Year Two: win a bowl game or go sit in the hot seat

#51
#51
CountVolcula said:
Agreed that his wasn't on par with Jones
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At least you see the point I'm making and what other people in this thread are pointing out.

In YEAR TWO: 5-7 with the 30th ranked recruiting class is far worse than 5-7 with the 8th ranked recruiting class.
 
#52
#52
Exfix said:
I said nothing about perceived talent levels based on star ratings. Although that does correlate with wins, I am speaking strictly about whether UT will be the Vegas favorite. I don't care about anyone else's opinion, just the opinion of those who put actual $ on the games. 5.5 wins is the over/under whether you like it or not.
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Anyone betting right now is looking for a big payday. The lines will move until the season starts and there's something tangible to bet on.

If you have it... what was Auburn's over/under this time last year? Mizzou's? How about UF's?

Mizzou lost a ton of production from a team that wasn't as good as their record last year. UT, UGA, and UF were all missing critical players when they lost to MU. It isn't just perceived. Take a look at their roster.
 
#53
#53
OrangeSummit said:
vegas has UT at 4.5 wins. people whom make their living doing this and are pretty good at it, say 4.5. i hate to say it but 5-7 again, i hope whatever and 0 but i don't think that's going to be the case.
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winking-george.jpg
 
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#54
#54
"we can spend more "dinero" by paying him and another coach that we would have to hire at the same time so we can start all over and go through the same thing for two more years until that coach is on the hot seat. "

Sarcasm noted. You bring up a good point. UTAD has less than $1m in the bank right now. Ridiculously low for a business of this size.
 
#55
#55
thetennlegend said:
We are 0 and 2 against mizzou since they joined they league. We will not be favored to beat them period it's possible yes but would still be an upset.
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Favorites and underdogs in CFB are not determined by what happened in previous years. I suspect UT will not be an underdog by that point in the season nor will it be an upset to anyone who has looked at what MU lost from their roster. DBG on top of their other losses was huge.
 
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#56
#56
Exfix said:
I said nothing about perceived talent levels based on star ratings. Although that does correlate with wins, I am speaking strictly about whether UT will be the Vegas favorite. I don't care about anyone else's opinion, just the opinion of those who put actual $ on the games. 5.5 wins is the over/under whether you like it or not.
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We should be favored in the Utah State, Arkansas State, Florida, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt games.

Of those teams, Florida arguably does have a more talented roster, but any talent disparity would be more than offset by better coaching and home field advantage. The only road game we need to win this year to get to a bowl game is Vanderbilt, which should be reeling from losing Franklin.
 
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#57
#57
TruUT24 said:
Yeah let's put him on the hot seat after two years so we can spend more "dinero" by paying him and another coach that we would have to hire at the same time so we can start all over and go through the same thing for two more years until that coach is on the hot seat. Sit back and relax and let it all work out.
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<sarcasm> Well, I guess you are right. Empty seats and program that continues to wallow in mediocrity is EXACTLY what we want to "sit back", "relax", and let "work out".

Were still paying enough coaches that are no longer with the school because everyone thinks a new hire is going to step in and make us the best team ever in the first two years
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If that's the worry... then why did UT get rid of Dooley? I mean shouldn't we have just sat back, relaxed, and let it work out? I mean wasn't he just fired for failing to make UT the "best team ever" in 3 years? Surely 4, 5, 6,.... 10 years would have been all it took for him to turn the corner, right?

FWIW, I wasn't aware that winning 6-8 games was making a team the "best ever". Who in fact said anything about him making UT the best team ever in 2 years? No one, right?
 
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#58
#58
sjt18 said:
So according to you, a "better" coach being paid more should get more time than the coach just fired for failing to win? Usually when you spend more money to "upgrade" a hire... the standard does not GO DOWN.

The irrational hatred against Dooley for simply not being good enough to fix the problems he inherited aside... if Jones W/L record is equal to or worse than Dooley's after 3 years then there is absolutely no question that his future with UT should be looked at.
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How is it irrational to judge the previous coach on his inability to do the very job he was hired for?
 
