War in Ukraine

[tvolsfan]

I understand the concerns of postponing elections, but postponing them in times of a national crisis is hardly an Ukraine or dictator specific thing.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

I would have to read up on Ukraine's constitution but I would imagine there are some similarities with other countries. Allowing interfacing between the military and civilian infrastructure, ensuring military access/use of materials & assets, allows them to evacuate civilians, or set curfews if they know a military action is going to take place at a certain time. I would imagine without martial law their civilian response to any missile attacks, which are still hitting the whole country, are much more restricted; and is any military commander really going to allow the assumption that the Russian's won't open a new front somewhere else jeopardize his defense of the whole country?

2800 hundred miles of Ukraine's 4400 (63%) mile long border is shared with Russian controlled territory, Russia, Belarus, and Transnistria, and thats without taking into account the changes at the front with Crimea going from a zero to a couple hundred miles. Then you have whatever stretch of coastline Russia has access to with the Black Sea. and Russia has deployed far reaching attacks with paratroopers or armored columns in this war, no military commander is going to assume that Russia won't deploy that same strategy in the future at some point. Point being is that Ukraine is having to defend way more than 25%. They have lost 25% and probably actively having defensive troops in at least another 1/3 where I would argue martial law is justified. thats almost 60% of the country.

so again what's your quorum for a vote? 42% sans martial law is enough to call it a valid election?

I don't see any way a military leader, or even national leader, is going to make the assumptions you think they should about this war, in regards to picking and choosing martial law, if they are responsible for the actual lives in the country.

I would look at some type of compromise, but it doesn't seem like their Constitution has provisions for it, and making that compromise would seem to be a unilateral expansion of his powers for Zelensky to make. I would say something like you hold elections where you can, as scheduled, for however long the war goes on. But once the war is over you have a full election in the whole country, even if it upsets the rhythm of the terms.

Sadly, because Ukraine wasn't a shining beacon of freedom before the war and the war has made the military more of a force, I'm not certain truly free elections could be held nor enforced in Ukraine.

Zelensky is, currently, a popular despot or was before the war. More importantly than anything, he's essentially OUR popular despot which makes him better than say Lukashenko next door. Does it make him good? No...... but better than the alternative of having a Putin puppet in yet another Baltic state.

I don't think the world could enforce a fair election in Ukraine currently. Countries at war for their existence tend to be at the mercy of those controlling the guns to defend the country. Ukraine is no different.

 

[MontyPython]

For 75% of the country things are fairly normal. Zelinski has time to fly around the world begging for money so he has time to think about the rights of his citizens.

The lines were stable for over 6 months, so it wasn't fluid like you think.

The most ignorant statement on this thread I've read this month.

Absurd statement aside, some 10-15 MILLION Ukrainians have fled to other countries. Out of an original 44 million population, that's a HUGE percentage of the populus that's currently elsewhere.

Don't they deserve the right to vote in free and fair elections? And how would you propose they exactly do that, Gramps?

 

[hog88]

lol

What is his motivation? Power is a drug and right now he has almost unfettered authority for as long as the war continues. He has support of the entire western world and aid pouring in, what's he in a hurry for if he can't be removed from office?

 

[hog88]

It's about money for you? You think it really IS just a European problem? Do you think the issues in Asia are just a Taiwan or Japan problem?

You think the world is that unconnected? Interesting idea, but what's happening in Africa, Europe, Asia, etc has a direct affect on our economy. I like isolationism as much as possible too but we can't live like the world economy is in the 1800s.

Stop the chicken little routine. Western Europe has the means to lend all the support Ukraine requires, if the conflict spilled outside of Ukraine into a NATO country then yes it would then be our problem also.

 

[hog88]

IMO a flawed or unfair election may be worse than postponing one. We have seen what can happen when the loser throws a fit.

Yeah, a peaceful transfer of power even though people are pissed off.

 

[hog88]

The most ignorant statement on this thread I've read this month.

