War in Ukraine

[tvolsfan]

NATO is more fragile now in part because of the Biden Administration leaked documents than it's ever been. Add to it the possible sabotage of the NS2 pipeline. Why release the sanctions on it in the first place?

Lol

NATO just got bigger. It’s going to get even bigger soon. It’s stronger than it has been in a very long time.

 

[hog88]

I've always felt if we are going to lead the free world we're going to have to pay whatever it costs. Having Europe and the NATO countries between us and a hostile Russia is priceless.

You realize Russia is something like 100 miles from the US with nothing but water between us don't you?

 

[LouderVol]

What I do you consider broke?

not being able to pay for what you have, with any loan repayment being outside your means as well.

you know how credit card companies will trap people with the minimum payment that never pays off their card? Yeah thats what our government has done. they don't have a plan, or a way, to even touch any of the principal of what we owe.

Them just creating trillions of dollars out of mid air seems to suggest we are pretty broke.

 

[Hunerwadel]

You realize Russia is something like 100 miles from the US with nothing but water between us don't you?

Really?

 

[evillawyer]

You realize Russia is something like 100 miles from the US with nothing but water between us don't you?

If you count Mar-a-Lago, it's even closer to the US.

 

[VolStrom]

Really?

Whose side are you on?

 

[85SugarVol]

@85SugarVol

I think this current conflict is closer to WW1 than WW2 for several reasons.

1. Both conflicts were from a fading super power trying to maintain power over a nation that used to be under their direct control. Asutria Hungary vs Serbia.
2. both started over a relative change in power. Yeah WW1 was the assassination's of the heir, not the leader. But Russia is ticked that their paid for stooge leader of Ukraine got evicted, you are seeing a similar change at the top of the countries that displeases the old power.
3. Plenty of overlap in ethnic Austrian/Hungarians and Serbs, Russians/Ukrainians, between the lands, so the specific borders are in question.
4. both have fought each other over the territory in the past, so its not an unheard of conflict between two peaceful neighbors.
5. the serbs couldn't stand up to AH on their own and relied many of the same western powers to stay in the fight. Ukraine isn't part of NATO, but clearly is relying on NATO to stay afloat.
6. if the old super power loses they are very clearly looking at massive internal issues, and could easily lose more land. Putin has had open critics for the first time in a while from multiple sides. Pro Peace, vs Pro Escalated war. With Russia it may not lose land, but their influence over the old Soviet states is in deep question. You have already seen Kazakhstan seize the Russian space programs assets, and Russia had to duck out of their defensive alliance with Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked. This could be similar to effect to AH and Germany getting carved up. which would lead to future wars.
7. a peace treaty with pushes the disunification, or exchange of land from the losing super power, could very clearly be cause for a future war.
8. plenty of nationalists on both sides of both wars.
9. trench warfare
10. a lot of new technology being introduced that is leading to wide spread losses on both sides with no real answer, drones in this case.
11. worldwide epidemic (Spanish Flu vs Covid), Spanish Flu was during WW1, depending on your timeline for this current Ukrainian conflicts, its been going on since 2014, so Covid hit during that.
12. a lot of subterfuge and behind the line attacks. Sometimes attributed to various parties, both involved and not. There were a ton of bombings in the Allasace Loraine region of then Germany before WWI. And you saw Germany unleash the communists on the Russians. you have the Russians attacking shipping in the Black Sea, the Nord Stream attack, Ukraine's missile killing two Poles in Poland, the Russians downing our drone.
13. Entangling alliances. The west is in danger of getting drug into multiple conflicts at the same time despite not being directly involved in the initial fighting.

those were the positive relations (actually relating this conflict to WW1), here are some negative correlations between this conflict and WW2, which also pushes it to WW1 imo.
1. No immediately previous conflict lead directly to this one, nor had destroyed the will to fight, or wiped out a generation.
2. No internal violence lead to the internal leadership of the current powers. Putin has been in power for a long time, Hitler took over quickly. The french before WW2 faced massive internal problems. The italians had their own civil warish time for WW2. Ukraine saw a change in government, but it was largely peaceful.
3. all of the countries involved are relatively intact compared to what the nations were facing in WW2.
4. this fight is a lot less ideologically-centric than WW2. Democracy vs Nazis vs Communists. this fight is about who is in charge in Ukraine, not how they rule or what ideology rules. yeah there is some east vs west cultural things going on, but its not directly government related like WW2.
5. at least currently those involved are mostly European countries with supporting a side. Like WW1. If China fully entered as a force that would negate this point. But WW1 was 95% a European conflict that took place in a limited scale across the world, some running sea battles, some good resistance in Eastern German Africa, and the Pacific was quickly lost to Germany. I would think even with China entering it stays more limited than WW2, as it would be swapping Asia and Africa.

Really good write up. I think you’re spot on with #3 thru #6 - the similarities jump off the page. The Spanish Flu vs Covid is a good point I have not seen made.

Let’s hope China does not wade in and ratchet this thing up to something more along the lines of WW2.

One of our guys once said something about entanglements…

 

[hog88]

Whose side are you on?

He's a Biden Boi. If any R was in the WH he'd be saying screw Ukraine.

 

[Orangeburst]

Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show

 

[evillawyer]

Hey @Rasputin_Vol, I really miss your pontifications about Russian Christian values. Can you please start preaching those to us again?

 

[Hunerwadel]

He's a Biden Boi. If any R was in the WH he'd be saying screw Ukraine.

