Vols #11 in Playoff as of 11/19

#53
#53
Lekvolrrah said:
Why even play conference championships going forward. They are meaningless now.
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That bye is a BIG damn deal. You get to play a team that’s probably beat to hell. (Of course you got beat to hell in the SECCG too, but got a week off to heal up). The team that LOSES the SECCG is probably gonna be in some deep poo-poo though -beat to hell and right back at against a team with a month off….
 
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#56
#56
Reading statements from the committee, they don’t care much about anything that happened more than a month ago. They have a heavy recency bias. Should work to our advantage if we finish STRONG
 
#58
#58
I have been studying this for over a week. This is how I see it, after we beat UTEP and Vandy.
The Vols many paths to make the playoffs-only need 1 of these:

ND loses to Army or USC=41%
Ohio State slaughters Indiana =~30%
Bama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn=24%
Texas loses big to Tam-22%
UF beats Ole Miss-22%
Georgia loses to Georgia Tech-10%
Bama whips TAM-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tam 10-3 -Vols pass Tam and Tex 10-2=~30%
Bama whips Texas-SECCG-Bama 11-2 Tex 11-2 -Vols pass Tex=~30%
Texas whips Bama in SECCG-Tex 12-1 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~5%
TAM whips Bama in SECCG-Tam 11-2 Bama 10-3 -Vols might pass Bama=~3%
 
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#59
#59
BigOrangeTrain said:
Bama isn’t losing to lowly OU or AU. So forget that. The UF game is intriguing. UF is much improved since we played them. OM is coming to the swamp. UF might beat them. Unknown people crap on IU but they are better than people think. OSU is no juggernaut. Unfortunately I don’t see OSU destroying them. As a matter of fact, I could see IU winning.
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OSU wins by two touchdowns. Beat absolutely nobody. Ohio State should have beat Oregon.
 
#60
#60
volfan102455 said:
Several of the teams above us will lose a game in the coming 3 weeks. For some it will be loss number 2, others it may be loss number 3.

- Indiana is at OSU
- Oregon will play either Indiana, OSU or PSU in the conference championship game
- Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, or UGA will play in SEC championship game (it would take a lot of crazy stuff for us to make that game)
- Miami is on a collision path with SMU if they get by Syracuse in two weeks

Other key matchups are with Notre Dame (Army and at USC)

At this point in the year, teams that lose seem to drop at least 4 to 5 positions with teams that win moving up.

We need to take care of business and Vandy (... I don't like typing this because it seems crazy but it is true ...) is not the Vandy of recent years so we need to be up and ready.
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Listening to the committee, pretty sure both teams in the SEC championship have a chance to make the playoffs. Even with a three loss on the record. They will be going by the strength of schedule.
 
#63
#63
Beat UTEP and Vandy and UT will slip even in barring something crazy happening. Crazy to think the SEC possibly could have 7 top 16 teams from the SEC. If SC beats Clemson and AM beats both Auburn and Texas.
 
#64
#64
Indiana even if they are really good, hasn't beaten anyone with 7 wins. Having only to play one ranked team all season is BS.

Miami will play the entire regular season not playing 1 ranked team. SMU only BYU. Clemson 2 ranked SEC teams. Crazy SMU Clemson or Miami didn't play one another. How will the ACC choose who plays in the title game? All 3 could be 7 and 1. Or Clemson or Miami vs SMU.
 
#66
#66
Gandalf said:
www.ncaa.com

College Football Playoff bracket, based on the current committee rankings

Here's what the College Football Playoff bracket would look like, using only the selection committee's rankings. This is not a projection of how things could look — only what the rankings are now and how that forms the bracket.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
www.on3.com

College Football Playoff Top 25: Third 2024 CFP rankings revealed

Check out the latest College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings after Week 12 of the season, featuring plenty of big shifts.
www.on3.com www.on3.com

College Football Playoff - Rankings

collegefootballplayoff.com collegefootballplayoff.com
View attachment 699064
  1. Oregon — highest-ranked conference champion (Big Ten) and seeded No. 1
  2. Ohio State — at-large pick (second team from the Big Ten), seeded No. 5
  3. Texas — second-highest-ranked conference champion (SEC) and seeded No. 2
  4. Penn State — at-large pick (third team in the Big Ten), seeded No. 6
  5. Indiana — at-large pick (fourth team from the Big Ten), seeded No. 7
  6. Notre Dame — at-large pick (independent), seeded No. 8
  7. Alabama — at-large pick (second team from the SEC), seeded No. 9
  8. Miami (Fla.) — third-highest-ranked conference champion (ACC) and seeded No. 3
  9. Ole Miss — at-large pick (third team from the SEC), seeded No. 10
  10. Georgia — at-large pick (fourth team from the SEC), seeded No. 11
  11. Tennessee — first team out of the CFP bracket
  12. Boise State — fourth-highest-ranked conference champion (Mountain West) and seeded No. 4
  13. SMU — second team out of the CFP bracket
  14. BYU — fifth-highest-ranked conference champion (Big 12), seeded 12
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First team out! We're #1 at something!!
 
#68
#68
I hate to say it, but I think our best bet lies with Florida. The most likely team that we replace in the current bracket would be Ole Miss. I think the committee is saying with their current rankings that they don’t really care about Indiana strength of schedule. I highly doubt they dropped them six spots for a loss at Ohio State, regardless of the margin. I think it’s highly unlikely that they go with five SEC teams versus three Big Ten teams. I think their aim is four and four. In addition, there is no way that they drop the loser of the SEC championship game for the Big Ten championship game out of the playoffs. Conversely, the loser of the big 12 and ACC championship games are definitely out.
 
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#71
#71
Hulavol said:
That bye is a BIG damn deal. You get to play a team that’s probably beat to hell. (Of course you got beat to hell in the SECCG too, but got a week off to heal up). The team that LOSES the SECCG is probably gonna be in some deep poo-poo though -beat to hell and right back at against a team with a month off….
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that's your opinion
 
#72
#72
volfan102455 said:
If the rankings don't change then if Texas loses, they still get the bye not Bama?

And if say 17th ranked Clemson beats 8th ranked Miami and Clemson wins - they both get in because you can't drop Miami?

Or unranked Colorado State beats 12th ranked Boise State both get in or you penalize Boise State because they lost when in fact they were in based on the rankings?

You also don't allow the winner to be repositioned so that they possibly draw a different team or secure a home field advantage or even a bye they would not get otherwise.

If the conference championship games are problematic, then just don't play them and let each conference decide "who is conference champ" without a game.
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Sheesh i see where i messed up in my explanation. No you are right. Texas would drop and should drop. But both teams would still be in was the point i was trying to make. Like if #8 and #9 play in a championship, they both would still be in the playoff when its over. They dont want the committee punishing teams inside top 10 for conference championship games. 17th Clemson and 8th Ranked Miami would be tough honestly, this is a great point, but SMU will be in ACC championship game over one of those 2 i think. Either way you make valid points aswell.
 
#74
#74
I played around creating a parlay bet for worst case scenario this weekend for Vols. The bet came at +287, meaning it is unlikely to happen.

Bama ML over Oklahoma
Notre Dame ML over Army
Texas ML over Kentucky
Penn St ML over Minnesota
Ole Miss ML over Florida
IU +14 over Ohio State (Meaning IU loses by less than 14, I believe we need them to lose by more than 14)

If you want to hedge your fandom bet this parlay at +287!
 
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