Will there be football in 2020?

#226
#226
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
My data was plagiarized from the Tennessee Department of Health website. Your comments are true in fact but superficial in reality.

I understand younger people are less likely to become ill (you would not believe how well I understand that). I also understand that an asymptomatic person who is infected with this, or virtually any virus, is contagious to others. I don't understand your comfort level with the fact that 98% are asymptomatic.

Would you be comfortable in a room of 100 COVID-19 patients 98% of whom are asymptomatic?
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By September most of those people will have probably already had it by then.

I mean look at the antibody test results. Way more people have had it.

And do you really trust the numbers that they say? The numbers cannot be 100 percent accurate. You dont even have to test positive for covid to be diagnosed with it. If you die and have tested positive for the virus then you die from the virus. Hit by a bus and have covid in your system? Death by covid 19.

Who knows what the actual numbers are.

Elon Musk is on my side and he's one of the smartest people in the world :)
 
#227
#227
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
My data was plagiarized from the Tennessee Department of Health website. Your comments are true in fact but superficial in reality.

I understand younger people are less likely to become ill (you would not believe how well I understand that). I also understand that an asymptomatic person who is infected with this, or virtually any virus, is contagious to others. I don't understand your comfort level with the fact that 98% are asymptomatic.

Would you be comfortable in a room of 100 COVID-19 patients 98% of whom are asymptomatic?
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How big is the room?

Statistically, I would have almost no chance of being in a room with that volume of asymptomatic positive cases; so I'm not comfortable with an answer to that without further details to make a decision. I might be comfortable with it based on room size and other details, however.

You are creating statistical abnormalities to prove a poor point.
 
#228
#228
SmokyRiverDog said:
Cool. Those are Trousdale County numbers. We were discussing the prison in Trousdale County. My numbers are accurate as of two days ago for the prison in Hartsville/Trousdale County. Again, you utilize incorrect information relative to the discussion. You're sneaky.
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My numbers are not incorrect. Most Trousdale County cases (virtually) are from the prison.
 
#229
#229
PlanetVolunteer said:
By September most of those people will have probably already had it by then.

I mean look at the antibody test results. Way more people have had it.

And do you really trust the numbers that they say? The numbers cannot be 100 percent accurate. You dont even have to test positive for covid to be diagnosed with it. If you die and have tested positive for the virus then you die from the virus. Hit by a bus and have covid in your system? Death by covid 19.

Who knows what the actual numbers are.

Elon Musk is on my side and he's one of the smartest people in the world :)
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Most of the current antibody tests do not distinguish between COVID-19 and the other 6 coronavirus strains that are unrelated and cause the common cold.

Elon Musk is so smart.
 
#230
#230
SmokyRiverDog said:
How big is the room?

Statistically, I would have almost no chance of being in a room with that volume of asymptomatic positive cases; so I'm not comfortable with an answer to that without further details to make a decision. I might be comfortable with it based on room size and other details, however.

You are creating statistical abnormalities to prove a poor point.
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I am not creating anything
 
#235
#235
SmokyRiverDog said:
How big is the room?

Statistically, I would have almost no chance of being in a room with that volume of asymptomatic positive cases; so I'm not comfortable with an answer to that without further details to make a decision. I might be comfortable with it based on room size and other details, however.

You are creating statistical abnormalities to prove a poor point.
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Let's talk more statistics.

COVID-19 has been in the US for about 100 days.
75,000 (give or take depending on how many of those were run over by a bus) have died.
75,000 deaths divided by 100 days equals 750 deaths per day (trust me on this one).
A passenger airline carries about 250 people (don't trust me on this one, it is a guess).

Now the hard part...

If 3 jet airlines crashed every day, 7 days per week, would you fly? The numbers are identical.
 
#236
#236
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
Prison numbers are included in the county reporting.
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We are not talking about the county. Those numbers change the data and percentages when tallied with the prison numbers. The prison numbers are in the county numbers. The county numbers are not in the prison numbers. We are talking about the prison. Try to keep up.
 
