War in Ukraine

[AM64]

I can't believe the leaders in Europe were dumb enough to believe that US LNG would be cheaper and more reliable than pipeline gas coming from Russia. Its like Macron and Scholz are surprised that they are having to pay 4X for far less volume. Plus, they don't even have enough LNG port facilities or LNG tankers to replace Russian gas right now. Just dumb.

I couldn't believe the leaders in Europe were actually stupid enough to sole source energy needs either, but they did. Wouldn't have mattered if it was Russia or any other source; you don't put all your eggs in one basket, and you don't shut down diverse internal energy sources for immediate gratification - cheap Russian gas. The world has generally lost competent leadership across the board (corporate, investment, and political) and is increasing being driven by short term based fools.

 

[AM64]

Tyranny, what tyranny?

Following their own laws, and the agreement Yanukoych signed?

The only tensions that were flared were the actual Russians. Which is why they kicked out the local elected officials from Dontesk and Luhansk. You would think those local officials would share the same sentiments as their consistutients and fellow eastern Ukrainians, and would stay to welcome the Russians. But they didnt. They got rounded up and kicked out by men in Russian military gear.

The Russians were never as supported, and/or the anti-Kiev sentiment was overblown by the Russian media from the start. Which is why you didnt see mass support for the Russian invasion in Ukraine, which is why their offensive failed. Another fact that you cant accept.

The next leap of logic you guys make, read that as ignoring facts, is that for some reason the only place there was even a bit of talk about independence was where the Russians showed up. No where else in Ukraine were there even whispers of independence after the alledged coup. Even in Dontesk and Luhansk there wasnt any build up. A few protests that were peaceful, and then just BOOM straight up independence. That doesnt pass the smell test. Look at any rebellion or independence movement. There is always some build up, always some non-local support. No one goes from "I am upset enough to peacefully protest", to "I am grabbing my new, AK102s, t92s, and 2S19s out of the iron mine and overthrowing my government" the next day.

Look at the US. Even all our our wackos reaction to Bidens "Coup" took multiple steps. formal complaints thru elected officials, formal and peaceful protests, mass demonstrations, and then whatever you want to call 1/6. And it had been going on for months. The Maidan protests took a similar path. Formal complaints, peaceful protests for months, with mass demonstrations, that eventually turned bloody, that lead to a formal agreement from BOTH sides, to the president fleeing to Russia. China/Hong Kong is similar.

That's the natural evolution of a major political unrest. Dontesk was something completely different. The new elections, that Yanukoych signed off on, hadnt even happened yet that was in May. They didnt even wait to see what was going to happen from the last act of the guy they were so tied too they revolted. They went from a 3 to an 11, that's too big of a step to be natural.

Russians have decades of practice sending in chit stirrers to incite revolution. That's the basis of communist revolution - convince groups of people they are disadvantaged and stir them to revolution. Soviets/Russians used it across the globe; they are masters at seeding discord.

 

[MontyPython]

Do you think Ukraine will take back Crimea? If so when?

This board is populated mostly by pro-Ukrainian folks like me. We also have a small contingent of pro-Russians.

Taking back Crimea would probably require the entire Russian invasion to collapse. The entire invasion probably collapses if the war continues to go badly, and Putin is removed from power. Putin is probably removed from power if Ukraine is able to pull off a couple more huge offensives and re-take large swaths of land back.

It would appear that Ukraine is currently in a lull with its offensives due to mud. Once winter sets in and the ground freezes, we'll probably see them attack again.

At the end of the day, Russia will undoubtedly lose much of the land they currently occupy. I believe the war will likely end this year. Given the long-term damage the Russian economy faces, they *need* to get back into the good graces of the majority of the world. Alternatively, all the economic gains that Putin has brought to his people will become unraveled. Putin's successor hopefully will recognize this fact, and work to make peace.

Ultimately, I believe Putin will be ousted and his dirt nap will ensue. Sooner than later.

 

[MontyPython]

For our resident stooges...

Should you ever doubt that Russia's invasion is both wrong, illegal and despised by the rest of the civilized world, remember...

United Nations — The United Nations General Assembly Wednesday voted overwhelmingly to condemn Russia's so-called annexation of a large swath of Ukraine, and demanded that Russia withdraw its troops from those areas. Saudi Arabia was among the nations who voted in favor of the resolution.

