Where do we stand talent-wise in 2013?

[Eddie Vol Halen]

Fulmer's strength was recruiting and then not hindering that talent by his coaching.

Spurrier was the first coach to show the holes in Fulmer's ability, followed by guys like Saban/Miles/Meyer.

The downfall of Fulmer was that those aforementioned coaches figured out how to keep good talent in-state, and how to coach them. Fulmer then could no longer rely on simple smash mouth football, or better talent. So the perception is that he changed, or got lazy. He didn't, the SEC got better and he didn't change.

Yet, even in the so-called down years, we were in Atlanta every three years.

Spurrier and Saban > Fulmer, but they are also > than every other coach in Div I. I'm not sold on Meyer or Miles in that list. Meyer clearly relied on the best collegiate player of this generation, and Miles was dead-even I believe, and got beat by Rick Clausen.

Problem is, we let Hambone fire Fulmer when the SECE was at its strongest, and now we've suffered being terrible at a time when the SECE has been its weakest since expansion.

 

[daj2576]

Yet, even in the so-called down years, we were in Atlanta every three years.

Spurrier and Saban > Fulmer, but they are also > than every other coach in Div I. I'm not sold on Meyer or Miles in that list. Meyer clearly relied on the best collegiate player of this generation, and Miles was dead-even I believe, and got beat by Rick Clausen.

Problem is, we let Hambone fire Fulmer when the SECE was at its strongest, and now we've suffered being terrible at a time when the SECE has been its weakest since expansion.

Well, you make many strong points that I tend to agree with.

The problem is that those coaches, whether you are sold on them or not, are coaching to a level higher than Fulmer was able to at the end, or more importantly, that he would be able to coach to now. The key to this hypothesis isn't even how many times a coach goes to the SEC championship game, because that can be skewed by the strength of their division. The key is that those coaches diminished Fulmer's ability to recruit in key states where the majority of our talent originated.

Fulmer's style of coaching required that he out talent the competition and run plays to smash and wear down opponents. Tennessee's slippage from the top tier of the SEC began well before 2008 with the rise of those other coaches, more importantly was their ability to wall off their key recruiting grounds.

 

[volswillrise12]

daj...agree with a lot of your points....it sounds like Butch is going to upgrade us no matter what happens. Dooley killed with the time management and the other stupid administrative moves...the team was undisciplined and not prepared and anyone could see that from watching Tennessee games. The death blow was Kentucky for me and then the mass exodus of all the assistant coaches.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

Well, you make many strong points that I tend to agree with.

The problem is that those coaches, whether you are sold on them or not, are coaching to a level higher than Fulmer was able to at the end, or more importantly, that he would be able to coach to now. The key to this hypothesis isn't even how many times a coach goes to the SEC championship game, because that can be skewed by the strength of their division. The key is that those coaches diminished Fulmer's ability to recruit in key states where the majority of our talent originated.

Fulmer's style of coaching required that he out talent the competition and run plays to smash and wear down opponents. Tennessee's slippage from the top tier of the SEC began well before 2008 with the rise of those other coaches, more importantly was their ability to wall off their key recruiting grounds.

But your key argument is (and I agree) talent rules.

Ray Goff probably had MORE talent at GA than Richt, and he did less with it. Richt has been successful.

I've maintained for a very long time that Tennessee has a natural recruiting disadvantage. Despite perception, Spurrier's Florida teams were always more talented than the Vols in the 1990s.

Yet, even in the (so-called) down years we probably only have one losing season (the Wyoming loss is all Hambone's), even when the better coaches were keeping more talent in-state, we were still in Atlanta every three years, and played the eventual NC in each of those SECCGs.

Fulmer wasn't suddenly going to be better than Spurrier or Saban. But Spurrier at South Carolina didn't have a recruiting advantage, and thanks to the fortune of having the worst 5* QB play in the history of the NCAA, only managed to break even against the Vols.