#59
#59
What I've learned in my years here is that most posters don't have standards, but rather a sliding scale, by which no coach can ever really fail, at least until they are about to actually be fired. Remember, the vast majority on here wanted Dooley back after he lost to Kentucky. So, discussions about expectations and hot seats here are rather futile, since, even if Jones were on the hot seat, most would refuse to admit it anyway.

For instance, last year, right before the Vanderbilt game, I asked if we lost the game and missed a bowl, if folks would still say the coaches did a good job for the season. 57% said "No." But, just a couple weeks afterwards I asked if they thought Butch did a good job coaching for the season, over 76% said "Yes!". Talk about a sliding scale! This is why UT is a dream job. Where else can a coach make over 3 million a year, where the fans won't get upset when they fail, but will change their definition of "good" instead?

So, given fans like that (and given that we have an athletic director who hasn't really shown a great desire to produce a winner), Butch could probably go winless this year and many would find ways to excuse it.

I think he'll probably get 4 years regardless. But, if he doesn't pull out a winning season this year, I don't think recruiting will hold up to the level he'll need to overcome coaching deficiencies and then I'd doubt he would be able to ever win here at any significant level.
 
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#62
#62
AboveAllNations said:
We should be favored in the Utah State, Arkansas State, Florida, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt games.

Of those teams, Florida arguably does have a more talented roster, but any talent disparity would be more than offset by better coaching and home field advantage. The only road game we need to win this year to get to a bowl game is Vanderbilt, which should be reeling from losing Franklin.
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To be honest, I doubt UT will be favored vs UF. In all likelihood, UT will take a tough loss at OU and a road trip to UGA. UF will come off a by week after a likely loss to Bama on the road. I would more or less expect UF to lose to Bama by less than 20 and the same for UT vs UGA on the road. But UT will likely be 2-2 while UF is 3-1. UT will have a good shot at a win but I doubt they'll be favored coming in without an upset or unexpectedly close games vs UGA and OU.
 
#64
#64
Exfix said:
Correct. 5 Dimes has TN as 5.5 wins for the over/under. They set those early lines based on the perception that homers for those teams will pump up the over. For now, TN will not only have to win all games in which they will likely be the favorite, they will also have to pull an upset as defined by Vegas to make a bowl. Not a minor task with this schedule.
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It isn't just homers who bet the over. The majority of bettors are actually pretty unsophisticated. I have seen some numbers to suggest that approaching 60% of all home favorites are bet on, and like 65% of all away favorites are bet on. In fact, it would appear that Vegas plays to this very real psychology when creating the spread. It isn't just as simple as creating a line that forces 50% of bets on either side, even though that guarantees the books about 4.5% profit.
 
#65
#65
daj2576 said:
How is it irrational to judge the previous coach on his inability to do the very job he was hired for?
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Read it again. I never said it was irrational to "judge". I said it was irrational to personalize it and "hate" as if Dooley did it just to hurt the feelings of Vol fans.

Dooley was held to a standard. It was an appropriate standard and the exact same one I think Jones should be held to.

Dooley didn't improve in year 2 but many including the two of us I believe gave him a bit of a pass due to the loss of Hunter. We gave him a mulligan for UK. But that DID put him on a hot seat entering year 3... and should have. Jones has already had his mulligan. He needs to produce like a coach capable of turning a program around and not just on signing day.
 
#66
#66
allsgood21 said:
Go to a bowl game but if not, I don't think he can be on the hot seat. If we don't get to a bowl by 2015... Then I would reevaluate Butch Jones
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This. Plus, we gave Dooley 3... I mean, come on ppl. 3 years.

If he has another top 10 recruiting class then all excuses are out the window for 2015. Which is when I truely expect things to start being awesome again.
 
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#67
#67
Exfix said:
Correct. 5 Dimes has TN as 5.5 wins for the over/under. They set those early lines based on the perception that homers for those teams will pump up the over. For now, TN will not only have to win all games in which they will likely be the favorite, they will also have to pull an upset as defined by Vegas to make a bowl. Not a minor task with this schedule.
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Here's the thing that kills me about people citing Vegas or betting lines as some excuse for the coaches...you do realize that those lines also take into account the coaching, right? Those lines don't simply reflect the quality of the competition or the talent of the team, they also reflect what the odds makers think of our coaches' abilities. We're only favored to 5 games or so, partially because Butch Jones hasn't demonstrated that he can win regularly at this level of competition. The lines don't really work as an excuse, they are simply a reflection of how poorly we did last season in all aspects, talent and coaching.

