What I've been thinking on Jones resume
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Wylo
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Butch has already out coached Richt and Spurrier in his first year here with average talent....if he keeps or adds more top level recruits to this class and signs them all...and one more signing class like this one after that....then there should be no reason we will be back very soonk:
I think he did a good job against Spurrier but Richt is a stretch. Butch made some poor decisions in the UGA game. We stopped UGA deep in their territory on 3rd down with 1:56 to go in the first half and made them punt. Instead of calling timeout after that 3rd down and getting in FG position he let the clock run out. We would have had the ball around midfield with about 1:45 to go on the clock. Easy chance for a FG.
And he killed the first drive of the 3rd quarter after he put us in a 2nd and 25 after cussing out the officials on a play that was reviewed. He was lucky that we were in the ball game later because we went for it on 3 4th down plays. Had we had either of the two scoring opportunities that he lost at the end of regulation we would have won the game.
I will give the guy a chance but I am not sold on him. After all, the only significant win for Derek Dooley in his three years here was a blowout over Cincinnati and Butch Jones.
K-town Vol Fan
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But that IS a legitimate deficiency in talent. I am disappointed but not angry. They appear to be recruiting guys who have more talent to make those plays.
What makes me angry... is when week after week we see guys out of position and not playing assignment football. That is coaching and concerns me much more than the lack of talent where it exists.
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I saw someone post it the other day, so credit to them, but I have no clue who it was...
But a lot of the players know there is nobody behind them waiting to play. Or have competition for their position. So there is no incentive to play to a higher standard since nobody is challenging them for position.
Kinda makes sense to me in a roundabout way. I do think we have seen some bright spots on defense, just not many.
I didn't really interpret what I cited related to their competition while at Cincy. I just stated it. It really speaks for itself.
So the competition he did it against does not matter?
I believe you included FCS teams. I didn't.
Are you saying they went to bowls or were bowl eligible?
If this site is incorrect then I stand corrected. I see six wins vs FBS schools that finished with a winning record. Victories by FCS schools vs FBS schools are so rare that I hardly think it is worth of including them.... and UT rarely plays an FCS school.
Cincinnati Historical Scores
You basically accused me of skewing the facts. I do not think I did... but you seem to be against your normal tendency. That was a 7-6 L'ville team and iirc. It was Strong's first year and before Bridgewater. They were 4-8 the year before. It is nothing like a victory now would be vs L'ville.
That is the correct question. I don't think Cincy gives a clear answer and am certain that this season at UT only raises more questions.
Who do you think Jones beat at Cincy who clearly had more talent that I have not given credit for? VT and maybe NCSU are the only ones I see.
Yes. But I am not really interested in evaluating him based on Cincy. I was answering those who would use his record as "proof" of something.
I am always impressed with the analyses you do like this. I hope that you are right and when he gets talent his ability will be a "+2" in wins. But I think you have to admit that it isn't that way this year. And if your analysis could go deeper into not just w/l and predict margins... I think you would agree that the last three games are not a good sign.
I completely respect your opinion, and I understand being down about what we have seen these last few games. The taint of that funk, I believe, is tinting your view of what you are seeing. I am not accusing you of lying or publishing incorrect data. I am only suggesting that you are not looking at all sides when arriving at your conclusion.
For instance, your logic has become a bit circular. You are very down about UT losing to a less talented Mizzou. Discount for a moment how heavily you are leaning on Cincy's opponents win/loss record, without turning to that same evaluation when looking at UT v. Mizzou. Boil your viewpoint down even further than that. When Jones beat Louisville in 2010 you discount it by saying it was Strong's first year and Louisville had a losing record the year before. True. But, that comparison, among others, allows you to penalize Jones both at Cincy and at UT for being on both sides of a similar event. In essence, you are saying that Jones win against Strong's more talented team in 2010 doesn't count as that was Strong's first year and Louisville had a losing season the year prior. Yet, Jones should be penalized for losing to Pinkel's less talented team even though it is Jones' first year and UT had a losing season the year prior. You've set it up so Jones cannot be viewed positively.
Jones beat Strong's more talented teams 2 out of 3 years with the one loss being in over-time. Did Bridgewater just show up in 2012, in overtime?
Yes, I included Jones wins over all teams he played and their win loss record. He beat lower division teams who went on to have a winning record. Why did I count those games? Because they count. Are they impressive? Not really but at the same time, didn't something like 7 of those lower division teams upset top division teams this year? Conversely, you excluded the meat of Jones schedule which was teams with a higher talent average. Jones' didn't just beat VaTech and NCSU who had better talent, he beat Louisville, South Florida, Pittsburgh, Rutgers. Again, you discount the talent argument by using their win/loss records (which weren't stellar) but then use the talent argument against Jones (Mizzou) while ignoring that their win/loss record IS stellar.