From that perspective, Fulmer is >> than Saban and Spurrier who have always enjoyed a natural recruiting advantage in the SEC.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Right now I'd say we are a 7-5 or 8-4 team from a talent perspective.

From a depth and experience perspective we are about a 5-7 team.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

Well, you make many strong points that I tend to agree with.

The problem is that those coaches, whether you are sold on them or not, are coaching to a level higher than Fulmer was able to at the end, or more importantly, that he would be able to coach to now. The key to this hypothesis isn't even how many times a coach goes to the SEC championship game, because that can be skewed by the strength of their division. The key is that those coaches diminished Fulmer's ability to recruit in key states where the majority of our talent originated.

Fulmer's style of coaching required that he out talent the competition and run plays to smash and wear down opponents. Tennessee's slippage from the top tier of the SEC began well before 2008 with the rise of those other coaches, more importantly was their ability to wall off their key recruiting grounds.

PS - we went to one of those SECCG's in a year when Georgia finished #2 in the final rankings. Admittedly, somehow Hawaii was in the Sugar Bowl, but there you go. Fact is, we beat them (handily) on the field.

I'm not sure the bold survives scrutiny.

 

[99gator]

Yet, even in the so-called down years, we were in Atlanta every three years.

Spurrier and Saban > Fulmer, but they are also > than every other coach in Div I. I'm not sold on Meyer or Miles in that list. Meyer clearly relied on the best collegiate player of this generation, and Miles was dead-even I believe, and got beat by Rick Clausen.

Problem is, we let Hambone fire Fulmer when the SECE was at its strongest, and now we've suffered being terrible at a time when the SECE has been its weakest since expansion.

you're not sold on urban meyer?

he has an 83% winning percentage (116-23) having coached 11 seasons.

by the end of the 2013 season, he will more than likely take a 3rd school to a bcs bowl.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

you're not sold on urban meyer?

he has an 83% winning percentage (116-23) having coached 11 seasons.

by the end of the 2013 season, he will more than likely take a 3rd school to a bcs bowl.

The man was on Carter's liver pills in clearly the best job in college football once his man Tebow graduated.

Clearly Meyer is an exceptional coach, but the SEC is filled with those. He is definitely SEC calibre, which means I expect him to whip azz and take names at Ohio State in the Big 10.

When I say "not sold" I mean relative to being that much better than Fulmer. IMHO, the Vols are probably 4 - 1 against these last few Gator teams with Fulmer (even during the "down years"). Kudos to Muschamp last year, but you've had the weakest Gator teams of a full generation since Tebow left, and Louisville exposed it.

And I know you are man enough to admit that.

 

[99gator]

The man was on Carter's liver pills in clearly the best job in college football once his man Tebow graduated.

Clearly Meyer is an exceptional coach, but the SEC is filled with those. He is definitely SEC calibre, which means I expect him to whip azz and take names at Ohio State in the Big 10.

When I say "not sold" I mean relative to being that much better than Fulmer. IMHO, the Vols are probably 4 - 1 against these last few Gator teams with Fulmer (even during the "down years"). Kudos to Muschamp last year, but you've had the weakest Gator teams of a full generation since Tebow left, and Louisville exposed it.

And I know you are man enough to admit that.

i don't agree with any of that other than the 2010 and 2011 gator teams weren't any good.

 

[daj2576]

But your key argument is (and I agree) talent rules.

Ray Goff probably had MORE talent at GA than Richt, and he did less with it. Richt has been successful.

I've maintained for a very long time that Tennessee has a natural recruiting disadvantage. Despite perception, Spurrier's Florida teams were always more talented than the Vols in the 1990s.

Yet, even in the (so-called) down years we probably only have one losing season (the Wyoming loss is all Hambone's), even when the better coaches were keeping more talent in-state, we were still in Atlanta every three years, and played the eventual NC in each of those SECCGs.

