Vegas Concerns me

#76
#76
chef3531 said:
Most of the money will be bet on Friday and Saturday. There's plenty of early money on this game, but history will tell you that the majority of wagers are placed the day of.
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That's when all the boosts come out. Same reason I'm waiting to put any more on the game.
 
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#77
#77
Yeah because the spread has mattered all year. Tennessee has been a spread killer this year. If I was a betting man I would not bet against this team. Still say Tennessee wins easier than people think unless kids go down there and lay an egg. Not happening. Vegas loses once more...they will stop making spreads so high. Disrespect.
 
#78
#78
tarantino-vega-brothers.jpg
 
#79
#79
DiderotsGhost said:
I don't know, but Sagarin's Recent model only has Georgia -5.5, and a lot of other quant models factoring in recent performance, show it much closer than Vegas. I'm surprised the line hasn't shifted to something closer to -6.
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I wouldn’t pay much attention to Sagarin on some things. I mean Sagarin is the model that has OSU’s SOS ranked higher than ours lol
 
#81
#81
The over/under for the Tenn Alabama game was 67.5. 101 points were scored. No overtime for that either. Vegas sometimes gets it way wrong.
 
#83
#83
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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Vegas sets odds to get action. Depending on that action, they'll change the line. Wouldn't have bet my heart in the first place. With my chitty luck, I'll always go against my heart when betting. If we lose, I get some money and it eases the pain. If they win and I lose money, I'm way happier even tho I'm poorer. I'm never right so I'm actually playing better odds than what Vegas offers anyway.
 
#84
#84
CAVPUT said:
Vegas sets odds to get action. Depending on that action, they'll change the line. Wouldn't have bet my heart in the first place. With my chitty luck, I'll always go against my heart when betting. If we lose, I get some money and it eases the pain. If they win and I lose money, I'm way happier even tho I'm poorer. I'm never right so I'm actually playing better odds than what Vegas offers anyway.
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I like to call that a happiness hedge. You'll find none of them in my bets for this game 🤣
 
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#86
#86
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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wonder who the refs will be?
 
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#88
#88
suave410ec said:
An interesting thread, Vegas has been slow to “catch up” to the Vols. We’re 7-1 ATS this year, with an average cover of the spread by 10.4 pts (including FL where we missed the spread by 5 pts). As other posts have alluded to, Vegas is not necessarily trying to “predict” the final outcome as they are trying to balance $$ on both sides… thus it’s more of a “public confidence” metric than a simulation/model. Georgia, fyi, is 4-4 ATS, and missing the spread by an average of 1 pt a game, although they have a high variance, they either cover or miss the spread by 20ish points, kinda strange.
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They’re going to miss this one by about 20 too when we win 41-30.
 
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#90
#90
I honestly think there is more pressure on Georgia now than Tennessee. We are playing with house money at this point. They expect to be at the top but know they aren’t right now and may not make the playoffs with a loss. We still have a chance beginning at the 1st ranking
 
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#91
#91
90 Vol said:
You are correct, sir.
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If you place a bet at +8 for Tennessee to win, we only got to win by 1 point for you to win the bet. Beating -8 dawgz means GA has to win by 9 for you to win. If Georgia wins by exactly 8 and the line is -8, then that's called a push, or a tie and you simply get your money back. Having said all that, Vols by 50!!!
 
#92
#92
Squatch_Vol said:
I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
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That logic is true, and very concerning to me as well. However, Vegas has been wrong about us all season. I may know someone who.... nevermind I might get in trouble.
 
#96
#96
I could also see Vegas trying to make up ground on the majority of people placing bets on UGA to win the national championship preseason. They also had bama favored around the same # so they could just be wrong again.
 
#99
#99
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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Vegas had us at 7.5 wins on the season 🤣
 
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