what evidence on the ground? Russia hasn't even taken Bakhmut in 9 months. that evidence on the ground says things aren't going so well for Russia.
Why would Russia take Bakhmut quickly? It was heavily defended which means if Russia tried to take it too quickly they would have lost an extraordinary amount of men. Instead they took it slowly and methodically. Creating basically a turkey shoot scenario for poor Ukrainians. Due to this, they were happy to allow Zelensky to keep throwing more men into their meat grinder. Ukraine losses in Bakhmut alone have been very high compared with Russia. I don't know where you are getting your info....actually, I do, from western propaganda outlets. Good luck. This is why you are always wrong.
and what air dominance? You barely hear about Russia flying any air missions. they are relying on drones and missiles. And supposedly Ukraine just launched a drone attack at the Kremlin, so how is that for air dominance?
As the intel leaks pointed out, Ukraine's air defense is just about gone. Not that it was all that effective anyway as it was a hodgepodge of equipment, but as Russian missiles have shown over the last few months, when they want to strike a target, they can and do. However, as was shown the other day in Russia's latest missile blitz, it is becoming much easier. They hit 9 barracks and 2 huge arm depots. This isn't even arguable at this point.
and yes Russia is outshelling Ukraine. They having to take the mass fire approach to get any type of effect. Meanwhile Ukraine is using western tactics to call in specific strikes that are far more accurate with the help of drones. so they don't need to fire as many shots to have an effect.
Cope. Once again confession through projection. What little Ukraine can muster to fire is done in a haphazard approach. From time to time they will receive good western intel and hit something of value but it is rare. Even the recent oil depot strike wasn't important to Russia militarily.
what happened to Ukraine being NATO armed and trained?
Yeah, they were. Most of them are now dead or injured. This is another reason, going back to Bakhmut, that Ukraine is seeing rising kill ratios in Bakhmut closer to 10:1 or more. These folks picked up off the street against their will, are being given 4 weeks of training at best (mostly outside of Ukraine) and shipped back in to the frontlines with limited equipment and no experience. It's effing grotesque the US allows this to continue, but this is what the US has become, a death cult.
and you are completely ignoring the actual attacks and strategy the Russians are using. Mass attacks that are often driven back with nothing accomplished. Thats where most of the losses are going to come from, the actual fighting. And as even you have admitted that type of warfare favors the defender, remember you arguing Russian "should" have 3:1 to successfully attack an urban area? and then Russia had to call up 500k before they could launch a coordinated assault to finally, almost, take the town?
My claim was from early in the war, when Ukraine did have a well trained and equipped military. That is no longer applicable. They are being demilitarized very quickly. Even with those well trained men, Russia was taking cities like Mauripol with roughly even numbers. Tell me again how badly Russian troops have performed. As I have said, I don't know if the US could have taken Mauripol or Bakhmut much better than Russia. They have made plenty of mistakes, mostly from bad assumptions at the start of the war, but overall their performance has been impressive.