Fulmer wasn't suddenly going to be better than Spurrier or Saban. But Spurrier at South Carolina didn't have a recruiting advantage, and thanks to the fortune of having the worst 5* QB play in the history of the NCAA, only managed to break even against the Vols.

From that perspective, Fulmer is >> than Saban and Spurrier who have always enjoyed a natural recruiting advantage in the SEC.

Eh, I agree with many of your presumptions just disagree with your conclusion.

Fulmer's time had passed, much like Bowden, Holtz, and other legendary coaches of their day.

My key point is that Fulmer was not a great coach, he was a competent coach and most importantly a great recruiter.

When his ability to recruit was yanked away from him by other coaches, it was only a matter of time. That isn't something that you get back when those other teams start winning and becoming most attractive to young recruits.

In hindsight I wish that Fulmer had been allowed to go out more gracefully, but he was done whether he admitted it or not. That transition is what has hurt the most over the past half decade, not the absence of the coach specifically. Bottom line: our pain was caused by a series of bad decisions after his firing, not just his firing.

You did hit on a key note, and that is that talent is key. The really good news there is that there is a rising level of talent in the area that surrounds Knoxville. Preface this with understanding that something like 80% of recruits go to a school that is about a half days drive from home. As that talent pool increases, and it is, so will Tennessee's fortunes.

The other part of that good news is that it seems that Butch is not only capitalizing on this understanding, but can also utilize the 20% of those recruits who go farther away to school to find some real top notch game changers.

 

[daj2576]

PS - we went to one of those SECCG's in a year when Georgia finished #2 in the final rankings. Admittedly, somehow Hawaii was in the Sugar Bowl, but there you go. Fact is, we beat them (handily) on the field.

I'm not sure the bold survives scrutiny.

The reason the bold statement survives scrutiny is because it is not a specific statement but a statement of general trend. Pointing out that there is an exception does not break the rule, or the trend.

 

[RichRollin]

Tennessee has more talent, in the SEC, than SCAR, Missouri, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, aTm, and Ole Miss (not in that order).

In the SEC east, adjusted for attrition and not including the 2013 class, Tennessee is the third most talented team behind 1) UGA, and 2) UF.

There is a difference between talent and experience. Our experience, contrary to what most people who watched last year's team would like to think, is the defense and the offensive line. This years defense will look totally different. Last year's defense wasn't just simply a problem with players lacking talent. But, that is the sort of evaluation that Athlon, Lundy's and others will give you.

The other strength is the offensive line. Someone earlier made the comment that the 2's are extremely talented. That is correct. The 1's are certainly more experienced, but with proper rotation this year, we could have a reasonably experienced and very talented line next year, even with those who leave to go pro or graduate.

The glaring weakness is in the experience of the WRs, TEs and QBs. The group replacing those guys of Hunter, Bray and Patterson don't have anywhere near the experience obviously. There are two reasons to be hopeful, 1) Jones isn't going to try to pull a Sunseri on the offense and bullheadedly attempt to make something work that can't. In fact, I would suspect the exact opposite. He is going to run short high percentage pass plays with a stout running game. It won't be as powerful as last year's offense, true. But, last year's offense was deceiving insofar as how badly the talent was mismanaged and the game plan ill conceived. 2) We have experienced RBs to run behind a very experienced and talented line. People tend to downplay Lane/Neal but their ability, coupled with the O-Line, will be able to take the pressure off of the youth of the other offensive weapons.

I strongly believe that a 7-5 season is the most reasonable expectation for this year. Don't make the mistake of confusing talent/experience with how coaching can impact a game. Dooley and staff are one of the handful of coaches who can negatively impact talent to such a degree. On the flip side of that same coin are coaches who can positively impact talent. Those are names like Spurrier, Petrino, (chip)Kelly and yes Butch Jones.

