War in Ukraine

[volinbham]

I think the point of making the highly specific predictions is to force Russia's hand and get the conflict out of this stalemate phase it is currently in. When you say something like "Russia is going to invade on February 16" it guarantees any invasion wouldn't happen on that day.

stalemate is a good thing given the realities of Spring on the horizon

 

[volinbham]

case in point - Biden just said he predicts an invasion will happen in the next couple days and has no plans to call Putin. Seems if you believe it's happening you'd be in an all out diplomacy initiative

 

[05_never_again]

stalemate is a good thing given the realities of Spring on the horizon

I don't think they see it that way - the current state of the conflict creates a great deal of uncertainty (will he or won't he). They'd rather it get out of that phase...he brings troops back from the border and everybody can exhale, or just go ahead and invade so they can justify more weapons sales to Ukraine and the harshest possible sanctions.

 

[hog88]

case in point - Biden just said he predicts an invasion will happen in the next couple days and has no plans to call Putin. Seems if you believe it's happening you'd be in an all out diplomacy initiative

One would think he'd be pulling out all diplomatic stops to prevent an invasion.

I'm still not convinced this whole thing isn't being coordinated between those controlling Biden and Putin himself.

 

[05_never_again]

One would think he'd be pulling out all diplomatic stops to prevent an invasion.

I'm still not convinced this whole thing isn't being coordinated between those controlling Biden and Putin himself.

That's entirely possible.

IMO, Biden strongly suspects that Russia isn't going to invade Ukraine, at least not the entire country, and the longer time goes on without an invasion (and especially when/if Putin pulls back troops) he can claim a diplomatic victory. There are political benefits both for Biden and Putin to play this game.

 

[volinbham]

here are the comments:

President Biden told reporters Thursday that his "sense" is that Russia will invade Ukraine "within the next several days," as troops and supplies continue to arrive at the border and international monitors report shelling across the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.

The latest: "Every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine," Biden said, warning that the risk is "very high." He added that there is still a "path to diplomacy," but that he has no plans to reach out to Russian President Vladimir Putin.


One wonders what that "path to diplomacy" is that can happen immediately.

 

[05_never_again]

here are the comments:

President Biden told reporters Thursday that his "sense" is that Russia will invade Ukraine "within the next several days," as troops and supplies continue to arrive at the border and international monitors report shelling across the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.

The latest: "Every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine," Biden said, warning that the risk is "very high." He added that there is still a "path to diplomacy," but that he has no plans to reach out to Russian President Vladimir Putin.


One wonders what that "path to diplomacy" is that can happen immediately.

"Path to diplomacy" from Russia's perspective means 1) a guarantee that Ukraine will never enter NATO and 2) NATO removes troops from Eastern Europe. Those are total non-starters.

 

[Burhead]

Russia still wants NATO to return to its 1997 borders and basically leave central and eastern Europe. Further expansion of NATO is one thing that could be discussed but even the strongest supporters of Putin and anti-NATO folks should be able to agree that is a crazy demand. They also expelled an American diplomat this burning and smoke was seen at the Russian embassy in Kyiv. The pace of things has picked up again from the Russian side.

 

[volinbham]

"Path to diplomacy" from Russia's perspective means 1) a guarantee that Ukraine will never enter NATO and 2) NATO removes troops from Eastern Europe. Those are total non-starters.

well then Biden is wrong to say there is still a path to diplomacy if he considers Russia's hard demands are non-starters.

 

[05_never_again]

well then Biden is wrong to say there is still a path to diplomacy if he considers Russia's hard demands are non-starters.

Well, even if there isn't a path he isn't going to come out and say it. Otherwise it looks like he failed.

Regardless of what you think about Russia or the West, I think most people except potentially Ras would agree that a guarantee of Ukraine (or any country) never entering NATO because it makes Putin feel uncomfortable and removing troops from NATO countries that have asked and want them to be there is totally unreasonable.

 

[tvolsfan]

 

[Burhead]

 

[Burhead]

I'm not sure if its an issue with the Google translation but the US embassy in Ukraine accused Russia of shelling the Ukrainian kindergarten early today.

 

[volinbham]

Well, even if there isn't a path he isn't going to come out and say it. Otherwise it looks like he failed.

Regardless of what you think about Russia or the West, I think most people except potentially Ras would agree that a guarantee of Ukraine (or any country) never entering NATO because it makes Putin feel uncomfortable and removing troops from NATO countries that have asked and want them to be there is totally unreasonable.

