What I've been thinking on Jones resume

[landscapingvol]

I don't know why teams don't use the intentional field goal miss or my personal favorite the intentional fumble.

 

[Grayvol]

That is just stupid, intentional TD call good grief

It happens.

 

[patrick]

I have an hypothesis that I want to test, but I don't have the time to do it myself. Perhaps we can crowd source this. It would be interesting to see if Saban is truly developing talent. My theory is that if talent is developed that it goes on to succeed, once drafted, in the NFL. Look at Fulmer's classes through the late 90s and early 00's.

So the question is, once Saban gets superior talent, and it gets drafted, is it staying and performing in the NFL at a rate above or below other schools who push talent into the NFL?

The NFL is not my wheelhouse, so that might be an exceedingly obvious question with an obvious answer. My cursory findings, though, tend to support an idea that USC and Bama have had many players get drafted over the last decade, that they seem to have a higher percentage of players who don't meet expectations created by their performance in college.

Again, I could be very wrong about this as admittedly I watch 0 NFL football and have only dipped into looking at talent in relation to performance in the NFL at a very base level.

I would be more interested to see their development within the college they played for from Freshman yr to Senior to see if there are any noticeable improvements in performance. And whether that player shows tangible improvement (say number of tackles) but one problem would be whether say increase in tackles in related to increased playing time.....But I guess that could be tracked with tackles per minute played, for example.

 

[daj2576]

Not relying on media to tell me. Players have been fairly vocal about it. Plus it is obvious when watching them that they do a better job than anyone in football in getting the matchups that they want. That requires some complex reads and goes well beyond mere talent.

Saban's success goes far beyond merely getting talent.

It seems to me that you are saying the scheme is complex because it works, yet it works because they get the best matchups (another way of saying that they put superior talent against equal or inferior talent). Which is it? Do you honestly believe that Saban's system works because it is complex and not because he has better talent?

Look, I get it. You love football. We all do. You believe the majesty of football lies not in the most simple explanation (talent wins) but in the intangibles. People want to believe in the intangibles, that is the American dream, right? If you have more heart, or desire, or try harder you will win. While all of that can be true in football, it is the exception and not the rule. The truth to football is far simpler...talent explains most wins. Why else is recruiting so important? Why does the NFL invert the draft to assure that the worst teams get first pick?

 

[daj2576]

I would be more interested to see their development within the college they played for from Freshman yr to Senior to see if there are any noticeable improvements in performance. And whether that player shows tangible improvement (say number of tackles) but one problem would be whether say increase in tackles in related to increased playing time.....But I guess that could be tracked with tackles per minute played, for example.

I get what you are saying, and that would be interesting. From where I sit though that is inconclusive as to the development of players from an enter-to-leave standpoint.

The key to development, to me, is simply finding if the greatest recruited talent at Bama ends up proportionally succeeding in the NFL, or if there are trends above and below what should be expected. I just don't know how to get there from here.

 

[volglass]

That is just stupid, intentional TD call good grief

Thanks for the compliment. Now, I'll call you COACH and you come up with a better strategy...

Second down, tied game with 2 minutes left and opponents have the ball on your 7 yard line. You have one timeout and a senior-potential Heisman QB. If you let them run 2 more plays, use your timeout, and let them kick a chip shot field goal then you get the ball kicked to you with at most 28 seconds. (40 sec play clocks, 6 sec avg per play) That does not count the seconds lost when the ball is kicked, nor does it take into account a home field clock operator. This scenario leaves you with perhaps 20 seconds, with no timeouts, to get into field goal range, line up, and make a kick.

Now, go back to landscaping outside of some booster's house (I remember your "sources" from the coaching search) or you can give me a better coaching decision.

 

[volglass]

I don't know why teams don't use the intentional field goal miss or my personal favorite the intentional fumble.

You mean the Nebraska Fumble-rooskie play?

1984 Orange Bowl National Championship - "FUMBLEROOSKI" - YouTube

 

[volguy27]

Obvious the 1st thing I think about is how he replaced Brain Kelly at both stops and wonder if that is a bad thing that helps boost his results as a coach. Of course, Kelly took both schools to conference titles in3 years at each.

