Why Tennessee will have a good season this year

[hatvol96]

I like your post and welcome!

Here are some more reasons UT will have a good year:

1) Variance - Yes, luck finally swung against UT in a big way last season. We were -7 in turnovers, which with any kind of turnaround, will give us back 2-3 games.

2) Schedule - While an SEC schedule is always tough, we have a more favorable road schedule. The Cal game makes things a little tougher, but with UGA on the road with question marks, and S.C. on the road with lesser talent and depth, we could win all 4 road games.

3) YPP - Yards per point. The lower YPP on offense, the better your team performed on offense. In 2005, we had a poor 17.5 YPP (to compare, UF had a 13.4 or thereabouts). That means we scored a point for every 17.5 yards we gained. The higher the number, the worse your offense was performing. WELL, since 1990, 73.9% of schools that had a 17.5 YPP or worse (higher) have had the same or better record from the prior year.

4) Net close losses - In 2004, UT really benefitted from a lot of close victories, which can be partially linked to good luck. Well, in 2005, variance gave us a double dinger, nailing us with -2 close losses. Phil Steele considers our 17-10 win over UAB close, while I don't. Our 16-7 loss to UF was not considered a close loss, though it should have been. THUS, taking his theory and changing it a bit (and NO, not to help my UT argument), it shows us this: In the last 4 seasons, a team which was -2 in close games had a better or the same record 72.9% of the time.

These are all paper tigers, and may not ever play out. However, I find a lot of truth in statistics, so let's hope they don't lie to me this season.

UAB was throwing into the endzone on their last possession to tie the game. I'd consider that a closer game than our loss at Florida.

 

[sjt18]

Please tell me you're kidding.

Nope.

Better QB? Absolutely. I respect Clausen. He was tough and smart but he didn't scare DC's with his arm or feet like his predecessors did.

OTOH, Donte Stallworth was an outstanding WR. Stephens made some huge plays at RB. Witten is probably the best TE to ever play at UT. Banks and Washington if properly disciplined might have re-written Vol WR records.

It is hard to say how many of those players would have been made better by a better QB and OC.

 

[hatvol96]

Nope.

Better QB? Absolutely. I respect Clausen. He was tough and smart but he didn't scare DC's with his arm or feet like his predecessors did.

OTOH, Donte Stallworth was an outstanding WR. Stephens made some huge plays at RB. Witten is probably the best TE to ever play at UT. Banks and Washington if properly disciplined might have re-written Vol WR records.

It is hard to say how many of those players would have been made better by a better QB and OC.

Travis Stephens is to Jamal Lewis as a Vespa is to Ferrari.

 

[05_never_again]

Nope.

Better QB? Absolutely. I respect Clausen. He was tough and smart but he didn't scare DC's with his arm or feet like his predecessors did.

OTOH, Donte Stallworth was an outstanding WR. Stephens made some huge plays at RB. Witten is probably the best TE to ever play at UT. Banks and Washington if properly disciplined might have re-written Vol WR records.

It is hard to say how many of those players would have been made better by a better QB and OC.

i always thought stallworth didn't play to his potential when he was at UT. washington would have been impossible to discipline, especially for the coaching staff at the time; he's T.O. Junior. witten IS the best tight end to ever come through UT; i totally agree with that. he's on his way to a great career with the cowboys.

 

[checkerboard_charly]

Travis Stephens is to Jamal Lewis as a Vespa is to Ferrari.

He did win us Spurriers farewell game in the swamp. Pretty much all by himself.

 

[volfan2024]

UAB was throwing into the endzone on their last possession to tie the game. I'd consider that a closer game than our loss at Florida.

I was there and if I remember correctly, if Tennessee doesn't complete a 3rd down pass late in the game, we could have lost for sure.

 

[Vol423]

Great post Arizona. Consider this about the plays the swung against us. We could have easily been 3-8 last year. Or 8-4. We failed to execute 3 times inside the twenty and that cost us 2 games alone. We will be greatly improved but winning the SEC is a stretch.

Again though, awesome post. You talk ppl down sometimes but you always bring it with stats and great posts. I nominate you for Guru.

Actually, I found the stats quoted for #3 and #4 in his post largely pointless. Those teams that are terrible in the stats of yards per point and close losses post the SAME RECORD or better approximately 73% of the time? Who cares? Is it the SAME or is it better? Breaking down the 73% into the components of SAME record versus better record would make these stats somewhat meaningful. As these stats are currently presented, they lend as much weight to a hypothesis that we'll be below .500 again this year as they lend to a hypothesis that our record will be better than last year. They also don't quantify how much better of a record those teams that improved had in the subsequent year. If UT improves its 2006 record by 1 game over their record in 2005, Fulmer will still get canned at the end of the season.

