Wow, Paul Krugman showing why he got that Nobel Prize in Economics

#107
#107
Hog, you'll like this one.

Had a frat brother who had been accepted into the Air Force Academy. When he gets to plebe summer they decide he is not aggressive enough to be an effective decision maker. The academies had these prep schools they could send a cadet/midshipman to so as to remedy deficiencies in applicants they wanted. I had always thought they were for kids who had high IQs but may have come from weak high schools and needed to catch up academically. Well it seems they also had psychological "enhancement" programs to turn an unaggressive personality into an aggressive one.

So they sent him to that program. Well it worked so well that when he came back a year later for plebe summer he was kicked out because he couldn't submit to authority.

He was edgy when I met him. We used to keep an eye on him when he would start to get worked up but it always stopped at the verbal level.

But he wasn't our weirdest guy. A couple of years later we pledged a Marine vet from Vietnam who had been loaned out to the CIA to kill communist guerrillas in Mindanao. Now that was edgy. He scared us so bad we were too scared to blackball him.
 
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#110
#110
At this point, I agree with Krugman (to an extent).

Krugman's Accounting Of The National Debt Is Jailworthy | ZeroHedge

Krugman insists that taming the “federal debt should be well down the list” of government “priorities” after “climate change” and “child poverty” because debt projections have become “much less dire” over the past decade or so. In reality, the debt is far higher than projected, and Krugman’s own words prove it.
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May as well just default.
 
#111
#111
Taibbi: According To Pundits, "Ignorance" Makes Americans Give "Wrong" Answers To Economic Confidence Poll

Paul Krugman of the New York Times on America’s “belief” problem when it comes to the economy:

Biden is not, in fact, presiding over a bad economy. On the contrary, the economic news has been remarkably good, and history helps explain why. Nonetheless, many Americans tell pollsters that the economy is bad. Why? I don’t think we really know… Many voters have demonstrably false views about the current economy — believing, in particular, that unemployment, which is near a 50-year low, is actually near a 50-year high.
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#112
#112
#114
#114
BS Krugman.

Tax. collections totaled $4.4 trillion in FY 2023, down $455 billion, or 9 percent, from last year's record haul of $4.9 trillion. The largest decline was for individual income tax.Oct 12, 2023
 
#115
#115
Orangeburst said:
BS Krugman.

Tax. collections totaled $4.4 trillion in FY 2023, down $455 billion, or 9 percent, from last year's record haul of $4.9 trillion. The largest decline was for individual income tax.Oct 12, 2023
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That's a weird way to measure the strength of the economy. Why not the standard gdp? 9% down from the record is supposed to be bad?
 
#116
#116
Vol8188 said:
Don’t confuse government spending with growth
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I would never. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Trump inherited a growing economy and by year 2 growth was based on government spending. Nobody cared that it was fake. Like Krugman says, people believe what they want to believe, as usual.
 
#117
#117
n_huffhines said:
Krugman is not wrong on this. Trump's economy was strong only because people believed it. Real gdp growth this past quarter was 4.9% and you would never hear the end of how wonderful that is if it were Trump's economy.
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Everybody got paid to stay home under Trump. Of course it seemed like the economy was great.
 
#120
#120
n_huffhines said:
Real gdp is adjusted for inflation.
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Didn't they change the formula for inflation? Using the original formula I believe i read that inflation was closer to 14.7%...and seems to track better with what people are feeling. Given credit card debt increasing etc..people work ou g 2 jobs just to make ends meet. Unemployment better be at a all time low. But what is work force participation??
 
#122
#122
C-south said:
So you’re saying gdp is worthless when determining the actual state of the economy.
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What did I say that would indicate that?

I think it's overrated tbh, but it's most used metric and nobody here was naysaying GDP when it was Trump's fake economy.
 
#123
#123
whodeycin85 said:
Didn't they change the formula for inflation? Using the original formula I believe i read that inflation was closer to 14.7%...and seems to track better with what people are feeling. Given credit card debt increasing etc..people work ou g 2 jobs just to make ends meet. Unemployment better be at a all time low. But what is work force participation??
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It's undergone numerous changes over the decades. They learn more about the economy and refine the calculation. You're probably talking about the recent change to CPI based on the idea there was bias in reliance on the calculation. You can't just consider price changes. Quality changes can be the reason for price changes. So the calculation now accounts for quality. I would need to see a link on that 14.57% figure. Are you saying when it was at 8% or now that it's 3ish %? 8% to 14% is a big variance, and that's hard to believe but not saying it isn't right. It seems like that would mean quality is up significantly in their calculation.
 
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#124
#124
n_huffhines said:
It's undergone numerous changes over the decades. They learn more about the economy and refine the calculation. You're probably talking about the recent change to CPI based on the idea there was bias in reliance on the calculation. You can't just consider price changes. Quality changes can be the reason for price changes. So the calculation now accounts for quality. I would need to see a link on that 14.57% figure. Are you saying when it was at 8% or now that it's 3ish %? 8% to 14% is a big variance, and that's hard to believe but not saying it isn't right.
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They are saying it's now at 8%..here the link...honestly I look at cost of living as an indicator of economic strength..cost of living increases are natural as the quality goes up....but the same products that cost 200% not are not 200% in
quality...most are not improved at all..this not something I'm versed in...but I'm trying to learn

Alternate Inflation Charts

www.shadowstats.com www.shadowstats.com
 
#125
#125
BTW, this was an interesting interview with a guy who was the lone voice in the wilderness when everybody else was guaranteeing recession in 12 months over a year ago. He's now on the more pessimistic side.

One interesting thing he said was we were more recession proof than conventional wisdom thought because we are a service economy and a huge component of doomsday predictions was supply chain issues, which are more crippling to a manufacturing economy.

 
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