I wouldn't be saying that. I did vote for Biden though and will do it again if there is a rematch.

 

[volgr]

After the intel leak, did you guys discuss how I and a couple others like Ras, were right along?

Remember when you idiots scoffed at my Ukraine/Russia kill ratio?

Another victory lap...

 

[VolStrom]

I wouldn't be saying that. I did vote for Biden though and will do it again if there is a rematch.

How are your investments doing since slow Joe put his finger on the economy?

 

[NorthDallas40]

After the intel leak, did you guys discuss how I and a couple others like Ras, were right along?

Remember when you idiots scoffed at my Ukraine/Russia kill ratio?

Another victory lap...

You mean the casualty list they showed had been modified to exaggerate the AFU losses while downplaying the Russian losses? That list Larry? But I can understand how you’d claim a victory lap on that you’re pretty damn desperate for a win

 

[Hunerwadel]

How are your investments doing since slow Joe put his finger on the economy?

We've taken some hits. It's all Joe's fault.

 

[Hunerwadel]

not being able to pay for what you have, with any loan repayment being outside your means as well.

you know how credit card companies will trap people with the minimum payment that never pays off their card? Yeah thats what our government has done. they don't have a plan, or a way, to even touch any of the principal of what we owe.

Them just creating trillions of dollars out of mid air seems to suggest we are pretty broke.

I guess we need to cut spending and raise revenue.

 

[BreatheUT]

How are your investments doing since slow Joe put his finger on the economy?

Plus I doubt he has skin in the game if this thing escalates. No personal sacrifice and no close family. Just others putting up the defense and sacrifice for him. If I'm wrong then he can explain it.

 

[Septic]

If you count Mar-a-Lago, it's even closer to the US.

LOL

 

[Septic]

After the intel leak, did you guys discuss how I and a couple others like Ras, were right along?

Remember when you idiots scoffed at my Ukraine/Russia kill ratio?

Another victory lap...

Good job little buddy.

 

[AM64]

This is demoralizing. Once reports get out of rigged housing it’s no small feat. Now every house a Russian goes in, in the back of their minds is will this blow up. Very good snipers, anti tank missles, and other tactics slowly make Russia slower.

Those grenade dropping drones may not kill mass numbers, but they and similar devices spook the Russian invaders. The invaders will eventually get to the point of being ineffective/demoralized because of the lingering doubt and constantly looking up in the sky or over their shoulders - no safe space. We need to be learning from all this and developing effective countermeasures. It's the aerial version of IEDs only more mobile and less easily defended - just maybe not as many victims at a time.

 

[Volsdeep4]

Those grenade dropping drones may not kill mass numbers, but they and similar devices spook the Russian invaders. The invaders will eventually get to the point of being ineffective/demoralized because of the lingering doubt and constantly looking up in the sky or over their shoulders - no safe space. We need to be learning from all this and developing effective countermeasures. It's the aerial version of IEDs only more mobile and less easily defended - just maybe not as many victims at a time.

Ahh yeah another great point. Modern war just takes a toll as well. Never know when something will drop out of the sky or a bullet will fly a mile long and take out your buddy next to you. It’s like getting in a Bradley in Afghanistan and never knowing.

 

[volfanhill]

After the intel leak, did you guys discuss how I and a couple others like Ras, were right along?

Remember when you idiots scoffed at my Ukraine/Russia kill ratio?

Another victory lap...

You talking about this?

The FSB's reported calculation of almost 110,000 casualties by February is still far lower than numbers this week in previously leaked US documents, which estimated Russian losses at between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties, with 35,500-43,000 men killed in action.

 

[AM64]

I've always felt if we are going to lead the free world we're going to have to pay whatever it costs. Having Europe and the NATO countries between us and a hostile Russia is priceless.

It really comes down to landmass, population, and the ability to more or less safely project power. That means the US, Russia, and China for now are the superpowers. China is replacing Russia as the stronger opponent to what we used to consider the western world. I agree with you that like it or not we have a different burden and obligation/opportunity than our allies. I also absolutely believe that while we do more, we should be demanding that our allies do more since they are generally the ones directly in the line of fire. It's really annoying to hear our libs talk about Europe's "developed" social programs (socialism) that they can afford because we pay massive parts of their defense bill; it's also not a good thing to be dragged into a world war because the idiots were unprepared to counter a local European bully.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of thing - especially since new weapons have made the world so much smaller and we'll be dragged into a major conflict in any case. Just as there are no winners in nuclear war, there would also be no surviving isolationists.

 

[clarksvol00]

What happened to donjo?!

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It really comes down to landmass, population, and the ability to more or less safely project power. That means the US, Russia, and China for now are the superpowers. China is replacing Russia as the stronger opponent to what we used to consider the western world. I agree with you that like it or not we have a different burden and obligation/opportunity than our allies. I also absolutely believe that while we do more, we should be demanding that our allies do more since they are generally the ones directly in the line of fire. It's really annoying to hear our libs talk about Europe's "developed" social programs (socialism) that they can afford because we pay massive parts of their defense bill; it's also not a good thing to be dragged into a world war because the idiots were unprepared to counter a local European bully.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of thing - especially since new weapons have made the world so much smaller and we'll be dragged into a major conflict in any case. Just as there are no winners in nuclear war, there would also be no surviving isolationists.

You've answered your own question. The Euros need to take care of Europe. It's not a damned if you do/damned if you don't dilemma. It is pretty straight forward.