War in Ukraine

#3,026
#3,026
05_never_again said:
I always thought an invasion of the entire country was highly unlikely, and military action of any kind was probably less than a 50% chance, but perhaps he is going to send Russian regular troops into the area of Eastern Ukraine he already effectively controls and formally declare them to be part of Russia. I think that Putin's costs of doing so would be pretty low, so it probably is an attractive option right now. He has already achieved another goal, which is to get NATO/EU/US to listen and pay attention to him. He's probably talked to more Western leaders directly in the last 2 weeks than the last 5 years.
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Doesn't that still risk sanctions?
 
#3,028
#3,028
Velo Vol said:
Doesn't that still risk sanctions?
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Probably, but I don't think he cares about or fears those, and you already had Biden claim that a "minor incursion" wouldn't merit as big of a response.

Perhaps not, but I bet he would be able to roll into those areas without even firing a shot.
 
#3,030
#3,030
Rasputin_Vol said:
Just curious if any of you guys are paying attention to what is going on our northern border or keeping up with the long lasting chaos on our southern border? Seems like most of you care more about Ukraine's borders than your very own.
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Not me .. don’t care . Truckers should do what they want in Canada until they can’t , just like the cartel did in Mexico with those nasty ass avocados and Putin moving troops where he likes inside his country just like we do . We have enough to worry about here with a bad economy, liberals trying to infringe more on our 2a and rising bacon prices . 🤷‍♂️
 
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#3,034
#3,034
05_never_again said:
He's also playing up the "genocide" of ethnic Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk again, which was the original justification to send in the little green men in 2014. He made another statement to that effect today.

I always thought an invasion of the entire country was highly unlikely, and military action of any kind was probably less than a 50% chance, but perhaps he is going to send Russian regular troops into the area of Eastern Ukraine he already effectively controls and formally declare them to be part of Russia. I think that Putin's costs of doing so would be pretty low, so it probably is an attractive option right now. He has already achieved another goal, which is to get NATO/EU/US to listen and pay attention to him. He's probably talked to more Western leaders directly in the last 2 weeks than the last 5 years.
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What strategic wins would he get from just taking the DNR/LNR though? He already effectively owns them already and all this military buildup has resulted in more Western weapons being sent to Ukraine then ever before and making NATO relevant again? Other thing too if he is using military buildups to exert pressure then this has failed because any future buildups the West will call his bluff further pushing him towards nothing but a military option. I just don't see how Putin can claim a win without escalating? He gets no new security guarantees from the West, more weapons being sent to Ukraine, NATO is strengthened on Russia's borders, and Ukraine still moves closer to the West he would lose on everything he wanted to accomplish.
 
#3,036
#3,036
Burhead said:
I don't think that will happen. In fact future NATO membership is enshrined in their constitution now.
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If they invade and nobody does anything, and all that has to happen is they withdraw from their NATO plans to get a Russia pullback....you don't think they would? Why standby and wait for an alliance that was nowhere to be found when you needed them? Why let it even get to this point? Just withdraw your plans now. Germany will never let you in NATO. Don't be left standing at the altar.
 
#3,037
#3,037
hog88 said:
Your minor children an ally or dependent?
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In what regard? If I got into a brawl, I'd expect them to have my back.

But they're still my kids and I'll support them in any way I can within reason from the cradle to the grave.

Was this the best analogy you could come up with?
 
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#3,038
#3,038
Orangeburst said:
Called sucking at the teat. It has allowed these liberal socialist democracies to enact their domestic policy
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You know Canada has been the most reliable ally to sail through the Taiwan Strait, challenging China's claims of ownership of the navigable waters. They've also been forward deployed with U.S. forces in Afghanistan and throughout the wars in the middle east. To imply they haven't been pushing and actively supporting the U.S.'s foreign policy does a disservice to the their soldiers and sailors.

On a side note, why would they spend anywhere as much as we do on defense? They're in our back yard, if we're dumb enough not to send them a bill - then why bitch about them "sucking at the teat?" That's smart business on their part.
 
#3,039
#3,039
volinbham said:
What's everyone's thinking on why our official messaging is that an invasion is imminent; and most likely on Wednesday?

1. intel shows this and it's a sincere assessment with no agenda (yes I laughed when I wrote that)
2. intel shows this and it's designed to show our intel knows what's up - stated as a deterrent
3. intentional misinformation to act as deterrent
4. intentional misinformation to portray administration as the reason an invasion didn't happen
5. other

It just seems odd to me that we are continually beating the drum that Russia is about to invade when no other country (NATO, Ukraine or Russia) is doing so.
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5 other. Someone needed to cash the stock they shorted
 
#3,040
#3,040
Pacer92 said:
Putin trolled Biden..
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How so?

Has Biden conceded Putin's NATO concession requirements yet?

Perhaps all the Biden haterz folks could get on record with what an acceptable outcome would be. Should the West concede to Putin's demands or call his bluff, watch Ukraine fall and respond with sanctions?

These really are the only two options it would seem, but if you have another scenario where you'd be happy - feel free to share it.
 