Damn near brought a tear to my eye as I completely agree. I was saying this earlier using UT and Oregon as my example. And Oregon is a really good example being that IMO they aren't really more talented than us...if so not much. Oregon's talent has been coached the hell up. Great coaching doesn't only involve great scheme and technique. But psychologically knowing how to get in their heads and motivating them is a big part of it. Kelly took similar talent and coached them up in every way. He instilled a winning mentality. Dooley didn't coach them up and also instilled a losers mentality. You NEVER NEVER NEVER tell a team or public ally call your kids a bad team. They will believe it. Dooley was so good at it that our fans even have a defeatist attitude. They see Mamba and automatically calculate that as "better talent". We'll see if he goes higher in the draft than Tiny. I doubt it. They are flashier, have had a better coach, but the talent gap isn't nearly as wide as they make it sound. Bama, UF, UGA, LSU...we got some catching up to do. Although UGA still never scares me. But A&M, SC , etc. not so much. What they have had that we don't have is a once a decade type player (Manziel, Clowney). And you can't ignore that, yet once you get past those dudes...are they REALLY that loaded with talent? No they are not. But in comes that coaching thing again. They are coached the hell up and have experience just you stated. And they have coaches who have them ready to run thru brick walls for them.


That's where I think things will change with Butch. Obviously the guy can recruit. But he's also put in-state guys as a top priority. This state isn't on Georgia or Florida's level, but it's by no means the recruiting liability it once was.

As for last year's losses on offense...well we lost a lot of production, but I'm not sure about the mindset of those guys. I mean...laughing after dropping CRUCIAL third down passes, did Hunter really give a damn about winning? I have to seriously question the mentality of Bray and Hunter. I don't see anyone putting up their #'s this season. But they weren't winners at heart IMO. Winners don't laugh when they HURT their teams. Winners don't openly admit to not watching film after getting embarrassed on national tv. You don't see that stuff with winning program, winning coaches, winning players. I think Butch is gonna change this mentality. Perhaps a WR doesn't put up Hunter #s, but maybe he refuses to lose. Maybe the QB watches the UF film after getting his ass beat on national tv. Maybe the coach will make his team watch film when they get mauled on ESPN (Dooley/Arkansas 2011). Yes, talent is critical. But last years team was way better than 5 wins. Just like this years team is better than 5 wins. Butch seems to have the players believing. Here's to hoping he can rid the fans of their defeatist attitude that Dooley instilled in them.

A slight step back at the skill positions statistically, but a big boost from a motivation and coaching standpoint. A bit better on defense statistically and a ton better coached and motivated. Tough as nails in the trenches...7-8 wins including a bowl game should be the expectation. Anything more is icing on the cake. But this 5 loss sh** is for the birds.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

i don't agree with any of that other than the 2010 and 2011 gator teams weren't any good.

The first statement is beyond reproach.

Secondly, the 2012 exceeded all expectations, but would have been beaten 8 out of 10 times by every Gator team from 1990 to 2006.

 

[Eddie Vol Halen]

The reason the bold statement survives scrutiny is because it is not a specific statement but a statement of general trend. Pointing out that there is an exception does not break the rule, or the trend.

An "exception" in 1 in 3 years.

Not an outlier, I'm afraid.

It doesn't survive scrutiny. Fulmer had a natural recruiting disadvantage. The fact that other coaches were able to leverage their natural recruiting advantage better than past coaches at other schools, but still couldn't displace the Vols from the SECCG only cements Fulmer's place in Tennesee folklore.

 

[99gator]

The first statement is beyond reproach.

Secondly, the 2012 exceeded all expectations, but would have been beaten 8 out of 10 times by every Gator team from 1990 to 2006.

that's only half the point.

i agree it's a weaker gator squad than several other gator squads of the last several years.

it doesn't mean that it's a squad that phil fulmer at the time he was let go would have beaten.

the other thing that i disagree with is that a lot of people treat florida as if they were down for several years.

they were 13-1 in 2008, 13-1 in 2009, 8-5 in 2010, 7-6 in 2011 and 11-2 in 2012.

so, we are really talking about two seasons. the last season for one coach and first season for another. in addition, as much as a lot of folks would like to dismiss the 2012 as weak because of what they were offensively, the 2012 squad beat several highly ranked teams.

if they have a strong 2013 (and i believe they will), it's a two year blip.

