Vols vs Florida Atlantic? Thoughts?

#126
#126
walkenvol said:
Comparing Kenpon numbers between teams that don’t play a comparable schedule doesn’t seem like apples to apples. FAU is a good team, but between FAU, Michigan St, and Kansas St who would you rather play? I’m taking FAU and it’s not even close.
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When you get into the last eight teams it's as much about the coach than anything else. a guy like Izzo scares me to death.
 
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#127
#127
walkenvol said:
Comparing Kenpon numbers between teams that don’t play a comparable schedule doesn’t seem like apples to apples. FAU is a good team, but between FAU, Michigan St, and Kansas St who would you rather play? I’m taking FAU and it’s not even close.
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KenPom takes strength of schedule into account. I don’t pretend to know how that factors but that is why a team with only 3 losses (FAU) is ranked equivalent to a team with 12 (Michigan St.). One has an SOS of 129 and one a SOS of 6.

These computer rankings are sometimes the only way you can remotely try to compare teams with disparate schedules. Despite being a 9 seed, FAU is #22 in KenPom and #13 in NET. Point being, they are more like a 4 or 5 seed than a 9 seed. Point being, don’t sleep on them because of their seeding and the name on the jerseys. That said, I would take them all day before KSU or MSU because these computer ratings don’t take in being truly “battle tested” in these major conferences, coaches (like Izzo) etc. Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about MSU/KSU until we get past FAU.
 
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#128
#128
white65 said:
Our length is really gonna bother them. They play a 4 guard line up, the tallest of which is 6-4

They have one that that is 7-1 and another that is 6-8.

We should be able to defend them well.
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They have a deep bench, but so do we. I think it will be easy to sub Uros when they sub their 7 footer, not that we need Uros - could use Tobe or Jonas - because their 7 footer hasn't shot a 3 all year and has a much skinnier frame than any of our bigs.
 
#129
#129
walkenvol said:
Maybe a homeless man’s Mizzou. Who doesFAU have that remotely compares to Kobe Brown?
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Missouri is #55 (#8 offense/#176 defense) on KP, FAU is #22 (#30 offense/#36 defense)…they have 2 1st team all conference selections and then a 3rd team selection as well, folks need to slow down on looking past them. If FAU played Missouri on a neutral court they would be 3.5-4 point favorites.
 
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#130
#130
Tenacjim said:
KenPom takes strength of schedule into account. I don’t pretend to know how that factors but that is why a team with only 3 losses (FAU) is ranked equivalent to a team with 12 (Michigan St.). One has an SOS of 129 and one a SOS of 6.

These computer rankings are sometimes the only way you can remotely try to compare teams with disparate schedules. Despite being a 9 seed, FAU is #22 in KenPom and #13 in NET. Point being, they are more like a 4 or 5 seed than a 9 seed. Point being, don’t sleep on them because of their seeding and the name on the jerseys. That said, I would take them all day before KSU or MSU because these computer ratings don’t take in being truly “battle tested” in these major conferences, coaches (like Izzo) etc. Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about MSU/KSU until we get past FAU.
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Absolutely, everyone is playing well in the Sweet 16 - but I'd much rather play FAU than Memphis or Purdue, still doesn't mean Vols won't have a tremendous challenge on their hands.
 
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#132
#132
Tenacjim said:
KenPom takes strength of schedule into account. I don’t pretend to know how that factors but that is why a team with only 3 losses (FAU) is ranked equivalent to a team with 12 (Michigan St.). One has an SOS of 129 and one a SOS of 6.

These computer rankings are sometimes the only way you can remotely try to compare teams with disparate schedules. Despite being a 9 seed, FAU is #22 in KenPom and #13 in NET. Point being, they are more like a 4 or 5 seed than a 9 seed. Point being, don’t sleep on them because of their seeding and the name on the jerseys. That said, I would take them all day before KSU or MSU because these computer ratings don’t take in being truly “battle tested” in these major conferences, coaches (like Izzo) etc. Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about MSU/KSU until we get past FAU.
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I understand your point and don’t disagree that the computer models try to account for the weak schedule but I’m not sure if it’s really possible. What’s FAU’s record if they played 18 SEC or Big 10 games? Would be the same team but highly unlikely they’d be top 150 in Kenpom IMO. To me the only impressive win for them is Memphis. We may shoot ice cold and they shoot 3’s like that guy did from Purdue against Grant /Admiral and we lose - it’s college basketball. But, we’ve played 20+ better teams this season than FAU. JMO
 
#133
#133
It really comes down to officiating. If the refs are calling it tight, then we could be in trouble. They let the teams play in the Duke game and we dominated. If they call it tight and we get in foul trouble, it could be a long night. No different than any other game this season. We get in a rhythm, and we could win going away. The refs control the game with their whistle. Sad to say but they do. Go VOLS!!!
 