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#3,041
#3,041
volinbham said:
What's everyone's thinking on why our official messaging is that an invasion is imminent; and most likely on Wednesday?

1. intel shows this and it's a sincere assessment with no agenda (yes I laughed when I wrote that)
2. intel shows this and it's designed to show our intel knows what's up - stated as a deterrent
3. intentional misinformation to act as deterrent
4. intentional misinformation to portray administration as the reason an invasion didn't happen
5. other

It just seems odd to me that we are continually beating the drum that Russia is about to invade when no other country (NATO, Ukraine or Russia) is doing so.
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I think it was just Zelensky postulating about the invasion time frame. A number of US intelligence officials have come out scratching their heads on why or how he came up with that. Leave it to Wall St. to sh*t the bed over Zalensky's FB post though...
 
#3,042
#3,042
Burhead said:
What strategic wins would he get from just taking the DNR/LNR though? He already effectively owns them already and all this military buildup has resulted in more Western weapons being sent to Ukraine then ever before and making NATO relevant again? Other thing too if he is using military buildups to exert pressure then this has failed because any future buildups the West will call his bluff further pushing him towards nothing but a military option. I just don't see how Putin can claim a win without escalating? He gets no new security guarantees from the West, more weapons being sent to Ukraine, NATO is strengthened on Russia's borders, and Ukraine still moves closer to the West he would lose on everything he wanted to accomplish.
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I think it cements Russia's control over the areas they already effectively control. Russia's control is very much unofficial and not even Russia recognizes them as independent countries or as part of Russia (yet). They are still in the state of limbo they have been in since 2014.

This whole ordeal has made NATO relevant again, but it has also made Putin relevant again. There has been one-way traffic between European capitals and Moscow for the last several weeks.
 
#3,045
#3,045
Septic said:
You know Canada has been the most reliable ally to sail through the Taiwan Strait, challenging China's claims of ownership of the navigable waters. They've also been forward deployed with U.S. forces in Afghanistan and throughout the wars in the middle east. To imply they haven't been pushing and actively supporting the U.S.'s foreign policy does a disservice to the their soldiers and sailors.

On a side note, why would they spend anywhere as much as we do on defense? They're in our back yard, if we're dumb enough not to send them a bill - then why bitch about them "sucking at the teat?" That's smart business on their part.
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The last Canadian soldier withdrew from Afghanistan in 2014 nearly eight years ago and committed no combat troops in Iraq. Meanwhile, Australia committed throughout the entire campaign as well as the War in Iraq just like the British. As stated, Canada's role as The major US ally is factually incorrect
 
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#3,046
#3,046
Septic said:
How so?

Has Biden conceded Putin's NATO concession requirements yet?

Perhaps all the Biden haterz folks could get on record with what an acceptable outcome would be. Should the West concede to Putin's demands or call his bluff, watch Ukraine fall and respond with sanctions?

These really are the only two options it would seem, but if you have another scenario where you'd be happy - feel free to share it.
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I don’t see NATO expanding anymore...not without consequences from Putin. And I don’t think sanctions scare or hurt Russia...to the contrary really.

Had there not been prior expansion of NATO right after the Cold War...just maybe it wouldn’t have come to a head with expansion into Ukraine. How about a European security structure that involves Russia more...the US, less?
 
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#3,047
#3,047
Septic said:
You know Canada has been the most reliable ally to sail through the Taiwan Strait, challenging China's claims of ownership of the navigable waters. They've also been forward deployed with U.S. forces in Afghanistan and throughout the wars in the middle east. To imply they haven't been pushing and actively supporting the U.S.'s foreign policy does a disservice to the their soldiers and sailors.

On a side note, why would they spend anywhere as much as we do on defense? They're in our back yard, if we're dumb enough not to send them a bill - then why bitch about them "sucking at the teat?" That's smart business on their part.
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Well for one thing they are not meeting their 2% military budget commitment. They are less than 1.5%, which doesn’t sound like much, but about $7B/ year short of what they themselves committed. I will say they have picked it up quite a bit since 2017. Wonder what else happened in 2017 that could of resulted?

1644956229352.png
 
#3,048
#3,048
Pacer92 said:
I don’t see NATO expanding anymore...not without consequences from Putin. And I don’t think sanctions scare or hurt Russia...to the contrary really.

Had there not been prior expansion of NATO right after the Cold War...just maybe it wouldn’t have come to a head with expansion into Ukraine. How about a European security structure that involves Russia more...the US less?
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How does any of this translate into a punked Biden?

Again, what is your winning scenario wherein Biden doesn't screw this up? Fight or concede?
 
#3,049
#3,049
Orangeburst said:
Well for one thing they are not meeting their 2% military budget commitment. They are less than 1.5%, which doesn’t sound like much, but about $7B/ year short of what they themselves committed. I will say they have picked it up quite a bit since 2017. Wonder what else happened in 2017 that could of resulted?

View attachment 434279
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Is that their problem or ours? How many of our allys are meeting their commitment.
 
#3,050
#3,050
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