War in Ukraine

#39,202
#39,202
Rasputin_Vol said:
He tried for 8 years, genius.
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What was Putin willing to give up? Why was Putin even involved in the first place beyond the big stick he carries? Putin was involved from day one to ensure he got as much territory as possible. And he was willing to waste as many Donbassian lives as it took.
 
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#39,204
#39,204
Thinking Russian forces have officially culminated.

They're moving significant #s of BTGs from Donbas to Kherson to try and stop UKR offensive. And since HIMARS has popped their supply chain cherry, they've made virtually zero advances in the past month. Now they got even less troops.

Plus Putin scraping the barrel for new cannon fodder troops.

Soon the fun starts...

UKR will take back Kherson.

Putin will lose the support of his inner circle when they realize the war is a lost cause.

Putin will simply disappear.
 
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#39,205
#39,205
Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukraine and may be halting the Slovyansk campaign for the time being. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian forces withdrew airborne tactical groups from Donetsk Oblast and redeployed the units to occupied Kherson Oblast territories two weeks ago.[1] Skibitsky added that Russian forces are also redeploying elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) operating in Slovyansk to southern Ukraine and are transferring a large number of troops to Crimea to prepare to defend occupied Kherson and/or Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counteroffensives. The UK Defense Ministry also noted that Russian forces likely identified Zaporizhia Oblast as a vulnerable front in need of reinforcement, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are regrouping in Zaporizhia Oblast.[2] Social media footage has showed Russian forces moving equipment and personnel to both Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in recent weeks.[3]

The Russian withdrawal of some troops from northern Donetsk Oblast will deprive the Slovyansk effort of necessary combat power, in the same way that Russian forces neglected the Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts fronts during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast. The withdrawal will likely create an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to launch a counteroffensive on the Izyum axis, just as Russian capture of Luhansk Oblast allowed Ukraine to set conditions for a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. The Russian redeployment of troops to Zaporizhia Oblast also suggests that Ukrainian counteroffensives are not confined to Kherson Oblast and will likely take place throughout the southern axis.
 
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#39,208
#39,208
FZIvOQQWAAEscjm
 
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#39,213
#39,213
Rasputin_Vol said:
Occam's Razor and just a bit of common sense would suggest that killing prisoners that are already in your custody with a bomb or missile strike is a bit over the top. If you desired to kill prisoners, then there are far better ways of going about this that would not jeopardize your own guards/soldiers that are watching these men and damage or destroy your own infrastructure.

What could be likely and more reasonable is that there was evidence that these prisoners were cooperating with the Russians and were giving them information about the Ukrainians and the Ukies got wind of this and decided to take care of these guys to prevent anymore flows of info. That would be Occam's Razor.
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Your Occam's razor makes a number of assumptions that are unknown at the time.

1. It was a guided munition, from either side.
1a. It worked as intended (right target). There have been plenty of videos of missiles suddenly divert and hit empty ground.
2. The Ukrainians knew there were prisoners were being held there.
3. The Ukrainians knew prisoners were leaking info.
4. The Ukrainians knew it was these prisoners talking. With how well the russians are doing they have to have more than 1 POW camp.
5. Funnily enough it also assumes the Russians were committing war crimes to get the leaks.
5a. It also assumes that it was actionable Intel worth killing over.
6. That the Ukrainians have the capability to hit that target. Cant find out where the closest HIMARS is located. But the town where the prisoners were held is almost exactly at the longest possible range of the Himars from the actual front lines.

Also your occam razor ignores that the killed prisoners were the Azob guys captured after holding out in the industrial plant in Mauripol. So much for the Nazis running Ukraine if they are blowing up their own guys. Also how would those guys have actionable Intel after being cut off for months on end?
 
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#39,214
#39,214
Rasputin_Vol said:
I have no idea. But did you read what I posted? I clearly said that you would be putting those guards in jeopardy.
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Your whole argument is that its simpler to believe that one nation would purposefully kill it's own soldiers, while the other nation wouldnt even dare putting its soldier in danger.

Besides the obvious danger that second country put its soldiers by invading another country.
 
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#39,215
#39,215
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#39,216
#39,216
LouderVol said:
Your Occam's razor makes a number of assumptions that are unknown at the time.

1. It was a guided munition, from either side.
1a. It worked as intended (right target). There have been plenty of videos of missiles suddenly divert and hit empty ground.
2. The Ukrainians knew there were prisoners were being held there.
3. The Ukrainians knew prisoners were leaking info.
4. The Ukrainians knew it was these prisoners talking. With how well the russians are doing they have to have more than 1 POW camp.
5. Funnily enough it also assumes the Russians were committing war crimes to get the leaks.
5a. It also assumes that it was actionable Intel worth killing over.
6. That the Ukrainians have the capability to hit that target. Cant find out where the closest HIMARS is located. But the town where the prisoners were held is almost exactly at the longest possible range of the Himars from the actual front lines.