How many lower division teams has UT played in the same span? I believe 3. Georgia State, UT-Martin, and Montana. If my notes are right Cincy played 4, Indiana St., APSU, Delware St., Fordham. In my view, it is worse that a team like UT who averages top 15 recruiting schedules those teams than it is Cincy who barely breaks the top half in average recruiting.
Finally, yes the performance the last few games terrifies the fan boy in me but it is as irrational as being elated to beat SCAR. All that matters is a W or an L against talent averages. Close losses don't count as a win and blowout losses don't count as double losses. Besides Mizzou, our past three games have come against teams where a gulf separates our talent from theirs. Mizzou is using a system designed specifically to overcome talent disadvantages (that is ultimately what the spread is). If Mizzou had been using Saban's offense, they can't compete, but all of that is another story and another discussion.
To date, my biggest mistake when looking at these talent evaluations was the conclusion that proportional difference between talent averages should predict the score difference. Example: I believe because UT and Oregon had similar recruiting averages that the score would be a close loss for UT. That was wrong. I have since gone and taken a deeper look at that. Even if you can arrive at the correct outcome of a game about 70% of the time, at a minimum, talent averages performing against the spread is a coin toss. That means, to me, that without other factors the score differential is extremely hard to determine but the outcome isn't. You are penalizing Jones for the score-differential, while admitting that the outcome was consistent with talent (sans Mizzou).
I will leave you with this question. Would you rather lose in a blowout fashion to teams with a severe talent advantage (and trip up against one team with less talent), or lose close to teams we should beat (Dooley's forte)? Again, right now we are just one game below talent predictions. So is Auburn. Very likely we win out and go bowling. If not, let's discuss what it means then.
Below is a graphic of Jones' performance at Cincy vs. recruiting averages. The bowl game against Duke in 2012 is shown as white as Jones did not coach that game. It is not included in the predicted or actual win totals.
EDIT: Yikes. Please disregard some nasty spelling mistakes in the chart below. When you misspell something in excel, it happily duplicates that for you every time you push the first letter of that word. Nice.
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tm3
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The data mining can certainly suggest some reasons to be optimistic such as CBJs tendency to win above talent level.
It can also suggest some reasons for concern, such as a 12-9 record in the Big Least (iirc, a 7 team conference and one of the weakest) and that his "championships" of same were iirc a 3 way tie and a 4 way tie. Out of 7 schools.
Of additional concern is that if CBJ is the outstanding coach that some here claim, why was he not on the radar (UT, VN, national media) much, much sooner? He had to be enticed to break a verbal commitment to CO, and UT had to pony up $3.1mil annually to land him vs the what, $900k that CO was offering?
IMO there are some positives overall, but there are certainly some reasons for concern. We will know a lot more after the next two games, and after NSD.
It can also suggest some reasons for concern, such as a 12-9 record in the Big Least (iirc, a 7 team conference and one of the weakest) and that his "championships" of same were iirc a 3 way tie and a 4 way tie. Out of 7 schools.
Of additional concern is that if CBJ is the outstanding coach that some here claim, why was he not on the radar (UT, VN, national media) much, much sooner? He had to be enticed to break a verbal commitment to CO, and UT had to pony up $3.1mil annually to land him vs the what, $900k that CO was offering?
IMO there are some positives overall, but there are certainly some reasons for concern. We will know a lot more after the next two games, and after NSD.
tm3
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i can remember one VN poster calling for CBJ. there may have been others, but i only remember one.
there was a lot of positive digging on CDD, also (but not as in-depth and formal as yours, obviously).
*7 years working under Saban, longest of any assistant
*recruiting coordinator for the greatest recruiter of all time, Saban, while at LSWho
*son of a SEC legendary coach
*took LTech to its first bowl game in 30 years
*had a losing season year #1 but then won 8 games in #2
*losing season #3 but due to unprecedented injuries
*"dreamed" of being an SEC coach
*played LSWho (along with a couple of other big teams) to the wire while at LTech
etc
I have a vivid memory of reading a list of top coaches (from some national outlet), might have been around 2011. Anyway, had a thing on Jones and said that he should have been hired before Dooley and should be given a shot after Dooley is fired...or something to that effect. The conclusion was: Wait until Jones gets the resources of a major school and see what he can do. You are right though, there was at least one poster here who said Jones was the man. There were approximately one billion others who thought Gruden was coming. I admit, I fell for it too.
I supported Dooley at first, and didn't start this sort of evaluation until last year. If memory serves, one of the things that changed my mind (after he lost to MSU) was going back and looking at his performance v talent averages and it was consistent at La-tech with what we saw at UT, generally.