By a 143-5 margin, the General Assembly condemned Russia's "attempted illegal annexation" of four Ukrainian territories, and called for Russia to "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces."

The five nations who voted against the measure were Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus. China was among 35 nations who abstained from voting.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Deindustrialization in the world was kicked off when a bunch of short sighted people in countries with higher labor rates and standards of living decided that globalization was a great idea. Europe is just as guilty as the US for the growth of industry in China and elsewhere and the loss of industry in their own countries. Perhaps the people at the top (corporate, investment, and politics) driven by greed understood the consequences - a lot of other non-thinking people just thought globalization was a great idea - some for the promise of cheap goods, some for "free" trade, and some for "social justice" (or whatever their BS rationale was).

OK, I see what you are saying here, but what does that have to do with Europe buying energy from Russia vs the US? Even if they deindustrize they need to keep warm in the winter.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I couldn't believe the leaders in Europe were actually stupid enough to sole source energy needs either, but they did.

So they traded being a victim of Russia to being a victim of the US.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Russians have decades of practice sending in chit stirrers to incite revolution.

The Russians couldn't hold our jock straps when it comes to counter-revolutions and regime change operations.

 

[happy-go_vol]

For our resident stooges...

Should you ever doubt that Russia's invasion is both wrong, illegal and despised by the rest of the civilized world, remember...

United Nations — The United Nations General Assembly Wednesday voted overwhelmingly to condemn Russia's so-called annexation of a large swath of Ukraine, and demanded that Russia withdraw its troops from those areas. Saudi Arabia was among the nations who voted in favor of the resolution.

By a 143-5 margin, the General Assembly condemned Russia's "attempted illegal annexation" of four Ukrainian territories, and called for Russia to "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces."

The five nations who voted against the measure were Russia, Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus. China was among 35 nations who abstained from voting.

Strong words from the UN. That and 10 bucks will get you a fat free latte

 

[NorthDallas40]

I couldn't believe the leaders in Europe were actually stupid enough to sole source energy needs either, but they did. Wouldn't have mattered if it was Russia or any other source; you don't put all your eggs in one basket, and you don't shut down diverse internal energy sources for immediate gratification - cheap Russian gas. The world has generally lost competent leadership across the board (corporate, investment, and political) and is increasing being driven by short term based fools.

What’s even more stupid is like our current admin there are gas fields that they refuse to develop. They won’t get out of their own damn way.

 

[AM64]

OK, I see what you are saying here, but what does that have to do with Europe buying energy from Russia vs the US? Even if they deindustrize they need to keep warm in the winter.

I didn't connect the Pepe Escobar blip to mean that European deindustrialization was a result of NG supply; I could see short term shutdowns as the effect of sudden energy shortages, but "deindustrialization" is a long term process that would have started years ago. Both US and European deindustrialization would likely be due to globalization - not shorter term energy supply. The problem for Europe now is how do they restart their older power generation, and do they admit their flawed thought process and start using their offshore oil supply again. They've got a problem with being blinded by "environmentalism" and being unable to see the big picture.

 

[hog88]

The Russians couldn't hold our jock straps when it comes to counter-revolutions and regime change operations.

True, Russians are incompetent at most things.

 

[AM64]

So they traded being a victim of Russia to being a victim of the US.

Much of Europe really traded being energy independent (or as close as you can get) in the name of environmentalism to being an energy victim period.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I didn't connect the Pepe Escobar blip to mean that European deindustrialization was a result of NG supply;

Really? How else can you have industry without cheap reliable energy? That is the obvious driver of all of this European chaos.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Much of Europe really traded being energy independent (or as close as you can get) in the name of environmentalism to being an energy victim period.

True, but then they doubled down on dumb this year by severing ties to cheap, reliable Russian energy and tying themselves to the US hustle. Russia would still be selling energy to Europe right now had it not been for sanctions.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

True, Russians are incompetent at most things.

Space Race - Wikipedia

 

[AM64]

Really? How else can you have industry without cheap reliable energy? That is the obvious driver of all of this European chaos.

