War in Ukraine

#47,456
#47,456
That's what we're missing--some Russian corporate goodness. Trade in your auto for one of these babies.

Lada%20Vesta%20Green%20web.jpg
 
#47,457
#47,457
Rasputin_Vol said:
Lower standard of living in other words.

So for you Boomers, I don't want to hear you speak another word about alleged lazy millennials or GenZs when you all even acknowledge that the country is in decline and your children and grandchildren will not have the same earning potential and standard of living that you all enjoyed.
Click to expand...
@DonjoVol
Am I reading this correctly or am I out in left field?
 
#47,459
#47,459
Rasputin_Vol said:
It's coming back to bite them in mainly one sector of their economy. Either way, if their real estate bubble bursts, worst case is that a few real estate guys lose everything, but they will still have that infrastructure in place. The wealth might disappear, but the physical properties remain.

China does indeed manipulate their currency in order to get favorable currency exchange rates to help their exports. No different than the currency manipulation the FED does and has been doing since 2008. The only difference is that China has more to their economy than just service sector, real estate, financialization, and Only Fans. They actually have manufacturing, mining and agriculture along with it.
Click to expand...

I know this isn't a China thread so I will keep it short. You have no idea what you are talking about. A large majority of the savings of the Chinese "middle class" is tied up in real estate speculation. They start paying mortgages on properties before they are even built. The local governments get the majority of their funds from those fees plus land and development fees they charge the builders. The builders get the loans from the government banks. The "middle class" have slowly stopped paying those mortgages. That means the builders do not have new money to complete projects, the governments don't have new money for expenditures, and the "middle class" no longer has an asset worth the money invested. The manufacturing is all tied to growth that can't be sustained. When the real estate bubble collapses there, it will be much, much worse than any real estate crash we have ever had. The only manufacturing left will be for exports.

None of what I mentioned above is even bad compared to their population loses that have already started and will accelerate in the next 20 years.

Stick to your Russian analysis. While I don't agree with everything you say about Russia, at least you have a little more knowledge on that topic.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LouderVol, AM64 and Velo Vol
#47,460
#47,460
825VOL said:
I know this isn't a China thread so I will keep it short. You have no idea what you are talking about. A large majority of the savings of the Chinese "middle class" is tied up in real estate speculation. They start paying mortgages on properties before they are even built. The local governments get the majority of their funds from those fees plus land and development fees they charge the builders. The builders get the loans from the government banks. The "middle class" have slowly stopped paying those mortgages. That means the builders do not have new money to complete projects, the governments don't have new money for expenditures, and the "middle class" no longer has an asset worth the money invested. The manufacturing is all tied to growth that can't be sustained. When the real estate bubble collapses there, it will be much, much worse than any real estate crash we have ever had. The only manufacturing left will be for exports.

None of what I mentioned above is even bad compared to their population loses that have already started and will accelerate in the next 20 years.

Stick to your Russian analysis. While I don't agree with everything you say about Russia, at least you have a little more knowledge on that topic.
Click to expand...

Things will collapse there just like everywhere else, why? Lack of U.S. Dollars coming on the market. Its all speculation or a bubble, which is why the Russians were basically able to cause a $2 trillion margin call on europe with about $20 billion of goods. Leverage.

What investment do you think will escape the fury of a U.S. Dollar shortage? If the lack of U.S. Dollars gets really bad... go long body bags.

That means the builders do not have new money to complete projects, the governments don't have new money for expenditures, and the "middle class" no longer has an asset worth the money invested.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Not enough U.S. Dollars to keep the bubble alive. (Hint, I previous posted that foreign credit lines are in the beginning stages of being opened... why? Lack of dollars)

The current system has run its course. My guess you're going to see some major fireworks in the next 6 months or so.

Looks like death below to me.

800px-Federal_funds_rate_history_and_recessions.png
 
Last edited:
#47,464
#47,464
So the Russians are even coming to grips with outsourcing vs keeping things in house/domestic. If only we could have leadership that would keep America first...

 
#47,472
#47,472
LSU-SIU said:
I'm not talking specific plants or industries, sure, but over the whole manufacturing section... most of the efficiencies are there... baby steps now and has been for quite some time.

The United States will not regain significant manufacturing in my lifetime.

- high taxes
- high regulation (if any ability at all to start manufacturing)
- high healthcare costs
- high wages
- shortage of labor
- limited amount of electricity

As I tell the EV folks, you ain't going anywhere in that car without electricity (or cheap electricity). It just simply doesn't exist and I doubt anyone is going to invest heavily in this country in that anytime soon.

The U.S. electricity production is nosedive in per capita terms.

Electricity-Generation-by-major-energy-source-graph-1024x666.jpg
Click to expand...

You are correct in some things here, and I don't know how old you are when you say "Not in my lifetime", but I will say that Manufacturing changes in non union facilities are easy and they help solve the labor shortage issue. I work with this every day, and due to improvements in my company and other vendors involved in the process less labor is needed. It's as simple as that. That is key to producing more here, and not relying on over seas manufacturing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AM64
#47,475
#47,475
Rasputin_Vol said:
What's funny about that? How much external debt does China have compared to any other country?
Click to expand...

Looks like we are pointing arrows in the opposite direction here. I was referring to China's games in manipulating their GDP. Ghost cities, their current real estate crisis, ect. The are in serious trouble.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AM64
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top