#237
#237
Doctors can't even agree, I don't trust folks agendas these days. Let the people decide where it is safe for them to go. They cannot keep legislating where the public can and cannot go, they will eventually lose in court if enough petition it. For all the folks that swoon over polls they had one out that 4 in 10 would not go to the games if they could right now. Well if they believe in their great polls so much that should give plenty of room for so called social distancing. Truth is they know their polls are lies and they really think there will be plenty of fans. Friends of mine here are already off social distancing, I wash my hands more than ever and intend to keep the habit as it is a great habit to have. But if I see a friend now we high five or shake, most folks I talk too say besides common sense they are over this crap. No elbow bumps, either shake hands high five or move on. I don't go looking for strangers hands to shake but I am done worrying about distance and there are many more like me. At this point Americans are in charge like it or not. If there isn't football there will be plenty of protest and plenty of people not practicing social distancing. Just sayin, pick your poison because Americans will be irate come fall if they keep trying to hold us back. God Bless and GBO!!!!!
 
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#238
#238
66volfan said:
I have zero interest in it either way. Believe what you want. Those numbers are misleading though. When complied by the CDC they are derived from estimated cases and a math formula. The Covid-19 deaths are an actual head count. After it is all said and done will be the only time we’ll get an accurate analysis of how lethal it actually is.
If you believe those flu numbers though, that’s 35,000 over a whole flu season with 38 million cases. Covid is around 70,000 in a couple months with less than 2 million cases.
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Covid 19 death rate is inflated lol.
 
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#239
#239
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
Let's talk more statistics.

COVID-19 has been in the US for about 100 days.
75,000 (give or take depending on how many of those were run over by a bus) have died.
75,000 deaths divided by 100 days equals 750 deaths per day (trust me on this one).
A passenger airline carries about 250 people (don't trust me on this one, it is a guess).

Now the hard part...

If 3 jet airlines crashed every day, 7 days per week, would you fly? The numbers are identical.
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Your numbers are incorrect all the way around, actual and/or likely for each category.

Again, your scenario is non-sensical because people die every day in similar numbers to this current period. There is no anomaly in death numbers overall. Your scenario is an anomaly situation.
 
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#240
#240
SmokyRiverDog said:
We are not talking about the county. Those numbers change the data and percentages when tallied with the prison numbers. The prison numbers are in the county numbers. The county numbers are not in the prison numbers. We are talking about the prison. Try to keep up.
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I am trying to keep up. I have no idea what our argument is.
 
#241
#241
SmokyRiverDog said:
Your numbers are incorrect all the way around, actual and/or likely for each category.

Again, your scenario is non-sensical because people die every day in similar numbers to this current period. There is no anomaly in death numbers overall. Your scenario is an anomaly situation.
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Your's is a good example of the fact that one can't argue with a point that is not founded in logic.
 
#242
#242
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
That is because there are vaccines and treatments that are effective for flu, pneumonia, etc. Not so for COVID-19. Also, this strain of Coronavirus is 30 or more times more contagious than flu. For context, see Trousdale prison situation.
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Yes, but how many of those in that facility have symptoms that would rise to the level of them "being sick" by the normal definition? I think very very few have any symptoms. So does it matter how contagious it is if symptoms only materialize in a fraction of the infections? In fact, wouldn't that suggest the fastest way to build some level of herd immunity is to turn everyone loose?
 
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#243
#243
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
That is because there are vaccines and treatments that are effective for flu, pneumonia, etc. Not so for COVID-19. Also, this strain of Coronavirus is 30 or more times more contagious than flu. For context, see Trousdale prison situation.
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Obviously it is more contagious because it “lingers” longer. However, a study shows the highest majority of individuals who have been diagnosed with covid-19 were sheltering in place and practicing social distancing. So what’s your argument there?

Also, without RNA (Antibody) testing we won’t even know who had already had this and built up immunities. The average human suffers no major symptoms from covid-19.