 

[17Vols]

I think the UGA, SCAR and Auburn home games will tell the story.

 

[LWSVOL]

Someone posted recruiting ranking a couple weeks ago for the last four years and averaged them.

We have just as much Talent as A&M, SC and Oregon. According to rivals.

No way to know that this statement is true unless you compare, how much attrition has occurred at each program and how well the players left have produced.

High school recruiting rankings DO NOT translate to college productivity.

JMO

 

[LWSVOL]

LWS, it's glaringly obvious now, and I know you've been on the record to say it would take a decade, but I don't think you've come right out and said it was a mistake to fire Fulmer, especially letting Hambone handle it.

It is clear it was a big mistake, but was that because Hambone was in charge? I know my thoughts on the subject, but I respect your opinion.

Hard to say that it was mistake at the time but Hamilton was the driving force behind it. He certainly had buy in from the powers that be at the time and in fact was told, if you do this and it is not successful, it will cost you your job. Well, it did.

the facts are, when you fire a long time coach that has had success, at any program, the chance is much more likely that you go through 5 or 6 coaches before you hit on one that is successful. It happens many more times than it doesn't. I wanted Tennessee fans as far back as 2000 that once Fulmer left, we might very well go through several coaches and years of distress.

CPF would have done better than what he did in 2008 but I doubt he would have ever returned us to the 90s, no one will IMO. The fan base was so fractured that I feel it was probably best that he was replaced even though I felt we likely were in for a long haul back.

Phillip is a very good friend but I can't really say decision was right or wrong. No way for anyone to really know

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

High school recruiting rankings DO NOT translate to college productivity.

JMO

No, but they are a pretty good indicator of what a new coach has to work with.
Whether or not he can do anything with it remains to be seen.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

 

[LWSVOL]

So the perception is that he changed, or got lazy. He didn't, the SEC got better and he didn't change.

IMO, this is 100% accurate. The 90s, from an Tennessee standpoint, was an anomaly and UT benefitted as did CPF

 

[VolFootballlover]

I don't want to be completely negative.

But, it's going to take a different group of guys.

So far, butch's recruiting is a whole lot better than what has been signed recently.

But, the class he is working on and the next one will need time to grow up

I'm sorry but I don't agree at all with you. We played Georgia,SouthCarolina, and even the gators pretty damned close. With a Coach that the players didn't really care much for or believe in. We are not as far away as some think. I.M.O we have a coach that does more with less Talent. I think we will give any team we face this season all they want. Even with a new QB / WR!

 

[LWSVOL]

No, but they are a pretty good indicator of what a new coach has to work with.
Whether or not he can do anything with it remains to be seen.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

NOT unless you assess the attrition...

 

[99gator]

NOT unless you assess the attrition...

the bigger point is what you mentioned earlier.

there is a point where you have product knowledge.

andre debose was a 5* wr out of high school. he's not a 5* wr. so, to continue to hold onto his high school ranking as a sign of his talent is absurd.

 

[JohnnyBall]

Your starters aren't as good as any.

What is this solid d-line people speak of? When did this happen?

Dooley was a big problem. He wasn't the only problem.

Tennessee has a solid d line..

and you're an idiot

 

[LWSVOL]

the bigger point is what you mentioned earlier.

there is a point where you have product knowledge.

andre debose was a 5* wr out of high school. he's not a 5* wr. so, to continue to hold onto his high school ranking as a sign of his talent is absurd.

totally agree. both are very important in measuring the success of a recruiting class. A # 5 ranked class could fall to # 40 at end of class eligibility