 

[kptvol]

Travis Stephens is to Jamal Lewis as a Vespa is to Ferrari.

Yeah, but only Travis Stephens became an All-American. Jamal Lewis was more talented, but that doesn't mean Stephens didn't do more than enough to help us win games. I don't blame any of our offensive struggles on him. He really stepped it up in 2001. The only time since we've come close to having that good of a running game was in 2004 with Riggs and Houston. I'd still take Stephens alone over both those guys.

 

[sjt18]

Thus illustrating my point. None of the three TBs could carry Jamal Lewis' shoes.

You can't say that at this point. Any or all of them might turn out to be better than he was.

You could have said the exact same thing about him in his freshman or sophomore years concerning someone who'd played before.

There's not a single player at WR who has shown the ability to be half as productive as Peerless Price.

Productive. That isn't proof that they can't or lack the talent to do so. Whose bright idea was it to play 10 WR's? Meachems? Smiths? Swains?

I won't even embarass the current OL by comparing them to the Cosey Colemans and Chad Cliftons of the world.

You can't... because they haven't played a full college career much less a pro one. Using these kinds of things to talk this team down isn't reasonable.

Again, at this point in their careers, they were just like these guys... talented football players who might succeed or fail.

If you break down the defense, while the talent drain is not as severe, it's still there.

Do what? UT's defense last year was as good as any they've had. They allowed 4 points more per game than the vaunted 98 defense that got more than ample help from the offense. In fact, that offense scored more than twice the points than last year. To hold the opposition to 205 points or 18.6 ppg while your offense couldn't move the ball against air is near miraculous.

They've got excellent talent coming back this year as well. I am not exactly sure where you're finding this supposed talent drain.

UT has had alot of problems but they are NOT deficient in talent and haven't been..

 

[Vol423]

Yeah, but only Travis Stephens became an All-American. Jamal Lewis was more talented, but that doesn't mean Stephens didn't do more than enough to help us win games. I don't blame any of our offensive struggles on him. He really stepped it up in 2001. The only time we've come close to having that good of a running game was in 2004 with Riggs and Houston. I'd still take Stephens alone over both those guys.

I'm not looking at the stats, so I admit that I very well may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that we ran for significantly more yards in 1998 (with Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry and Travis Stephens all toting the rock) than in 2001 or 2004.

 

[hatvol96]

You can't say that at this point. Any or all of them might turn out to be better than he was.

You could have said the exact same thing about him in his freshman or sophomore years concerning someone who'd played before.

Yes, I can. Did you not see Jam's freshmen season? Were you looking the other way when he carried the team at Syracuse and Auburn in '98?

 

[hatvol96]

You can't say that at this point. Any or all of them might turn out to be better than he was.

You could have said the exact same thing about him in his freshman or sophomore years concerning someone who'd played before. Productive. That isn't proof that they can't or lack the talent to do so. Whose bright idea was it to play 10 WR's? Meachems? Smiths? Swains? You can't... because they haven't played a full college career much less a pro one. Using these kinds of things to talk this team down isn't reasonable.

Again, at this point in their careers, they were just like these guys... talented football players who might succeed or fail.
Do what? UT's defense last year was as good as any they've had. They allowed 4 points more per game than the vaunted 98 defense that got more than ample help from the offense. In fact, that offense scored more than twice the points than last year. To hold the opposition to 205 points or 18.6 ppg while your offense couldn't move the ball against air is near miraculous.

They've got excellent talent coming back this year as well. I am not exactly sure where you're finding this supposed talent drain.

UT has had alot of problems but they are NOT deficient in talent and haven't been..

If you think last year's defense is in the same league as the '98 team, I'll let that assertion speak for itself.

 

[Lexvol]

UT's defense last year was as good as any they've had. They allowed 4 points more per game than the vaunted 98 defense that got more than ample help from the offense. In fact, that offense scored more than twice the points than last year. To hold the opposition to 205 points or 18.6 ppg while your offense couldn't move the ball against air is near miraculous.

While I disagree with most of your post, I take real exception to this statement. Last years defense was a good run stopping team, but they allowed Vandy, Bama, and SC to make plays when they needed stops.

Mahelona, Harrylson, and Allen may have seen the field on the 98 team. Not one....not one of last years linebackers would have sniffed playing time on that 98 team.

 

[hatvol96]

While I disagree with most of your post, I take real exception to this statement. Last years defense was a good run stopping team, but they allowed Vandy, Bama, and SC to make plays when they needed stops.

Mahelona, Harrylson, and Allen may have seen the field on the 98 team. Not one....not one of last years linebackers would have sniffed playing time on that 98 team.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[sjt18]

You can't make the comparison. The 98 team had an offense that put up more than twice the number of points they allowed. Last year's defense played all by themselves. If you can't see that then I'll let that speak for itself.