Absurd statement aside, some 10-15 MILLION Ukrainians have fled to other countries. Out of an original 44 million population, that's a HUGE percentage of the populus that's currently elsewhere.

Don't they deserve the right to vote in free and fair elections? And how would you propose they exactly do that, Gramps?

Is Ukraine incapable of having absentee ballots? Are mail in ballots not secure enough for Ukraine?

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

The most ignorant statement on this thread I've read this month.

Absurd statement aside, some 10-15 MILLION Ukrainians have fled to other countries. Out of an original 44 million population, that's a HUGE percentage of the populus that's currently elsewhere.

Don't they deserve the right to vote in free and fair elections? And how would you propose they exactly do that, Gramps?

I'd not considered that. I know folks involved in churches there that have fled. I believe them to be in Lebanon, currently, because they are Ukrainian nationals who became evangelists and volunteered after being uprooted.

There are others that I'm sure are in other countries nearby and elsewhere. I'm sure the response will again be, "Just have an election whether it's legit or not."

The hallmark of a "false flag" argument. It's not the election they want but they just want to discredit Zelensky. Oddly, left to his own devices I'm pretty certain Zelensky will do plenty to discredit himself after this all ends.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Stop the chicken little routine. Western Europe has the means to lend all the support Ukraine requires, if the conflict spilled outside of Ukraine into a NATO country then yes it would then be our problem also.

Hehehehe, not a fan of history are you?

So wait until the fire is fully involved before fighting it. Nice strategy.

 

[hog88]

Hehehehe, not a fan of history are you?

So wait until the fire is fully involved before fighting it. Nice strategy.

Not what I said at all.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Is Ukraine incapable of having absentee ballots? Are mail in ballots not secure enough for Ukraine?

Seriously? I'm sure in the middle of a war the Ukraine knows where all the refugees are. And SURELY they can vet absentee ballots in the middle of a war anyway. WTF?

You want them to expend resources to locate and give ballots to refugees? Maybe those resources are better allocated in a war...... just maybe.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Not what I said at all.

You said Western Europe can supply Ukraine with all they need to fight against Russia. History says otherwise. Repeatedly.

You said we'd need to get involved if they attacked a NATO ally. I'll bet dimes to donuts you want us out of NATO anyway but aside from that, by the time they reach a NATO country the European consensus will probably be: I'm not so sure America cares what happens to us.

Essentially, you ARE saying let them learn Russian.

 

[hog88]

You said Western Europe can supply Ukraine with all they need to fight against Russia. History says otherwise. Repeatedly.

You said we'd need to get involved if they attacked a NATO ally. I'll bet dimes to donuts you want us out of NATO anyway but aside from that, by the time they reach a NATO country the European consensus will probably be: I'm not so sure America cares what happens to us.

Essentially, you ARE saying let them learn Russian.

Keep playing chicken little.

When has Russia/USSR ever invaded western Europe? Where in history can I find evidence that western Europe cannot stand against Russia?

 

[CobbVol]

The US and Lincoln had elections during the Civil War. It validates direction and leadership.

 

[LouderVol]

In case anyone has information.

doesn't seem like there has been any big push anywhere. Whether that was the plan all along, or they got bloodied up too much with their limited attacks, or something else changed on the ground that caused them to reevaluate, idk.

There have been small gains, usually just grabbing a town/village and sitting on it, with no big push into the real teeth of the Russian defenses.

FWIW there is a strategic value to this, and historical precedence for this strategy; assuming they chose that route and weren't forced into it. In WW1 the new German Siegfried line was a new defense in depth strategy that reaped HUGE tallies from the allies for much fewer German casualties than previously. It was because the French and the British were looking for big break throughs, but because of all the layers of Defense they couldn't get them. Death by a thousand cuts in defense. The typical ally attack would wear itself out taking each layer of comparatively light defense, so the Germans could counterattack and retake with the losses being relatively cheap. The only nation that really had success was the Canadians, they tore up the defense in depth of the Siegfried lines, by taking little bites. all over, wherever they could cheaply. And they did it with small losses compared to the big french and british offensives.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Keep playing chicken little.

