War in Ukraine

What are the odds we're not flying drones over Ukraine and dropping care packages on Russian convoys?

Who'd know?
It's a given we're relaying intelligence from satellites and other sources but I hadn't considered that. I hope we are. Of course there's a few here who would be whining about us murdering innocent Russians.
 
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Do we have any examples of sanctions achieving such an outcome? My understanding is that they generally result in uniting the opposition with the sanctioned regime against the external forces imposing the sanctions.

Usually not - reality is in the past heavy sanctions like on Iran or Egypt were combined with CIA astroturfing to foment/encourage "Arab spring" revolutions or the like or "fiddling" with democracy and the like in places like Chile. That was all fine and good I suppose in the past but its an odd thing that ever since the massive failure of the "weapons of mass destruction" I cant say I actually trust our clandestine services to be doing their dirty tricks for the ultimate good of the USofA.

One of the casualties of the generation of me, Me, ME! that we see now and the concomitant breaking down of patriotism and believing in America as a great nation and the premier force for good in this world - people are less dedicated to what once may have been called "duty" and now more motivated by personal and partisan drivers. The lack of religious and cultural cohesion comes at a cost. Diversity is great for creativity but cohesiveness is essential to production.
 
I'm unaware of any country in the course of human history being sanctioned like the EU and NATO are giving Russia right now. It's unprecedented and despite what Comrade Carlson is saying on Fox, these sanctions will cripple Russia. Not just financially, but these people won't be able to fly through EU airspace. Hope they like vacationing in Siberia and China.

Now does that mean that it will suddenly make Putin change his mind? maybe - maybe not. Probably not. He may not care that the plebes suffer the brunt, but it isn't nothing. Guarantee Xi is paying attention to the sanctions.

Do I understand correctly, then, that you're unaware of any instance in which sanctions have had the effect of so alienating the people of the sanctioned nation against their rulers that they overthrew them, but that you believe that the unprecedented magnitude of the current sanctions imposed on Russia may reasonably be hoped to achieve such an outcome?
 
It's a given we're relaying intelligence from satellites and other sources but I hadn't considered that. I hope we are. Of course there's a few here who would be whining about us murdering innocent Russians.
Less to do with murdering Russians and more to do with our country’s penchant for unauthorized military scope creep.
 
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Gingrich Predicts ‘End of the Post-World War II System’ — ‘We’re Going to See a Much More Violent World’

During an interview that aired Sunday on New York WABC 770 AM radio’s “The Cats Roundtable,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted that Russia ramping up aggression toward Ukraine means “the end of the post-World War II system.”

Gingrich told host John Catsimatidis that “we’re going to see a much more violent world” and warned China would try to seize Taiwan after seeing how weak the West is.

“[Vladimir Putin] is a little bit like a gambler who he’s going to push see what the reaction is,” Gingrich advised. “If the West is as weak as it seems right now, he will push again, probably against the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — maybe against Poland. He really wants to destroy NATO and drive the U.S. out of Europe. And he sees that as his job.”

“In the case of the Germans, China is their biggest export market now,” he continued. “I mean, they sell more BMWs and Mercedes and Volkswagons in China, and Russia is the source of their inexpensive energy. So, the two great dictatorships both have huge pieces of the German economy. And the Germans are not going to risk that over something … like Ukrainian independence, which the Germans don’t care about. The … great danger right now is that Xi Jinping in China is going to watch how weak the West is and decide the point has come to seize Taiwan; that while we’re busy worrying about Ukraine, that that’s the right moment for China to take back what it considers its 19th province. All of this means the end of the post-World War II system, which had successfully maintained the peace worldwide for some 77 years. And I think now that we’re going to see a much more violent world and a lot greater dangers, and we’re going to see the dictatorships being much more aggressive.”

Gingrich Predicts 'End of the Post-World War II System' -- 'We’re Going to See a Much More Violent World'
 
Do I understand correctly, then, that you're unaware of any instance in which sanctions have had the effect of so alienating the people of the sanctioned nation against their rulers that they overthrew them, but that you believe that the unprecedented magnitude of the current sanctions imposed on Russia may reasonably be hoped to achieve such an outcome?

yes, I am unaware and no I don't believe it will cause the people of Russia to rise up. I hope it does, but do not think it will. Nonetheless, if your position is that we do not punish bad behavior for fear that it might galvanize the people against the west - I say it's a risk we have to take. It's sanctions, war or nothing - do you have a viable alternative?
 
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Gingrich Predicts ‘End of the Post-World War II System’ — ‘We’re Going to See a Much More Violent World’

During an interview that aired Sunday on New York WABC 770 AM radio’s “The Cats Roundtable,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted that Russia ramping up aggression toward Ukraine means “the end of the post-World War II system.”

Gingrich told host John Catsimatidis that “we’re going to see a much more violent world” and warned China would try to seize Taiwan after seeing how weak the West is.

“[Vladimir Putin] is a little bit like a gambler who he’s going to push see what the reaction is,” Gingrich advised. “If the West is as weak as it seems right now, he will push again, probably against the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — maybe against Poland. He really wants to destroy NATO and drive the U.S. out of Europe. And he sees that as his job.”

“In the case of the Germans, China is their biggest export market now,” he continued. “I mean, they sell more BMWs and Mercedes and Volkswagons in China, and Russia is the source of their inexpensive energy. So, the two great dictatorships both have huge pieces of the German economy. And the Germans are not going to risk that over something … like Ukrainian independence, which the Germans don’t care about. The … great danger right now is that Xi Jinping in China is going to watch how weak the West is and decide the point has come to seize Taiwan; that while we’re busy worrying about Ukraine, that that’s the right moment for China to take back what it considers its 19th province. All of this means the end of the post-World War II system, which had successfully maintained the peace worldwide for some 77 years. And I think now that we’re going to see a much more violent world and a lot greater dangers, and we’re going to see the dictatorships being much more aggressive.”

Gingrich Predicts 'End of the Post-World War II System' -- 'We’re Going to See a Much More Violent World'

Putin has to beat Ukraine first.
 
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Gotta start having serious policy debates to get serious candidates.

Can't. The country is addicted to reality TV. Sanity and reason don't apply these days. Or another way of looking at it. For years we had college football and some very good bowl games at the end of the season; that wasn't good enough so now we trashed good times in favor of hype to declare a mythical national champion. We've forgotten that in so many cases it's the journey and not the destination that's important.
 

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