Then I think, Jones walked into a stable, good program and took MAC and BE talent and had success against MAC and BE talent. He beat N Illinois at CMU for their 1st win against them since 98 and had their 1st win at home against W Michigan since 93. He lost only 3 games in MAC play in 3 years.

He then tied for 1st in consecutive years (after a 4-8 start) at Cincy, again with BE talent against BE talent. Sure, he walked into solid programs, but continuing to win against the same level conference proves I'll be glad when he has a potentially great team of good recruits so we can actually see if he can coach.

I know Ive post a lot lately, so if anyone wants me to chill on the posts I will lol :hi:

REALLY OP!!!!...YEAH STOP!!! he is here now you see what he is doing in recruiting..quit disecting coach jones and be very thankful fooley isnt here anymore.just sit back and enjoy what coach jones is doing...DAMN!!

 

[Reverend Bubba Flavel]

It seems to me that you are saying the scheme is complex because it works, yet it works because they get the best matchups (another way of saying that they put superior talent against equal or inferior talent). Which is it? Do you honestly believe that Saban's system works because it is complex and not because he has better talent?

Look, I get it. You love football. We all do. You believe the majesty of football lies not in the most simple explanation (talent wins) but in the intangibles. People want to believe in the intangibles, that is the American dream, right? If you have more heart, or desire, or try harder you will win. While all of that can be true in football, it is the exception and not the rule. The truth to football is far simpler...talent explains most wins. Why else is recruiting so important? Why does the NFL invert the draft to assure that the worst teams get first pick?

Of course talent wins most games in college football. But the operative word is most. The difference is that championship teams have to have more than just talent.

Think about 2 years ago when LSU beat Bamer in the regular season. Then in the BCS championship Bamer destroyed LSU. Just the mere fact of different results suggest somethign more than talent.

Plus, it is debateable which team had more talent. Certainly LSU was one of the most, if not the most talented defenses in the country and Bamer's passing game shredded them. While LSU didn't have great QB play they did have playmakers and could not get past the 50 year old line. That is coaching

Look at Auburn this year. Winless in the conference last year. They pull in a class around 20th in the nation yet are now in the top 10 and have a chance to go to Atlanta. You cannot explain that away with just talent - it makes no sense.
I could go on and on.

 

[daj2576]

Of course talent wins most games in college football. But the operative word is most. The difference is that championship teams have to have more than just talent.

Think about 2 years ago when LSU beat Bamer in the regular season. Then in the BCS championship Bamer destroyed LSU. Just the mere fact of different results suggest somethign more than talent.

Plus, it is debateable which team had more talent. Certainly LSU was one of the most, if not the most talented defenses in the country and Bamer's passing game shredded them. While LSU didn't have great QB play they did have playmakers and could not get past the 50 year old line. That is coaching

Look at Auburn this year. Winless in the conference last year. They pull in a class around 20th in the nation yet are now in the top 10 and have a chance to go to Atlanta. You cannot explain that away with just talent - it makes no sense.
I could go on and on.

Auburn is completely explainable, they have recruited at a high level for several years. Anyone who looks at these sort of evaluations knew that all that Auburn was lacking was a coach. Chizik was worse than Dooley. Auburn had fallen within the exception to the rule, and not the rule. In fact, Auburn is slightly under-performing this year with their loss to LSU. That is a sign of how good they have recruited (and also a sign that LSU is ticking downwards a bit).

30% of games cannot be explained by talent, which also goes to your conversation about Bama v. LSU. Bama out talented LSU both times, and only won once. That, however, is consistent with the notion that Saban tends to drop a game a year that he should not lose, but losing one game did not effect his chances of winning the national championship. I think that ends with the playoff system arriving.

What you are doing is trying to extrapolate out from the exception to form a rule. That is like saying that you see a dog with fleas so all dogs must have fleas. It just isn't true. Talent wins the majority of games. When it doesn't, you usually find coaches or systems that are the explanation.

And by most games, I can quantify that by telling you it is roughly 70% overall, 80% in the SEC, and 90% in BCS championship games. That is pretty persuasive, to me anyway.

 

[Other_Guy]

REALLY OP!!!!...YEAH STOP!!! he is here now you see what he is doing in recruiting..quit disecting coach jones and be very thankful fooley isnt here anymore.just sit back and enjoy what coach jones is doing...DAMN!!

What the heck?