Oh I agree. I question that such a guarantee is the ONLY was to avoid Russia taking action.

 

[volinbham]

I'm not sure if its an issue with the Google translation but the US embassy in Ukraine accused Russia of shelling the Ukrainian kindergarten early today.

hope that's a translation issue

 

[landscapingvol]

Help me understand why you are looking for signs of war around every turn? I don't understand this way of thinking. Wars are always exponentially more difficult on the poor and the soldiers fighting them than the individuals who ignite them, and let's don't pretend that they are generally fought for noble reasons. They aren't. I hope and pray that no one dies especially no US soldiers in another ill conceived war.

 

[05_never_again]

Oh I agree. I question that such a guarantee is the ONLY was to avoid Russia taking action.

From Putin's perspective, NATO not complying with these non-starter demands means that it isn't listening to his security concerns. There is a difference between "not listening" and "not doing what I said," and a lot of people (including Putin) conflate the two, but whatever.

I don't think Putin has other concerns, aside from the non-starter ones, that NATO could agree to and make Putin back off.

 

[volfanhill]

Help me understand why you are looking for signs of war around every turn? I don't understand this way of thinking. Wars are always exponentially more difficult on the poor and the soldiers fighting them than the individuals who ignite them, and let's don't pretend that they are generally fought for noble reasons. They aren't. I hope and pray that no one dies especially no US soldiers in another ill conceived war.

I haven't perceived that at all from him. Just posting what he's finding

 

[Burhead]

Help me understand why you are looking for signs of war around every turn? I don't understand this way of thinking. Wars are always exponentially more difficult on the poor and the soldiers fighting them than the individuals who ignite them, and let's don't pretend that they are generally fought for noble reasons. They aren't. I hope and pray that no one dies especially no US soldiers in another ill conceived war.

I'm just posting information as it comes available from different sources following this. However the only ones wanting war are the Russians who invaded in 2014 and have amassed another large invasion force on the border. I don't support a war in Ukraine and I hope one doesn't happen and I don't want Americans to fight in one if there is. I do support Ukraine in its struggle to maintain its sovereignty, its young democracy, and for their ability to decide themselves who they want to be allies and friends with in the face of its larger neighborhood bully.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

So I'm thinking if Putin doesn't attack within the next week or so, his plan all along is one of bluffing to gain concessions from Ukraine / NATO.

So is this going to be the official excuse used when nothing happens?

I know the crawfishing and backpedaling are coming. I just need for you all to agree on one excuse and not start throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks.

 

[LouderVol]

Makes too much sense. Never will happen.

Cause that's how we got two world wars and major conflict every 20.

 

[MontyPython]

So is this going to be the official excuse used when nothing happens?

I know the crawfishing and backpedaling are coming. I just need for you all to agree on one excuse and not start throwing crap on the wall to see what sticks.

I have no idea what Putin is gonna do. But, yeah, I think economic considerations are probably his only major concern. Rolling over Ukraine - or most/part of it - military-wise won't be the hard part.

Here's a headscratcher. Note the timeline:

The United States on Thursday accused Russia of having expelled the second-most senior diplomat at the US embassy in Moscow without any justification, calling it an "escalatory" move at a time of heightened alert over the Ukraine crisis.

US Deputy Chief of Mission in Moscow Bart Gorman, who is second only to the ambassador at the embassy, was expelled by Russia earlier this year and given two weeks to depart the country, according to a senior US State Department official.

Gorman left Russia last week and has returned to the United States, the official said.

This diplomatic issue comes to the fore amid growing concerns about a Russian invasion of Ukraine and President Joe Biden's warning on Thursday that the US has "every indication" that Russia plans to attack Ukraine "in the next several days."

 

[Burhead]

Also concerning the separatist areas, there is some talk of evacuating civilians away from the front line starting tomorrow really hard to confirm anything they say.

 

[MontyPython]

Pretty confident Putin would talk to his "congress" post-invasion, not pre-invasion. Kinda ruins that element of surprise thingee otherwise.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Of all involved nations speaking on the matter from other NATO members to Ukraine and Russia, our administration is by the most aggressive in saying the invasion is going to happen. It's odd to watch and I can't figure why they are beating the drum of war so much more than any other interested nation.

Because this has very little to do with trying to save Ukraine. They have bigger goals in mind.