I completely agree with industry and cheap energy; it's why I keep stating what I do about the damage done by speculative commodities exchanges. High fuel costs are economy killers. It's the word "deindustrialization" I have a problem with; "shutdown" would imply seasonal or short term interruption - "deindustrialization" seems to imply a long term loss of industry. The quoted article seems to blame a long term process on an overnight change, and that doesn't make sense.

 

[BreatheUT]

I want to make it clear that I'm not on either side of this issue. I'm on the side of common sense and some fiscal restraint. I do find it funny that leftists and neo-cons are in the same foxhole.

I don't follow it day to day like it's a soap opera like it appears many on this thread do. I don't believe it's in our best interest to have any enemy expanding their territory however I do find it odd that leftists don't have this same venom for China. For the most part they seem to be in sync with the same outrage as a party. I do find it odd the Russia chooses to go into Ukraine under the last two democrat administration's. I'm thinking this is not coincidence. Maybe it doesn't help when you intentionally mock the enemy because they aren't the 1980's threat they once were. Maybe it's also why democrat leadership and celebrities, which is also democrat leadership, allow China to bully them. It does concern me that we are depleting almost every stockpile at our disposal while we are training Woke ideas that can't win a war. Those folks would never go to the front lines or in harms way that's why they don't mind playing the game. It's becoming less and less honorable to enlist out of love for the country because who wants to fight to protect American Marxists.

 

[AM64]

True, but then they doubled down on dumb this year by severing ties to cheap, reliable Russian energy and tying themselves to the US hustle. Russia would still be selling energy to Europe right now had it not been for sanctions.

You often go off on war as not a way to solve problems, and most of us would agree. Obviously Russia wasn't going with diplomacy, so the remaining option is economic - sanctions, but you don't like that either. Sanctions hurt both sides - just as war does - nobody wins really. The obvious solution would have been for Russia to stay home and not invade another country.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I completely agree with industry and cheap energy; it's why I keep stating what I do about the damage done by speculative commodities exchanges. High fuel costs are economy killers. It's the word "deindustrialization" I have a problem with; "shutdown" would imply seasonal or short term interruption - "deindustrialization" seems to imply a long term loss of industry. The quoted article seems to blame a long term process on an overnight change, and that doesn't make sense.

That overnight change will already set Europe back 3-5 years. By that point, how many companies won't pull up stakes and move to the US or somewhere else with cheaper energy and labor? You can't just build LNG port facilities and LNG tankers at the snap of a finger.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You often go off on war as not a way to solve problems, and most of us would agree. Obviously Russia wasn't going with diplomacy, so the remaining option is economic - sanctions, but you don't like that either. Sanctions hurt both sides - just as war does - nobody wins really. The obvious solution would have been for Russia to stay home and not invade another country.

WTF are you talking about? They held back for 7-8 years hoping for the Minsk Agreements to be implemented, only to find out in the past few days that the West was not an honest broker in those ceasefire agreements. Angel Merkel admitted that the Minsk Agreements were nothing more than a strategy to buy time for the Ukrainians to build up their military.

For you to say what you posted with a straight face shows either ignorance of this fact or you are simply a liar.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Space Race - Wikipedia

As opposed to

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You often go off on war as not a way to solve problems, and most of us would agree. Obviously Russia wasn't going with diplomacy, so the remaining option is economic - sanctions, but you don't like that either. Sanctions hurt both sides - just as war does - nobody wins really. The obvious solution would have been for Russia to stay home and not invade another country.

In the past and with other small sh^thole countries, sanctions were definitely lopsided leverage tools for The West/US. But with a weakened West and a large country like Russia that has India and China as trading partners, the West sh^t in the bed and have no reverse gear. So now they ae mulling around with yet a 9th round of sanctions.

Maybe the West should try honest negotiating/diplomacy and some humility this time.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

The obvious solution would have been for Russia to stay home and not invade another country.

The obvious solution would have been to abide by the Minsk Ceasefire agreements.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Maybe the West should try honest negotiating/diplomacy and some humility this time.

Time to drop this again!

 

[NorthDallas40]

The obvious solution would have been to abide by the Minsk Ceasefire agreements.

The obvious solution would be to abide by the Budapest Memorandum Moe. But I realize diplomacy only begins for you stooges after Russia invaded and occupied territory that isn’t theirs.