You are completely misreading me dude. I'm saying Jonees was successful with BE talent vs BE talent and MAC vs MAC but here in the SEC he doesn't really have a good team to show his skills.

Sorry that I may have not worded it right. I was saying exciteedly I can't wait for his to field a good team because he's had success on a level playing field in 2 other conferences but hasn't had a level playing field playing top 15 teams.

 

[GAMECOCK]

Butch has already out coached Richt and Spurrier in his first year here with average talent....if he keeps or adds more top level recruits to this class and signs them all...and one more signing class like this one after that....then there should be no reason we will be back very soon k:

Out coached Spurrier?lol:

 

[Wylo]

That is just stupid, intentional TD call good grief

you may not believe it, but it's true.

 

[warreng]

I don't have enough posts to start a thread, but this question seems to fit here.

How many players under CBJ have gone on to the NFL, both recruits and inherited? I am pretty sure he recruited the number 1 draft pick this year, right?

 

[Burger]

I don't have enough posts to start a thread, but this question seems to fit here.

How many players under CBJ have gone on to the NFL, both recruits and inherited? I am pretty sure he recruited the number 1 draft pick this year, right?

Its actually a big number. He put a lot of linemen on both sides on the NFL. He also has wideouts there like Tompkins, woods, and brown. He had two tes drafted in one year and T. Kelce was after them. I'm forgetting players like Pead also.

 

[sjt18]

Prior to some of the guys here claiming that the only problems or even potential problems are "talent" and depth... I didn't really look into Jones record at Cincy that deeply. Now, I have.

Obvious the 1st thing I think about is how he replaced Brain Kelly at both stops and wonder if that is a bad thing that helps boost his results as a coach. Of course, Kelly took both schools to conference titles in3 years at each.

Personally I think that is more than offset by the facilities and support he has at UT... if he and his staff can coach.

He then tied for 1st in consecutive years (after a 4-8 start) at Cincy, again with BE talent against BE talent. Sure, he walked into solid programs, but continuing to win against the same level conference proves coaching.

Well, maybe.

In his first year at Cincy he faced 10 FBS teams that finished with a winning record. That's a pretty SEC comparable challenge. He will probably face that many this year at UT. However the next year he faced 5 and his best year in '12 was against a schedule that included only 4 FBS schools that would finish with a winning record. So was it coaching... weaker schedules... or some combination?

In 3 years at Cincy, he faced only 3 ranked teams (none his 2nd year). All were close games.... and losses.

In those 3 years Cincy faced 18 FBS schools that finished with a winning record. They defeated only 6.

I just found a more friendly site for tallying up the total wins/losses of the teams beaten by Jones at Cincy. I was incorrect before. The combined record of the teams he beat there was 111-139. The team with the best record he beat was against a 10-4 Miami, OH team... during his 4 win first season.

In his two championship seasons, he defeated only two teams with 8 wins... the rest had less.

I want to be as hopeful as anyone here... but I simply don't expect the schedules he will face going forward to cooperate quite that well.

I'll be glad when he has a potentially great team of good recruits so we can actually see if he can coach.

I know Ive post a lot lately, so if anyone wants me to chill on the posts I will lol :hi:

I like Jones and want him to be successful. I think has potential as a coach. He's a great representative of the program and an all around good guy. He is doing an astounding job of recruiting.

But I have doubts based on facts and history... and current performance. I don't find as much comfort in his record of winning or tying for championships as I did previously. His wins were mostly run up against pretty weak competition. And lastly, he's probably never had a roster with more raw talent on it than he has right now. Granted it is a whole different level of competition...

 

[Burger]

Prior to some of the guys here claiming that the only problems or even potential problems are "talent" and depth... I didn't really look into Jones record at Cincy that deeply. Now, I have. Personally I think that is more than offset by the facilities and support he has at UT... if he and his staff can coach.

Well, maybe.

In his first year at Cincy he faced 10 FBS teams that finished with a winning record. That's a pretty SEC comparable challenge. He will probably face that many this year at UT. However the next year he faced 5 and his best year in '12 was against a schedule that included only 4 FBS schools that would finish with a winning record. So was it coaching... weaker schedules... or some combination?

In 3 years at Cincy, he faced only 3 ranked teams (none his 2nd year). All were close games.... and losses.

In those 3 years Cincy faced 18 FBS schools that finished with a winning record. They defeated only 6.

