If he leaves, there will be a significant amount of money involved.
I would have to think that money and possibility for success are at least on equal footing (and probably necessarily dependent) when it comes to job consideration for coaches.
I could live without beating Urban Meyer. I want to beat Florida more than I want to beat their coach.
I still think ND has a shot at Urbs if they really want him. I know you guys have pointed out their hiring record, but the facts of the matter are these: ND has money, a large, wealthy fanbase, unrivaled national exposure (The Irish, when at the top, will get more run than any other program out there. Period) including their own TV network, the easiest possible path to a BCS game in D-I, and a national recruiting pool limited only by the talents of your recruiters.
The only thing limiting them is the powers that be pulling their heads out of their rear ends and making a good hire. ND is a sleeping giant.