Also, I said immunologist- I was mistaken. I should have said a doctor who has been taking care of coronavirus patients. The world can’t remain shutdown and we as a society cannot remain afraid. This virus is nothing compared to other deadlier viruses and we never shut down for those.
 
#244
#244
I have to wonder, what percent do you believe will have been infected by late August? At some point the majority of people cant spread it or become sick from it. So you arent creating an atmosphere of 100,000 potential victims.

I am obviously going with the assumption you build a resistance once infected.
 
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#245
#245
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
*I'm getting that from published data
*No, your odds do not go down after 60
*Neither have I
*New York's population density is about 350 people per acre
*Neyland Stadium's population density during a home football game is about 35,000 people per acre

I am not a bureaucrat. I do not have a guaranteed job, only one I worked to put in place for myself and whose revenue has been cut in half compared to what I made the same period last year. I do not have a guaranteed pension.

I have made no decisions that affect you.
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1. What source? No one else seems to have found age 40 as the start of the risk group.
* Then why state "40-60" as the range and not say over 40? Adding an upper range clouds the statistic and implies the risk drops after 60. Is 40 the true floor then or is it lower?
c. I didn't say you were a bureaucrat or had a guaranteed pension.
 
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#246
#246
dobre_shunka said:
40-60? Where are you getting that? So once you pass 60, your odds go down? Most reports I have seen have over 60 or 65 as the start of the risk group based on age and I haven't seen a single one stating after 60 your risk drops. Based on available data, do you know what one of the biggest risks is ? Being in New York, over a third of confirmed US infections are in NY.

Regardless, why do you or some bureaucrat with a guaranteed job and pension get to decide what I can do and when I can go back to work?
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This virus, while real and deadly, has been used by many politicians as an opportunity to instill so much fear in the American people that they begin to buy into the idea of 'the government knows what's best for me.'
 
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#248
#248
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
Most of the current antibody tests do not distinguish between COVID-19 and the other 6 coronavirus strains that are unrelated and cause the common cold.

Elon Musk is so smart.
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Smarter than us.

Seems like this coronavirus mostly causes the common cold.

The anti body tests are no more faulty than the way we keep the statistics for covid 19. Probably less so, as scientists in LA, NY, Germany, Sweden and Italy all use antibody tests to predict the true number of cases.

I agree with your sentiment of wanting to get a more accurate anti-body tests.

Before that I want more accurate data on how many people actually have covid-19 and who was actually killed by it.

Should be no assumptions. They should know from a test not just symptoms. If you die from it they need to cite what underlying health conditions they had if any. Toss out the superficial data so we can have a better picture of this.
 
#249
#249
vol9799 said:
Yes, but how many of those in that facility have symptoms that would rise to the level of them "being sick" by the normal definition? I think very very few have any symptoms. So does it matter how contagious it is if symptoms only materialize in a fraction of the infections? In fact, wouldn't that suggest the fastest way to build some level of herd immunity is to turn everyone loose?
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You don't have to be sick to pass it around, only infected. You don't want to be around an asymptomatic infected person anymore than you want to be around an infected sick person who is coughing all over the place with a fever.

If only 2% of the American population gets sick, 250,000 die.
 
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#250
#250
OrangeSoddyDaisy said:
I am trying to keep up. I have no idea what our argument is.
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I'm really not trying to argue with you. You seem "pretty cool". I was unclear on your original point from the post about ease of contagion. You mentioned Trousdale prison. I actually was verifying in giving you the numbers that it was highly contagious. I was then wondering if you were trying to further comment on "deadlineess" or danger of the virus. That part was unclear to me. I was then further stating those numbers to show that even though it was contagious, it had almost no effect on a huge prison population in confined spaces. I think that is where we diverged on the conversation. From there, I think we disagree on what is good data and a good comparison scenario. Other than that, I just wondered who cares that much about Trousdale County and why we chose that hole in the wall to argue.
 
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