I just found a more friendly site for tallying up the total wins/losses of the teams beaten by Jones at Cincy. I was incorrect before. The combined record of the teams he beat there was 111-139. The team with the best record he beat was against a 10-4 Miami, OH team... during his 4 win first season.



I like Jones and want him to be successful. I think has potential as a coach. He's a great representative of the program and an all around good guy. He is doing an astounding job of recruiting.

But I have doubts based on facts and history... and current performance. I don't find as much comfort in his record of winning or tying for championships as I did previously. His wins were mostly run up against pretty weak competition. And lastly, he's probably never had a roster with more raw talent on it than he has right now. Granted it is a whole different level of competition...

For some reason, I've seen plenty of Butch over the last 6 years. His best victory was against Michigan State at Central Michigan. He always had well coached teams, and his defense was a lot more agressive at Cincy. Butch has put in a significant amount of players in the NFL. They range from Dan Lefevor from CMU to Jason Kelce the center at UC. He has a lot of defensive linemen including Hughes, Derek Wolfe, and Giordano. His key position as a coach is wide out and tight end.

 

[sjt18]

For some reason, I've seen plenty of Butch over the last 6 years. His best victory was against Michigan State at Central Michigan. He always had well coached teams, and his defense was a lot more agressive at Cincy. Butch has put in a significant amount of players in the NFL. They range from Dan Lefevor from CMU to Jason Kelce the center at UC. He has a lot of defensive linemen including Hughes, Derek Wolfe, and Giordano. His key position as a coach is wide out and tight end.

I hope you are right. I hope those putting so much faith in Jancek are right.

I like Jones alot and have nothing against Jancek except his performance so far. The "best" answer is for them to succeed with no changes to the staff... I'm just looking for some better indications that this DC is the right DC.

There were some really good ones out there when Jones decided to bring him along. I hope it was not a mistake... and if it was that Jones will take action at the right time.

 

[sjt18]

For some reason, I've seen plenty of Butch over the last 6 years. His best victory was against Michigan State at Central Michigan.

I'd disagree. That was a bad MSU team that beat no one that was any good and finished 6-7.

I'd say his best wins were at Cincy vs NCSU or VT. Both were good teams with pretty good coaches.

 

[Burger]

I hope you are right. I hope those putting so much faith in Jancek are right.

I like Jones alot and have nothing against Jancek except his performance so far. The "best" answer is for them to succeed with no changes to the staff... I'm just looking for some better indications that this DC is the right DC.

There were some really good ones out there when Jones decided to bring him along. I hope it was not a mistake... and if it was that Jones will take action at the right time.

Jancek had an impressive defense last year. I would like to see some new players before I judge that. Our offense will be a lot better next year.

 

[sjt18]

Jancek had an impressive defense last year. I would like to see some new players before I judge that. Our offense will be a lot better next year.

Jancek only face 5 teams that finished with a winning record last year and Cincy lost to 3 of them. I'm looking for a reason to be impressed with him... but don't see it yet.

I agree. I think the O will be better. "A lot" depends on the OL. That's another reason I wish Jones would yank some of the current starters and give guys like Crowder, Kerbyson, and even Weisman a shot at showing out... and getting some experience for next year.

I mean the aggression those guys show when they do play makes up for alot of mistakes. You stick to your block and finish... then you have a chance to make good things happen even if you totally block the wrong guy or block him in the wrong direction.

That's one thing Mizzou's OL does. They stay on their blocks and push even if it is in the direction of the play. Eventually, they know they'll create a crease. UT's OL either opens the designed hole or everything collapses on the RB.

 

[Burger]

Jancek only face 5 teams that finished with a winning record last year and Cincy lost to 3 of them. I'm looking for a reason to be impressed with him... but don't see it yet.

I agree. I think the O will be better. "A lot" depends on the OL. That's another reason I wish Jones would yank some of the current starters and give guys like Crowder, Kerbyson, and even Weisman a shot at showing out... and getting some experience for next year.

I mean the aggression those guys show when they do play makes up for alot of mistakes. You stick to your block and finish... then you have a chance to make good things happen even if you totally block the wrong guy or block him in the wrong direction.

That's one thing Mizzou's OL does. They stay on their blocks and push even if it is in the direction of the play. Eventually, they know they'll create a crease. UT's OL either opens the designed hole or everything collapses on the RB.

