War in Ukraine

#18,927
#18,927
ISW:

March 19, 3 pm ET

Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war.

That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail."
 
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#18,928
#18,928
ButchPlz said:
Can't forget the dozens of photos of fine Ukrainian heroes donning their black sun symbols on their uniforms, even outside the Azov battalion.

Nazis bad, unless they're Ukrainian nazis, then they're good heroes we have to waste US money to support!

EDIT: leftists will call anyone that demonstrates any right-leaning tendency a "nazi" despite no evidence of actual nazi thought or belief, then clamor to arm and go to war on behalf of a corrupt country whose military is literally rife with actual neo-nazis.
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It's a well known fact that skinheads over at Storm front were huge Biden Harris supporters. I heard they hated Trump and we're canvassing many of the inner city neighborhoods drumming up support for B&H.
 
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#18,930
#18,930
red butler said:
Let’s say China starts pumping money into Mexico extremist groups leading to a revolution. The Chinese ambassador is taped directing who the next Mexican president is going to be before there is even a vote to remove the last one. Violence erupts when someone starts shooting from behind protesters, killing police and protesters indiscriminately. After the coup, several violent “ultra nationalists” are given high level government appointments. The children of several high level Chinese officials are given token board seats of Mexican oil companies, paying undeserved tens of millions. The VP of China brags about threatening to cut off aid to Mexico if they continue investigating corruption.

Then China and Mexico start making statements like they’re going to join a Warsaw Pact type alliance. Massive amount of military equipment start flooding into Mexico while tens of thousands American sympathizers are killed along the border. In the near future DoD sees a scenario where Chinese fleets are docked in Mexican ports threatening use of strategic seaways.

Certainly we would try diplomacy, then try regime change- but if everything failed, we’d invade. Especially if China elected an incompetent leader. There’s no way we wouldn’t invoke the Monroe Doctrine.
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You left out the part about these Mexican extremists hypothetically killing expat/retired Americans living in Mazatlan or Acapulco over several years.
 
#18,931
#18,931
red butler said:
Let’s say China starts pumping money into Mexico extremist groups leading to a revolution. The Chinese ambassador is taped directing who the next Mexican president is going to be before there is even a vote to remove the last one. Violence erupts when someone starts shooting from behind protesters, killing police and protesters indiscriminately. After the coup, several violent “ultra nationalists” are given high level government appointments. The children of several high level Chinese officials are given token board seats of Mexican oil companies, paying undeserved tens of millions. The VP of China brags about threatening to cut off aid to Mexico if they continue investigating corruption.

Then China and Mexico start making statements like they’re going to join a Warsaw Pact type alliance. Massive amount of military equipment start flooding into Mexico while tens of thousands American sympathizers are killed along the border. In the near future DoD sees a scenario where Chinese fleets are docked in Mexican ports threatening use of strategic seaways.

Certainly we would try diplomacy, then try regime change- but if everything failed, we’d invade. Especially if China elected an incompetent leader. There’s no way we wouldn’t invoke the Monroe Doctrine.
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I would hope as a nation we would realize that pretty much none of that is true and is purely propaganda meant to justify our unwarranted attack on Mexico.
 
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#18,933
#18,933
landscapingvol said:
That sounds reasonable but if those civilian numbers are true, it’s pretty high for a relatively short war. It was roughly that many by all sides in the Iraq War through the year 2019 which is roughly 16 years with many of those coming from insurgent attacks.
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Does sound high - maybe they meant up to 120k or could be just wrong. I am sure its a lot, lot more than reported though. Start shelling the hell out of cities and its easy to kill people. Western media is not covering anything that may look bad for Ukraine. And comparing to Iraq - we specifically were trying to avoid civilian deaths. Also, I suspect we didnt report some of them either.

My buddy is rooting for them - also said the US operators are pissed that they are not more directly into the fight.
 
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#18,937
#18,937
volgr said:
Slowly, some are starting to see reality...
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The reality of what? That they will occupy the towns and city's for just as long as they have a soldier posted on every corner and every block?

No one has any illusions that Ukraine can outlast through attrition. It's what comes next, Russia will win the battles but lose the war. Hell, they've already guaranteed a 1917 time travel revision.
 
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#18,938
#18,938
Septic said:
The reality of what? That they will occupy the towns and city's for just as long as they have a soldier posted on every corner and every block?

No one has any illusions that Ukraine can outlast through attrition. It's what comes next, Russia will win the battles but lose the war. Hell, they've already guaranteed a 1917 time travel revision.
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Well considering your track record, we know you are likely wrong again. Maybe some self reflection and time off would do some good.
 
#18,939
#18,939
Gandalf said:
Does sound high - maybe they meant up to 120k or could be just wrong. I am sure its a lot, lot more than reported though. Start shelling the hell out of cities and its easy to kill people. Western media is not covering anything that may look bad for Ukraine. And comparing to Iraq - we specifically were trying to avoid civilian deaths. Also, I suspect we didnt report some of them either.

My buddy is rooting for them - also said the US operators are pissed that they are not more directly into the fight.
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While I 100% agree that western media wouldn’t report the truth if it kicked them in the nuts, if Russia has murdered over a 100k civilians they would be reporting that.
 
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#18,941
#18,941
People who know what the hell they are talking about have been talking about the cauldroning of Eastern Ukraine for weeks. Good to see though that some are starting to break the bad news to those who were under a false view that Ukraine was winning or there was a stalemate. No, no, no. The East is close to falling. Once that happens, its all over but Zelensky's last stand up act.

Going to be a lot of cope from many over the next couple weeks.
 
#18,942
#18,942
volgr said:
Well considering your track record, we know you are likely wrong again. Maybe some self reflection and time off would do some good.
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I'm undefeated against you, comrade. Like I said, you're light work.

In fact, this entire forum is slicing and dicing your arguments like a Ginsu knife. Hell, I've never seen anyone been so thoroughly destroyed by both left and right leaning VN members. It's comical watching you fluff pooty.
 
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#18,944
#18,944
Septic said:
I'm undefeated against you, comrade. Like I said, you're light work.

In fact, this entire forum is slicing and dicing your arguments like a Ginsu knife. Hell, I've never seen anyone been so thoroughly destroyed by both left and right leaning VN members. It's comical watching you fluff pooty.
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We'll see. The next couple of weeks will be fun.
 
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#18,948
#18,948
hog88 said:
Example of cope?

You have made a great effort in justifying the invasion so how could that not be interpreted as rooting?
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Because Russia IS justified, by the very same metric as the US uses to justify our invasions, broad self defense. That isnt rooting for Putin, that is reality.
 
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