When has Russia/USSR ever invaded western Europe? Where in history can I find evidence that western Europe cannot stand against Russia?

Any time Europe has invaded Russia or attempted to stand up against Russia, they've failed. Things like the Berlin Blockade and airlift weren't led by Europeans, despite it being on their doorstep. ALL of the saber rattling in Europe since WWII has been between America and Russia. Europe's military was and is inconsequential since we, again, neutered Germany.

They're useless militarily.

 

[LouderVol]

Sadly, because Ukraine wasn't a shining beacon of freedom before the war and the war has made the military more of a force, I'm not certain truly free elections could be held nor enforced in Ukraine.

Zelensky is, currently, a popular despot or was before the war. More importantly than anything, he's essentially OUR popular despot which makes him better than say Lukashenko next door. Does it make him good? No...... but better than the alternative of having a Putin puppet in yet another Baltic state.

I don't think the world could enforce a fair election in Ukraine currently. Countries at war for their existence tend to be at the mercy of those controlling the guns to defend the country. Ukraine is no different.

personally its never been about Zelensky or Ukraine being better in any form or fashion except the circumstances. and him being in our pocket doesn't make him any better.

The ONLY distinguishing feature was that Russia staged a rebellion in Ukraine, and then invaded. that makes Russia the "worse" guy in this case, doesn't make Ukraine any better, just makes Russia worse.

 

[AM64]

You might reconsider your belief about the direction of this war. Russia hasn't had the upper hand since the very early days of the invasion. Once the attack on Kiev was repelled and the invasion from the west stalled Russia has mostly been on the defensive. They control less territory than they did a year ago. They cannot occupy or control the territory they illegally annexed in September. It took them over six months and a hired army to take the minor city of Bakhmut and they have since basically lost it. Russia has a severe supply problem. They cannot replace their weapons and ammunition fast as they are using it while supplies from then West to Ukraine have continued unabated. Another problem Russia has is they are basically an army of conscripts who are untrained, unwilling and undersupplied. The reports they they are often being forced it to battle at gunpoint are so numerous and from so many sources that they are hard to dismiss. There are a couple of guys here who constantly post propaganda from Russian state owned media that will contradict this but if you read any of it just consider the source.

It it fair to ask why I believe this. I can only say that the reports coming out of the free Nations from around the world pretty much agree that this war is not going well for Russia. In fact if these reports can be believed it has been a complete disaster for Russia.

Those millions of Russians living in Ukraine are like the millions of Mexicans living in the Southwest US who are now US citizens. They have two choices they can be Americans of go back to Mexico. But they sure as hell don't get to move the border.

If not for the minefields, it looks like Ukraine is in a position to roll up the Russians. Not that it would be an easy walk in the woods by any means, but the minefields are a serious problem. Doesn't seem that tanks and APCs are going to do Ukraine much good until they have something to destroy minefields without rolling through them. Maybe something like a "MOAB" type bomb to overpressure the field and cause the mines to detonate maybe. There's a big need for an industrial strength minefield zapper.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

personally its never been about Zelensky or Ukraine being better in any form or fashion except the circumstances. and him being in our pocket doesn't make him any better.

The ONLY distinguishing feature was that Russia staged a rebellion in Ukraine, and then invaded. that makes Russia the "worse" guy in this case, doesn't make Ukraine any better, just makes Russia worse.

I have never said otherwise. I've repeatedly said Zelensky is not "good" but the bigger picture is Putin is AGAIN trying to "get the band back together" in the Baltic states and that's not in America's long-term interest.

I've never held up Zelensky as a saint. He's our despot like we've allowed and funded despots around the world for years. We need his dirty tail to win this...... not because we like him....... because the other side sucks more.

Need I remind that we have provided weapons to Saddam vs Iran after the Shah (speaking of despots) fell.

Keeping America great is a long game not speed chess.

 

[AM64]

There was a pause for a while when Russia seemed less dangerous but I've always considered them our #1 enemy.