 

[checkerboard_charly]

Actually, I found the stats quoted for #3 and #4 in his post largely pointless. Those teams that are terrible in the stats of yards per point and close losses post the SAME RECORD or better approximately 73% of the time? Who cares? Is it the SAME or is it better? Breaking down the 73% into the components of SAME record versus better record would make these stats somewhat meaningful. As these stats are currently presented, they lend as much weight to a hypothesis that we'll be below .500 again this year as they lend to a hypothesis that our record will be better than last year. They also don't quantify how much better of a record those teams that improved had in the subsequent year. If UT improves its 2006 record by 1 game over their record in 2005, Fulmer will still get canned at the end of the season.

Im sorry but CPF will not get fired unless we lose 10 games. He has done to much for Hamilton to just up and fire him after two off seasons. 3 in a row yes. But 2, i dont see it.

 

[kptvol]

You can't make the comparison. The 98 team had an offense that put up more than twice the number of points they allowed. Last year's defense played all by themselves. If you can't see that then I'll let that speak for itself.

Last year's defense played really well. However, their players were not as talented as those in 1998. That isn't that hard to see.

 

[VolinArizona]

Great post Arizona. Consider this about the plays the swung against us. We could have easily been 3-8 last year. Or 8-4. We failed to execute 3 times inside the twenty and that cost us 2 games alone. We will be greatly improved but winning the SEC is a stretch.

Again though, awesome post. You talk ppl down sometimes but you always bring it with stats and great posts. I nominate you for Guru.

Thanks man, I'm working on talking people down. I'm truly not a condescending person, but sometimes it comes out.

 

[Lexvol]

Im sorry but CPF will not get fired unless we lose 10 games. He has done to much for Hamilton to just up and fire him after two off seasons. 3 in a row yes. But 2, i dont see it.

CPF's time is running shorter than you think.

 

[sjt18]

Yes, I can. Did you not see Jam's freshmen season? Were you looking the other way when he carried the team at Syracuse and Auburn in '98?

Exactly which way were YOU looking last year when Foster was posting those 100+ yard games without alot of help from the passing game? And don't even try to tell me that Martin wasn't about 10 times better than anyone UT could put under center last year.

No one opened up anything for Foster last year but Foster. Ainge stank. Clausen couldn't throw any pass that required better than mediocre arm strength.

 

[Vol423]

Im sorry but CPF will not get fired unless we lose 10 games. He has done to much for Hamilton to just up and fire him after two off seasons. 3 in a row yes. But 2, i dont see it.

That's classic! Fulmer would be lucky if her were allowed to finish out the season as head coach once we lost 8 games.

 

[OWB]

Exactly which way were YOU looking last year when Foster was posting those 100+ yard games without alot of help from the passing game? And don't even try to tell me that Martin wasn't about 10 times better than anyone UT could put under center last year.

No one opened up anything for Foster last year but Foster. Ainge stank. Clausen couldn't throw any pass that required better than mediocre arm strength.

Foster still thanked his line after all of the games too..:thumbsup:

 

[sjt18]

While I disagree with most of your post, I take real exception to this statement. Last years defense was a good run stopping team, but they allowed Vandy, Bama, and SC to make plays when they needed stops.

Mahelona, Harrylson, and Allen may have seen the field on the 98 team. Not one....not one of last years linebackers would have sniffed playing time on that 98 team.

Other than subjective comparisons, you can't compare those two defenses. One had an offense that didn't put them in a bind all the time. The other didn't.

 

[hatvol96]

Exactly which way were YOU looking last year when Foster was posting those 100+ yard games without alot of help from the passing game? And don't even try to tell me that Martin wasn't about 10 times better than anyone UT could put under center last year.

No one opened up anything for Foster last year but Foster. Ainge stank. Clausen couldn't throw any pass that required better than mediocre arm strength.

You mean the 100 yard games against the likes of Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Memphis, and a pathetic Notre Dame defense? How many yards did he post against UGA and Alabama? Arian Foster is a plowhorse. Jam is a thoroughbred. It's that simple.

 

[Vol423]

Exactly which way were YOU looking last year when Foster was posting those 100+ yard games without alot of help from the passing game? And don't even try to tell me that Martin wasn't about 10 times better than anyone UT could put under center last year.

No one opened up anything for Foster last year but Foster. Ainge stank. Clausen couldn't throw any pass that required better than mediocre arm strength.

Foster wasn't lighting up top quality defenses in those games. I sincerely hope that Foster turns out to be the real deal, but in order to be considered the real deal, he has to be spectacular against the likes of Florida, Georgia, Auburn and LSU, not Vanderbilt, Memphis and Kentucky.