I think the loss to Louisville he only allowed 10 points. I consider that quite good, but I'm not the end all be all here. I agree with you on the oline comment. To be able to run block, there is an aggressiveness needed. Look at the best of them, they all were mean! You cannot miss your block. It pisses me off on D when our guy is in a position to make a good play, and he misses the tackle!

 

[knoxvols11]

That is just stupid, intentional TD call good grief

You know, in defense of the poster you quoted, I actually thought the same thing he did. As mundane as it sounds I did and the one rhing that pointed me to that is the 01 game!

 

[Wylo]

What were his other options?

COLORADO and PURDUE.


Says a lot....

 

[daj2576]

Jancek only face 5 teams that finished with a winning record last year and Cincy lost to 3 of them. I'm looking for a reason to be impressed with him... but don't see it yet.

I agree. I think the O will be better. "A lot" depends on the OL. That's another reason I wish Jones would yank some of the current starters and give guys like Crowder, Kerbyson, and even Weisman a shot at showing out... and getting some experience for next year.

I mean the aggression those guys show when they do play makes up for alot of mistakes. You stick to your block and finish... then you have a chance to make good things happen even if you totally block the wrong guy or block him in the wrong direction.

That's one thing Mizzou's OL does. They stay on their blocks and push even if it is in the direction of the play. Eventually, they know they'll create a crease. UT's OL either opens the designed hole or everything collapses on the RB.

My friend, I still think you are being a little extra hard on Jones and are looking for a reason to be bleak. In essence, you are looking at stats but are interpreting them in the worst light.

For instance, in regards to Jones time at Cincy. The dude beat 23 of the teams put in front of him. That means he only lost to 14 of his total possibilities, and 8 of those came his first year. He won 2/3 of the games he played, and had 2 seasons with 9 or more wins.

The teams he beat had a combined record of 127-156. Of those 23 teams that Jones beat, 9 were bowl caliber teams, 12 had a winning record. On average Jones beat teams who had a record of 5.5-6.5. He also beat two ACC teams in NCSU and VaTech,and he beat Louisville (the pride of the big east) 2x. All had considerably more talent on hand.

I agree, that isn't great competition overall, but where the rubber hits the road is in talent evaluations, not in record alone. The question is, given the talent that he had on hand, how many teams should he have beaten and then how did he recruit? If you are downing a loss to Mizzou here, on those grounds, shouldn't you look at how Jones did at Cincy using that same prism?

Isn't all you can ask of a coach using Big East talent in the Big East, that he wins more than the games he should and that he improves recruiting?

How about this.

2010: With a recruiting average of 68.75, Cincy was predicted to win 4 games, and won 4 games. (talent + 0). He actually beat Louisville (55) and Rutgers (37) who he should have lost to, but lost UConn and Syracuse, who he should have beaten (he never lost to those teams again).

2011: With a recruiting average of 58.75, Cincy was predicted to win 6 games, and won 10 including wins over higher rated Pitt, USF, Louisville and NCSU (Vandy actually had a talent average of 73 at the time). (talent + 4). Many people bash Jones for losing to Dooley that year. Consider that Dooley had a team with a talent average of about 17, to Jones' 59.

2012: With a recruiting average of 54.5, Cincy was predicted to win 7 games, won 9 (not including the bowl against Duke that Jones did not coach) including wins over higher rated Pitt, Virginia Tech and USF. (talent + 2). Jones lost one game to Toledo, that he should have won, or he would have been talent +3.

Remember as your recruiting rankings climb it becomes tougher to win more games than you should as you end up towards the top of the ladder. That is the curse of being a great recruiter, that it makes it tougher to appear to over-perform. In all, Jones averaged 2 games a year more than talent predicted while at Cincy and increased talent averages by almost 14 points or about 20%. If you discount the first year where Jones was + 0, he averaged talent +3 the following two years.

Below is a look at how Cincy recruited from before Kelly's term until Tubberville's first class. Did you notice above that each year Jones' talent average increased?

See chart below.

Kelly accounts for the 2007, 2008 and 2009 classes. Jones accounts for the 2010, 2011 and 2012 classes. How about Tubbs falling from about 50 to 70 in one year?

Consider this all just applied context, or food for thought.