Russian Way of War from an Intelligence Perspective
Equipment
Russia has always been regarded as a near peer enemy based on equipment capability. Traditionally, we have relied on examining capability from foreign diplomatic sources and military action that RF have engaged in. Looking at equipment tables and order of battle information, many systems of Russian equipment was deemed near peer based on U.S. equipment. For example, the T-90S was supposed to be on par with the M1A Abrams. The BMP-3 on par with the M2 Bradley. Looking at order of battle information, roughly about 15% of the Russian military had T-90s in their Armor Battalions with the rest relying on upgraded T-80s and T-84 variants that were supposedly updated. There were also reports of their next gen tank (the T-14) that was supposed to be better than the Abrams, that would see action. Reality reared its head when it was discovered that the manufacturer has exaggerated capabilities and expenses were overrun. This evolved into limited production of the T-14 that was not combat ready. I think I read that there were less than 20 or 30 made so far. RF air's SU generation fighters were deemed on par with F-15 and F-16 generation fighters minus the newest SU variant (SU-35) being on par with the F-22. I believe the last I read, there were less than 20 operational SU-35s. The biggest issue with all the Russian equipment sets was maintenance. The RF has been largely unable to maintain a large portion of their main battle systems. The largest capability advantage that the RF had over non-near peer threats was SSM and AD systems. The current conflict has shown that AD systems such as the S300 have about a 40% accuracy rate. SSM systems have been harder to gauge accuracy due to saturation of fires.
Personnel and Doctrine
Russia has a small core of what we would call professional Soldiers. As with many modern militaries, the RF have heavily relied on conscripts and reserve forces. The concept of reserve forces for Russia means Soldiers who have served their time and can be recalled within 10 years of leaving service. Its akin to our Individual Ready Reserve. There are no training or readiness standards attached to RF reserve forces. In the early stages of the Ukraine Conflict, reports of Russian Soldiers deserting and/or sabotaging equipment were rampant. Additionally, proof of training inadequacy/ lack of operational efficiency were rampant and still are observable to date. There have been several videos of RF Soldiers in mass panic from the onset of contact. Instead of seeking cover, returning fire, and maneuvering; RF units were in a mass panic running away. This brings me to my next point. As with many militaries, RF structure does not allow for leaders who arent officers to make tactical decisions and improvise. The NCO Corps concept is non-existent in the Russian military. Additionally, junior officers arent given authority to make decisions either.
TL
R Version- Russian equipment capability isnt what we thought it was. Russian tactical doctrine hasnt evolved to operate on the modern battlefield. Russian logistics couldnt keep up with the pace of battle which represents poor planning. Russian training proficiency isnt on par with modern western militaries. Russia's main deterrent to keep NATO from getting involved is nukes. With all that being said, Russia has had issues dealing with light infantry operating in decentralized teams equipped with man-portable AT systems, AD systems, and COTS drone technology. The last wildcard that was presented that is causing fits to RF is the introduction of long range fire system being provided to Ukraine (specifically HIMARs).
Predicted Outlook
I see this turning into a frozen conflict that with have shifting boundaries in smaller offensives. Russia wanted to oust the current regime. Ukraine has stated that they will not give up territory and that they want Crimea back. Unless Russia get frustrated and starts attacking NATO forces (MDCOA), I dont think there will be much change in the next 6-9 months. Eventually the attrition of resources will catch up to both sides. Despite Ukraine being smaller, they are being funded and supplied by NATO.