Also your occam razor ignores that the killed prisoners were the Azob guys captured after holding out in the industrial plant in Mauripol. So much for the Nazis running Ukraine if they are blowing up their own guys. Also how would those guys have actionable Intel after being cut off for months on end?
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Institute for the Study of War
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the killing of 53 Ukrainian POWs in an explosion at a Russian-controlled prison in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Two US officials anonymously confirmed to Politico on August 1 that no traces of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Ukraine’s most precise artillery system, were found at the prison site.[4] The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine fired HIMARS and precision-guided rockets to kill Ukrainian POWs and deter Ukrainian defectors. Satellite and other imagery from the site indicate that the attack only damaged one building, did not collapse the walls of that building, and did not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly suggesting that the destruction of the prison was the result of either a precision strike or an internally planted incendiary or explosive.[5] One US official told Politico that “the evidence showed the attack was not conducted by Kyiv.” If Ukraine had used something other than HIMARS to conduct the strike, the attack would almost certainly have left collateral damage around the facility, including craters and other damaged buildings. Given the US assessment that HIMARS were not used in the attack, ISW assesses that Russia was responsible for this attack on Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
 
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#39,217
#39,217
USF grad in TN said:
Institute for the Study of War
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the killing of 53 Ukrainian POWs in an explosion at a Russian-controlled prison in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Two US officials anonymously confirmed to Politico on August 1 that no traces of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Ukraine’s most precise artillery system, were found at the prison site.[4] The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine fired HIMARS and precision-guided rockets to kill Ukrainian POWs and deter Ukrainian defectors. Satellite and other imagery from the site indicate that the attack only damaged one building, did not collapse the walls of that building, and did not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly suggesting that the destruction of the prison was the result of either a precision strike or an internally planted incendiary or explosive.[5] One US official told Politico that “the evidence showed the attack was not conducted by Kyiv.” If Ukraine had used something other than HIMARS to conduct the strike, the attack would almost certainly have left collateral damage around the facility, including craters and other damaged buildings. Given the US assessment that HIMARS were not used in the attack, ISW assesses that Russia was responsible for this attack on Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Click to expand...
Oh you’ve done it now 😂
 
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#39,218
#39,218
USF grad in TN said:
Institute for the Study of War
ISW assesses that Russian forces were responsible for the killing of 53 Ukrainian POWs in an explosion at a Russian-controlled prison in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Two US officials anonymously confirmed to Politico on August 1 that no traces of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Ukraine’s most precise artillery system, were found at the prison site.[4] The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine fired HIMARS and precision-guided rockets to kill Ukrainian POWs and deter Ukrainian defectors. Satellite and other imagery from the site indicate that the attack only damaged one building, did not collapse the walls of that building, and did not leave any shell craters in the vicinity, very strongly suggesting that the destruction of the prison was the result of either a precision strike or an internally planted incendiary or explosive.[5] One US official told Politico that “the evidence showed the attack was not conducted by Kyiv.” If Ukraine had used something other than HIMARS to conduct the strike, the attack would almost certainly have left collateral damage around the facility, including craters and other damaged buildings. Given the US assessment that HIMARS were not used in the attack, ISW assesses that Russia was responsible for this attack on Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
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How the eff would US sources be able to say that no traces of HIMARS was found two-ish days after the attack, before they have been allowed to physically visit the site?
 
#39,219
#39,219
LouderVol said:
How the eff would US sources be able to say that no traces of HIMARS was found two-ish days after the attack, before they have been allowed to physically visit the site?
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Because we’ve had Intel people on the ground from day 1 that’s why. Also there are satellite pictures of the site it’s a singular detonation point centered in one structure with no surrounding craters or other obvious detonation points.
 
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#39,221
#39,221
NorthDallas40 said:
Because we’ve had Intel people on the ground from day 1 that’s why. Also there are satellite pictures of the site it’s a singular detonation point centered in one structure with no surrounding craters or other obvious detonation points.
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We have people behind the lines at a Ukrainian POW camp with enough knowledge to judge HIMAR from non?

Does HIMAR, that we have given Ukraine, only come with one type of warhead?
 
#39,222
#39,222
LouderVol said:
We have people behind the lines at a Ukrainian POW camp with enough knowledge to judge HIMAR from non?

Does HIMAR, that we have given Ukraine, only come with one type of warhead?
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HIMARS is the launcher. It supports several missile munitions.

And while I can’t prove it I absolutely believe the Christians In Action have been their from day 1 and even before. There is no way they could pass that up. And yes they know how to do BDA evaluations and if they need help they get on the sat comms back to Langley and give them the pics. Langley of course already had the sat pics from the NGA

Edit: NGA runs the sats NSA runs signals intelligence so corrected the agency with the sat pics.
 
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#39,223
#39,223
NorthDallas40 said:
HIMARS is the launcher. It supports several missile munitions.

And while I can’t prove it I absolutely believe the Christians In Action have been their from day 1 and even before. There is no way they could pass that up. And yes they know how to do BDA evaluations and if they need help they get on the sat comms back to Langley and give them the pics. Langley of course already had the sat pics from the NSA.
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Yeah I am not willing to take those Christian's on their anonymous word.
 
#39,225
#39,225
NorthDallas40 said:
HIMARS is the launcher. It supports several missile munitions.

And while I can’t prove it I absolutely believe the Christians In Action have been their from day 1 and even before. There is no way they could pass that up. And yes they know how to do BDA evaluations and if they need help they get on the sat comms back to Langley and give them the pics. Langley of course already had the sat pics from the NSA.
Click to expand...

Contractors from the SAD.
 
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