These are all good points. Many of them are in direct conflict with each other. Right now my only conclusion is to stay the course and see what happens the next two games before we even make an initial assessment. If in three weeks we are bowl bound, the mood around here will change.
If no bowl game, we have plenty of time to nit pick it all to death. I am leaning towards saying that there is really no outcome from what is left this year to draw any sweeping generalities but it would dampen my mood considerably.
The weakness to some of the comparisons that I see being made is that a coach can only win or lose against the schedule he has been given, he cannot win or lose the games of his opponents as well. If there are extenuating circumstances such as injuries to opponents, lets throw all that in the pot but to say that Jones didn't over perform against admittedly bad competition is a little incomplete.
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knoxvols11
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darkgable
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You know the pessimists and haters can sit there and knock old Saban all they want but he's doing something right. It was stated that you can walk through the facility and "feel" the expectation throughout the program is what Butch is trying to bring back to TN. We used to have that same feel back in the day and it's been stripped away slowly throughout the years. Make fun of his corny sayings and his "eye discipline" comments and "making your own momentum" and other analogies but Butch is putting everything he has into the program to bring back that culture we've been missing. Our brick by brick process is frustrating as h@ll and it makes you want to pull your hair out but it takes time. The jimmies and joes are coming people. I don't want a coach that's going to cave in to the fan pressure and ridicule. I want a coach that believes in his scheme and what he's doing. When he has everything in place then we can truly judge whether or not he's cut out for the job. Until then I'm going to enjoy this rebuild from the ground up.
darkgable
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People can hypothesize all day long about what happens when players go to the NFL but right now Bama is undefeated. You can have cursory findings that players don't meet expectations in the League but Bama is undefeated. People can accuse ol Nicky boy of cheating til the cows come home but since Nick has been there they haven't been hit with sanctions by the NCAA. With everything people think they know they keep rolling along with #1 recruiting classes and wiping the floor with their competition and playing for national championships. All the haters keep speculating about that program the same way they do Kentucky but they keep winning. One day when Big Orange is back on top playing for national championships and bringing in #1 recruiting classes, guess what the other boards are going to be saying about us? Here's a taste: I have a hypothesis I want to test, but I don't have the time to do it myself. Perhaps we can crowd source this. It would be interesting to see if Butch is truly developing talent. My theory is that if talent is developed that it goes on to succeed, once drafted, in the NFL. Look at Saban's classes through the 2000's.
So the question is, once Butch gets superior talent, and it gets drafted, is it staying and performing in the NFL at a rate above or below other schools who push talent into the NFL?
The NFL is not my wheelhouse, so that might be an exceedingly obvious question with an obvious answer. My cursory findings, though, tend to support an idea that the Vols have had many players get drafted over the last decade, that they seem to have a higher percentage of players who don't meet expectations created by their performance in college.
This is baffling to me. I for one don't accuse Bama of cheating. I don't think there is any logical proof that such a problem exists. I give Saban complete credit for being a masterful recruiter and a competent coach. I think much could be done to decipher what he is doing in both realms, as it is working.
Other than that, I fail to see any necessary connection between what Saban is doing and what UT is doing.
This isn't about what to do wrong (although volumes could be written on UT's downfall), this conversation was about how to do things right, and what it means to really do something right. Like...whether or not Bama's players are undefeated, and have 3 championship rings, are they surviving in the NFL? Are they as superior in the NFL as they appear to be in college? If not, why? Is it about player development that makes success or just about player recruitment? If there is data to suggest that Saban's players are over-valued when they enter the NFL, it tends to lend more credence to my assertion that the majority of his success is reliant upon recruiting, not coaching or development.
That is the point. I want to find what it takes to get the winning edge, to take the next evolutionary leap beyond what Saban is doing, and exploit that.
As I said, I haven't formulated a conclusion on that aspect yet, just a hypothesis that they might be failing out of the NFL at a higher rate than you would expect. If you have data to bring to the table, show me. I will love it regardless of what it says.
Until then...talking about Saban in hushed reverence isn't helping us achieve our goals.
Saban isn't reading what we write here, and if you try to discover how and why Saban's system works, even if he did read it and found it unpleasant, he won't come and declare prima nocta on your wife. You're safe to freely discuss the positives and negatives of Saban and his abilities without showing complete submissive awe. I promise.
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VolStrom
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Thank you. I am an engineer's son so I grew up being told to distinguish fact from feeling. I still fall short on occasion, but find that those lessons have helped me succeed professionally and in educational environs for many of my 34 years.
I started owned and ran a land surveying / civil engineering firm for about 7 years before I pivoted and gave in to the dark side. I have since sold the business and am less than 18 months from graduating from...law school.
Grab your pitchforks and torches. lol
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