We should hope that our coaches can prove them wrong, not expect them to continue to do the bare minimum and continue to live up to mediocre expectations. Otherwise, it's a good bet that we will stay mediocre along with the projections.
 
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#68
#68
Eddie Vol Halen said:
With the opinion circulating that Butch is overpaid, I think it is time to put down the metric for which Year Two will be judged.

Getting to a bowl game is an absolute minimum. Butch is making big boy dinero and he left wins on the field last year. We can forgive (because look who coached them the year before) but there are six no-brainer wins on our schedule and this team is already more than half his.

With the talent he has brought in, an extra month of practice, and we should absolutely handle any low tier bowl opponent. A 6 - 7 year and I think the heat should be on (and rightly so).

I like Butch, and I like almost everything he has done to date in Orange. At the end of the day though, Ws are the only coin of the realm. I think winning a bowl game is a successful Year Two. *

* (anything above 7-wins and the season is a big success as well, bowl game not included)
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i agree he has to get to a bowl game this year and show he can coach. if not the stands will reflect it and he will be on the hot seat. i believe without a bowl game this year hart will be on the firing block as well.
 
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#69
#69
itouchedthe_bUTch said:
Butch will be around for awhile. He's done more for this program than Kiffin and Dooley in only one season.
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That isn't a valid standard. Dooley won 16 games in 3 years. Kiffin won 7. Together they avg'd 5.75 wins per season. To match that, Jones only has to win 6 games per year going forward. Is that what we've come to? Where averaging anything over 6 wins per year is good enough?
 
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#70
#70
Jake Tate said:
This. Plus, we gave Dooley 3... I mean, come on ppl. 3 years.

If he has another top 10 recruiting class then all excuses are out the window for 2015. Which is when I truely expect things to start being awesome again.
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If he wins 5 or less this year... don't expect another top 10 recruiting class. Top 25 will be questionable.
 
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#71
#71
oregonvol said:
Here's the thing that kills me about people citing Vegas or betting lines as some excuse for the coaches...you do realize that those lines also take into account the coaching, right? Those lines don't simply reflect the quality of the competition or the talent of the team, they also reflect what the odds makers think of our coaches' abilities. We're only favored to 5 games or so, partially because Butch Jones hasn't demonstrated that he can win regularly at this level of competition. The lines don't really work as an excuse, they are simply a reflection of how poorly we did last season in all aspects, talent and coaching.
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Oh snap!!
 
#72
#72
champyvol said:
i agree he has to get to a bowl game this year and show he can coach. if not the stands will reflect it and he will be on the hot seat. i believe without a bowl game this year hart will be on the firing block as well.
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The last point is a very good one. Obviously, if Butch doesn't work out, you can't possibly let Hart hire your next head coach. So, if anyone in charge has any sense (a big if), Hart will be on the hot seat before Jones.
 
#73
#73
2014 is not the year Butch will be on the hot seat considering the state of the program when he arrived. The rebuilding job at Tennessee was considered by many coaches and only Butch Jones wanted to undertake this monumental task. 2015 is when Butch will truly be under the microscope with expectations running very high. This 2014 season should be considered a success if Butch can somehow win 6 games and get to a bowl game, but winning 6 games with an un-experienced offensive and defensive line will take some great coaching and some luck.
 
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#75
#75
allsgood21 said:
Go to a bowl game but if not, I don't think he can be on the hot seat. If we don't get to a bowl by 2015... Then I would reevaluate Butch Jones
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Just get to a bowl game? Really? The guy will have had 3 years to recruit and develop talent, the '15 schedule lightens up a little. OU will be at home. The other OOC games will be UAB, No Texas, and a team to be named later. UT will drop Ole Miss and pick up Arkansas.

And you only expect 6 wins in year three? THAT kind of thinking is what gets a program a permanent place as irrelevant.
 
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