War in Ukraine

#1,251
#1,251
85SugarVol said:
Russia announces deployment of over 140 warships, some to Black Sea, after Biden warning

Probably just normal training maneuvers
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All of this tough talk from the Biden administration is falling on deaf ears. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you keep running your mouth then you appear more scared than serious. Anyone that has been in fights know this. It's the ole "you keep on and I'm going to do something about it........just keep on." Putin ain't running his mouth.
 
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#1,253
#1,253
BreatheUT said:
All of this tough talk from the Biden administration is falling on deaf ears. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you keep running your mouth then you appear more scared than serious. Anyone that has been in fights know this. It's the ole "you keep on and I'm going to do something about it........just keep on." Putin ain't running his mouth.
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He's not running his mouth but he has been sabre rattling.

At this point does anyone see him not invading Ukraine? You don't form an army on the border of another country, make demands that aren't met, and then back down. Great way to appear weak.
 
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#1,254
TheDeeble said:
He's not running his mouth but he has been sabre rattling.

At this point does anyone see him not invading Ukraine? You don't form an army on the border of another country, make demands that aren't met, and then back down. Great way to appear weak.
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He kind of did it in 2014.
 
#1,255
#1,255
TheDeeble said:
He's not running his mouth but he has been sabre rattling.

At this point does anyone see him not invading Ukraine? You don't form an army on the border of another country, make demands that aren't met, and then back down. Great way to appear weak.
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The west will either cave or he’s going to invade.
 
#1,256
#1,256
hog88 said:
The west will either cave or he’s going to invade.
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I don't know what concession(s) he could realistically get from NATO. He asking for legal guarantees, in writing, that Ukraine won't join NATO and he also wants NATO troops out of Poland and other places. NATO is never going to agree to that.

At this point, the only way he doesn't invade is if he gets some kind of marginal concession, but I'm not sure what that would be. There's just no way he is going to build forces up to this level, over this period of time, make very specific demands, then just leave when he doesn't get it. Such a move would make him look super weak and give more legitimacy to the Navalnys of the world.
Velo Vol said:
He kind of did it in 2014.
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He didn't make these kinds of demands in 2014 or in 2018.
 
#1,257
#1,257
BreatheUT said:
All of this tough talk from the Biden administration is falling on deaf ears. It's the law of diminishing returns. If you keep running your mouth then you appear more scared than serious. Anyone that has been in fights know this. It's the ole "you keep on and I'm going to do something about it........just keep on." Putin ain't running his mouth.
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Sure he is.
 
#1,258
#1,258
05_never_again said:
I don't know what concession(s) he could realistically get from NATO. He asking for legal guarantees, in writing, that Ukraine won't join NATO and he also wants NATO troops out of Poland and other places. NATO is never going to agree to that.

At this point, the only way he doesn't invade is if he gets some kind of marginal concession, but I'm not sure what that would be. There's just no way he is going to build forces up to this level, over this period of time, make very specific demands, then just leave when he doesn't get it. Such a move would make him look super weak and give more legitimacy to the Navalnys of the world.

He didn't make these kinds of demands in 2014 or in 2018.
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Maybe NATO agrees to limit the number of troops east of whatever line, except during war. Some guarenteed access to the Black Sea.
 
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Velo Vol said:
There was an active war going on, he had troops at the border, but only helped through the back door.
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He still did something though. In 2014 he massed troops and sent in the little green men; in 2018 he massed troops but didn't make any public demands, there were so summits with NATO representatives, etc., so pulling those troops back didn't come with any kind of embarrassment.

I don't see how he masses troops, makes demands, doesn't get anything from NATO, then just leaves. At the very least, he has to send more little green men into the areas he already controls. Perhaps the recognition of the separation of the Donbass republics from Ukraine is a precursor to sending Russian regulars into the areas the insurgency already controls.
 
#1,263
#1,263
headhunter15 said:
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Estonia must not actually own these weapons, correct?

At issue with Estonia are exports of the D-30, a howitzer that fires a 122-mm shell around 20 kilometers. The howitzers, originally made in the Soviet Union, were stationed in former East Germany. After German reunification, Berlin exported the guns to Finland in the 1990s, which then passed them on to Estonia in 2009, Estonian, Finnish and German officials said.
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#1,264
#1,264
05_never_again said:
He still did something though. In 2014 he massed troops and sent in the little green men; in 2018 he massed troops but didn't make any public demands, there were so summits with NATO representatives, etc., so pulling those troops back didn't come with any kind of embarrassment.

I don't see how he masses troops, makes demands, doesn't get anything from NATO, then just leaves. At the very least, he has to send more little green men into the areas he already controls. Perhaps the recognition of the separation of the Donbass republics from Ukraine is a precursor to sending Russian regulars into the areas the insurgency already controls.
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In 2014 he took Crimea so yes Russia did something. They annex a part of a sovereign nation similar to Hitler taken the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia or Memel from Lithuania.
 
#1,268
#1,268
Yeah Russia better be careful with Germany. Germany nearly took them out in the 1940s while fighting the West at the same time. If Russia pisses off enough Germans, there is always that crazy, underground fringe element that could bring the Nazis or something like them back and want to wipe Russia out. This time, however, Russia wouldn't have the Western Allies on their side.

Russia cannot be stupid enough to fight France, UK, USA, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the rest of NATO all at the same time by themselves. I know that many of these European nations are not the military forces they were in the early 20th century and before but they are still not pushovers either.
 
#1,270
#1,270
05_never_again said:
Estonia must not actually own these weapons, correct?
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So no this is more ITAR/EAR rules. Each country has their own rules but generally the country of origin has approval and a say on a re-export of military hardware which originated in their country. This is likely German manufactured hardware which was sold to Estonia.

Edit: read the article yep that is what is happening.

Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion.

Unlike the U.S., Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government has declined to export lethal weapons directly to Ukraine
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#1,271
NorthDallas40 said:
So no this is more ITAR/EAR rules. Each country has their own rules but generally the country of origin has approval and a say on a re-export of military hardware which originated in their country. This is likely German manufactured hardware which was sold to Estonia.
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According to the story it sounds like they were sold to Finland and then Finland sold them to Estonia. Doesn't change the fact that they are Estonia's property now.
 
#1,272
#1,272
volbound1700 said:
According to the story it sounds like they were sold to Finland and then Finland sold them to Estonia. Doesn't change the fact that they are Estonia's property now.
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Nor does it change the fact that Germany still has approval authority on any re-export. This is standard ITAR/EAR stuff.
 
#1,273
#1,273
NorthDallas40 said:
Nor does it change the fact that Germany still has approval authority on any re-export. This is standard ITAR/EAR stuff.
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So Estonia "owns" it. If you can't transfer it as you wish, then do you really own it?

They might call it ownership under these rules you mentioned (which I am totally unfamiliar with) but in practice it would appear they don't entirely own it. This is like buying a gun from somebody, but you have to get the previous owner's permission to let a buddy of yours use it.
 
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#1,274
#1,274
05_never_again said:
So Estonia "owns" it. If you can't transfer it as you wish, then do you really own it?

They might call it ownership under these rules you mentioned (which I am totally unfamiliar with) but in practice it would appear they don't entirely own it. This is like buying a gun from somebody, but you have to get the previous owner's permission to let a buddy of yours use it.
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Yeah, this doesn't make any sense to me. Customs doesn't work that way. You cannot block someone from shipping a good unless you retain some form of ownership. Also NATO rights would be lost once it was given to Finland because Finland is a non-NATO member. Germany doesn't have a case here IMO. By giving it to a non-NATO member, Germany forfeited any of the stuff referenced here by the poster.
 
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