Right about now, I'm thinking China is overtaking Russia as Public Enemy #1, but it's still too close to call. I don't get the impression that China would start out with nukes, and Russia might. As far as conventional forces go, the numbers go to China, but that's highly dependent on where you fight. That old thing about not getting involved in an Asian war applies to both Russia and China, but China looks to be the bigger problem if it came down to that. It's like the real game is to deny either the gains they want and never to fight them directly, and that's what is happening with Ukraine and potentially with Taiwan. Better both bottled up, conventionally neutered, and hope nukes never come into play. Because of our age, we probably see this differently than younger generations ... we've both seen virtually the entire Cold War. It still comes down to us (and allies), Russia, and China as a three sided power struggle; all peace takes is for Russia and China to become good neighbors.

 

[tvolsfan]

What is his motivation? Power is a drug and right now he has almost unfettered authority for as long as the war continues. He has support of the entire western world and aid pouring in, what's he in a hurry for if he can't be removed from office?

If Ukraine wins, Zelenskyy is unquestionably going down as Ukraine’s greatest ever hero. I’d guess he would prefer that to whatever glamorous life you think he’s currently living.

 

[tvolsfan]

I'd not considered that. I know folks involved in churches there that have fled. I believe them to be in Lebanon, currently, because they are Ukrainian nationals who became evangelists and volunteered after being uprooted.

There are others that I'm sure are in other countries nearby and elsewhere. I'm sure the response will again be, "Just have an election whether it's legit or not."

The hallmark of a "false flag" argument. It's not the election they want but they just want to discredit Zelensky. Oddly, left to his own devices I'm pretty certain Zelensky will do plenty to discredit himself after this all ends.

Honestly, if Ukraine wins, Zelensky’s best political move would probably be resigning the next day.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Honestly, if Ukraine wins, Zelensky’s best political move would probably be resigning the next day.

Yeah, but that would require the suspension of ego and the worst of human nature. To rise to where he's risen, he's probably got a giant ego which is getting bigger with the attention and he's likely a rather ruthless politician.

I don't get the focus on him personally. Like I mentioned before, these kinds of populist leaders like Walesa in Poland, pop up now and then but they don't REALLY matter much in the big scheme of things. What good the big powers can squeeze out of them fades reasonably quickly and only "next level" positioning by big powers remains and matters.

Zelensky isn't a good guy by any means but he's a tiny blip on the bigger map.

 

[hog88]

If Ukraine wins, Zelenskyy is unquestionably going down as Ukraine’s greatest ever hero. I’d guess he would prefer that to whatever glamorous life you think he’s currently living.

That depends on what is defined as a win and what he does afterwards. If he drives the Russians out completely and restores civil liberties shortly after then yeah, he may very well be regarded as the greatest hero ever. I suspect that is not how this will play out though.

 

[AM64]

Okay, have hostilities been declared over in Ukraine?

Hardly. It's very fluid as the Wagner madness suggests and calling for elections is pretty useless, really, as Zelensky has all the cards..... he's keeping Ukraine in a war that many thought was lost when Russia first approached Kyiv.

Again, do I think Zelensky is a "good guy?" Not at all. But he's in the pocket of someone other than Putin. Russian expansion cannot be tolerated. It's not in the interest of the free world to let them get stronger. Just as with China, we don't want them to get the idea we'll just roll over and let them do as they please because it's not on our doorstep.

The arguments for and against elections both have a lot of important points. However, Ukraine elected a Russian stooge just prior to Zelensky, and making the same mistake during a war with Russia would be fatal. One argument says stay with a strong leader defending the country because you know what you have. You never know when things are in turmoil that an opponent is really who you think he is and that there's not an element of Russian propaganda at work. The other is that someone else might be a better choice, and people deserve the opportunity to make the choice. Personally, I'd vote for keeping Zelensky in place for a while (supposed warts and all) unless somebody can demonstrate a real reason to do otherwise - like proving there is corruption, and especially that the corruption is harming Ukraine's opportunity to win, and I haven't seen any evidence of that.