#134
#134
walkenvol said:
I understand your point and don’t disagree that the computer models try to account for the weak schedule but I’m not sure if it’s really possible. What’s FAU’s record if they played 18 SEC or Big 10 games? Would be the same team but highly unlikely they’d be top 150 in Kenpom IMO. To me the only impressive win for them is Memphis. We may shoot ice cold and they shoot 3’s like that guy did from Purdue against Grant /Admiral and we lose - it’s college basketball. But, we’ve played 20+ better teams this season than FAU. JMO
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I think we are saying the same thing. If they are is good as KenPom says and they went 11-7 or so in the SEC or Big 10, they would absolutely be top 150. For comparison sake, LSU is the worst team in the SEC and they are #147 in KenPom. Even the eye test says FAU is way better than LSU.
 
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#136
#136
kxtop said:
All teams are dangerous at this time of the year. Having said that, Tennessee has so much larger, so much better defensively than anything they have seen, we are better conditioned, so much more big game experience. They have some good three-point makers. We shall see!!
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The ball pressure the Vols apply is going to be like nothing they've ever experienced, we just can't go stone cold on offense for long stretches - that will be everything.
 
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#138
#138
Tenacjim said:
I think we are saying the same thing. If they are is good as KenPom says and they went 11-7 or so in the SEC or Big 10, they would absolutely be top 150. For comparison sake, LSU is the worst team in the SEC and they are #147 in KenPom. Even the eye test says FAU is way better than LSU.
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Fair enough on Kenpom ranking but the point is that their ranking would plummet if they played in a tough conference with their current roster. As for LSU, FAU doesn’t have one player half as good as KJ Williams who could put up 30 on them.
 
#139
#139
white65 said:
Our length is really gonna bother them. They play a 4 guard line up, the tallest of which is 6-4

They have one that that is 7-1 and another that is 6-8.

We should be able to defend them well.
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The question is going to be can we stay in front of them, they are going to be much smaller and quicker…if they continually beat us off the dribble and force us to collapse and leave shooters it will be a long night for us. Length is great but isn’t going to do much if they blow by us as all 4 positions, and their coach/national media is already drawing the attention of officials to not allow physical play from us.
 
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#140
#140
walkenvol said:
Why not? Everyone wants to talk about them having won 30 games as being relevant? They lost to Old Miss, UAB, and MTSU. Would we likely lose to those? Some of the teams they played I have never heard of before.
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They also beat Florida at their place, something we couldn’t do…
 
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#141
#141
bleedingTNorange said:
The question is going to be can we stay in front of them, they are going to be much smaller and quicker…if they continually beat us off the dribble and force us to collapse and leave shooters it will be a long night for us. Length is great but isn’t going to do much if they blow by us as all 4 positions, and their coach/national media is already drawing the attention of officials to not allow physical play from us.
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How much zone do you think Barnes will play?
 
#144
#144
bleedingTNorange said:
They also beat Florida at their place, something we couldn’t do…
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Second game of the season. Florida with a new coaching staff and implementing new offense / defense along with several new players. Very understandable that Florida could have dropped an early season game to a lesser team. Look at Texas A&M’s early season and where they finished without a new coach
 
#145
#145
volbound1700 said:
Loyola.
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Loyola was a much better team than FAU and I know their records is 33-3 but who have they beaten besides Memphis and if Penny had control of that team they would have lost to them. The Best Team they have beaten is probably UAB and Conference USA is not a top notch conference. Oh they beat Florida even the sun shines on a dog's ass every once in a while
 
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#146
#146
knoxvol52 said:
Loyola was a much better team than FAU and I know their records is 33-3 but who have they beaten besides Memphis and if Penny had control of that team they would have lost to them. The Best Team they have beaten is probably UAB and Conference USA is not a top notch conference
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I am not arguing against your point, just pointed out the last mid-major we lost to.
 
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#148
#148
JMSqb11 said:
The one big difference is they play in a much weaker conference. Mizzou is used to the physicality. I see this comparison all night and morning but FAU ain’t ready for the level of “mud”…. Sissy Hardaway couldn’t even prepare them for what’s coming
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If refs decide to call this game super tight not sure we have the physical level of mud type game you’re referring to
 
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#150
#150
FAU is a tough challenge. I think we got this one though.

There is definitely a recipe for us to lose (basically FAU hitting a lot of 3s and Tennessee not hitting their shots).

I think Barnes will have us ready and we pull this one out.
 
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