Year Two: win a bowl game or go sit in the hot seat

[Spartacavolus]

ridiculous to say UT wasn't favored more against the toughest schedule in the Country due to Butch, rather than due to rebuilding from crap in the first year with with no nfl players in skill and speed positions.
Whatever makes you feel better though.

 

[TucsonVol]

With the opinion circulating that Butch is overpaid, I think it is time to put down the metric for which Year Two will be judged.

Getting to a bowl game is an absolute minimum. Butch is making big boy dinero and he left wins on the field last year. We can forgive (because look who coached them the year before) but there are six no-brainer wins on our schedule and this team is already more than half his.

With the talent he has brought in, an extra month of practice, and we should absolutely handle any low tier bowl opponent. A 6 - 7 year and I think the heat should be on (and rightly so).



I like Butch, and I like almost everything he has done to date in Orange. At the end of the day though, Ws are the only coin of the realm. I think winning a bowl game is a successful Year Two. *

* (anything above 7-wins and the season is a big success as well, bowl game not included)

Well said!!!!

 

[Chilmonty]

ridiculous to say UT wasn't favored more against the toughest schedule in the Country due to Butch, rather than due to rebuilding from crap in the first year with with no nfl players in skill and speed positions.
Whatever makes you feel better though.

True this! Other than EB, I can't remember too many DB's drafted lately.
I can remember alot of DB's getting burned though! :banghead2:


.

 

[TucsonVol]

He gets at least four years for the simple reason Dooley got three...

Three at the most!

 

[skoalbeans]

With the opinion circulating that Butch is overpaid, I think it is time to put down the metric for which Year Two will be judged.

Getting to a bowl game is an absolute minimum. Butch is making big boy dinero and he left wins on the field last year. We can forgive (because look who coached them the year before) but there are six no-brainer wins on our schedule and this team is already more than half his.

With the talent he has brought in, an extra month of practice, and we should absolutely handle any low tier bowl opponent. A 6 - 7 year and I think the heat should be on (and rightly so).

I like Butch, and I like almost everything he has done to date in Orange. At the end of the day though, Ws are the only coin of the realm. I think winning a bowl game is a successful Year Two. *

* (anything above 7-wins and the season is a big success as well, bowl game not included)

1. HE didn't leave any wins on the field last year. Regardless of what is said, the players either outplay or get outplayed, period.
2. He has brought more to this program thus far than any of the previous coaches we've had (including fulmer) back to the majors era.
3. Give him time for goodness sake. We are not there yet so quit having such high expectations. Those wins you speak of as being no-brainers are actually not cupcakes. Maybe they were to the late 90's vols, but we are not them. (Yet)
4. Tennessee recruits itself. Period. Having a bad coach makes or breaks you with a few but having a good one does the same. That said, the man beat USC jr, and was a PLAYER mistake (which happens often to all teams) away from defeating the dogs. To do that with the lack of talent, speed, depth, etc...is say he knows what he's doing.
5. The hot seat talk shouldn't be relevant until year 4 results are available. In any college coaching situation. Fact.
6. Stability! Please make it stop and get on board 100% so we can right the ship. He will be here for a long time if we let him. He's already making leaps and bounds talent wise. Let's get behind him and the big orange and push this thing to the top. GO VOLS!

 

[TucsonVol]

Butch is doing fine, and if he doesn't get to a bowl game this year, he won't be on the hot seat.

We play an incredibly tough schedule.

What he should be judged on at this point is recruiting classes, and he's a doing marvelous job there.

That is ridiculous!!!! He has to be judged on other things than recruiting!!! How about coaching for starters!!

 

[Exfix]

It isn't just homers who bet the over. The majority of bettors are actually pretty unsophisticated. I have seen some numbers to suggest that approaching 60% of all home favorites are bet on, and like 65% of all away favorites are bet on. In fact, it would appear that Vegas plays to this very real psychology when creating the spread. It isn't just as simple as creating a line that forces 50% of bets on either side, even though that guarantees the books about 4.5% profit.

Also, you notice that the teams 5 Dimes released are all high major, high profile (mostly) programs. Plays to the psychology of "there is no way X team will lose that many."

 

[oregonvol]

Just get to a bowl game? Really? The guy will have had 3 years to recruit and develop talent, the '15 schedule lightens up a little. OU will be at home. The other OOC games will be UAB, No Texas, and a team to be named later. UT will drop Ole Miss and pick up Arkansas.

And you only expect 6 wins in year three? THAT kind of thinking is what gets a program a permanent place as irrelevant.

Yep, and that's exactly where we are. Coincidence?

We're in this mess because people didn't get upset when we hired a proven loser (Florida hired Ron Zook and their fans put up billboards calling for his firing). We're in this mess because folks lowered the expectations so low for that guy, that they awarded him a huge contract extension after a mediocre first season. We're in this mess because, even though he proved his woeful incompetence by losing to Kentucky, most folks thought he ought to get a 3rd year anyway.

And now, once again, we have fans who think we should wait until year 3 to expect even a .500 finish. We have fans who think that we should pay a guy 3 million a year to do an average job, to simply live up to mediocre expectations set by Vegas (which are mediocre because of how badly he and the team did the previous year), to win 4 games a year against FBS competition.

It's no wonder we've become what Ole Miss used to be. But, it's been miserable watching it happen.

 

[fade route]

That isn't a valid standard. Dooley won 16 games in 3 years. Kiffin won 7. Together they avg'd 5.75 wins per season. To match that, Jones only has to win 6 games per year going forward. Is that what we've come to? Where averaging anything over 6 wins per year is good enough?

Sjt18, I know we've gone back and forth a lot, but you're a thoughtful guy and you do your homework so this is an honest question. If a coach is doing all the right things off the field, how long do you give him to stock the roster full of his guys and to fully implement his system on the field? I guess what I'm asking you is how long til you really find out if a guy can coach on this level in this conference?

 

[Majorvol23]

That is ridiculous!!!! He has to be judged on other things than recruiting!!! How about coaching for starters!!

i think that goes without saying

 

[govols105]

It's the same excuse every year, no depth, poor coaching, blah, blah, blah, fix it and get the right results or get out and shut it down. it's what happens in the real world. ain't got no time for dat!

 

[Spartacavolus]

True this! Other than EB, I can't remember too many DB's drafted lately.
I can remember alot of DB's getting burned though! :banghead2:


.

We haven't had a db selected since '09 and it may be '15-'16, or a 6-7 yr span without one, while schools like Bama and LSU send their starting 4.
NFL wants speed, and they have been looking elsewhere at rb, LB and DB for too long.

 

[MustafaRasta]

So where do you buy the awesome crack that lets you start a Riley Fergussen appreciation thread and a Butch Jones is over paid/ hot seat thread?

I want to buy a bunch of it...for a friend.

 

[Exfix]

I expected the homers to outnumber the realistic fans on a thread like this.

Our PUNTER had the second fastest 40 at our pro day without any dedicated training. Let that simmer in your brains for a minute.

Butch had won at every stop. Let's give him a couple years to build talent and teach his system then let's judge. I'm hoping for 6-7 wins but wouldn't be surprised or worried with 5.

Lastly, I trust the opinions of those betting hundreds of millions of dollars to accurately assess the prospects of winning over delusional fans.

 

[PACKERVOL]

With the opinion circulating that Butch is overpaid, I think it is time to put down the metric for which Year Two will be judged.

Getting to a bowl game is an absolute minimum. Butch is making big boy dinero and he left wins on the field last year. We can forgive (because look who coached them the year before) but there are six no-brainer wins on our schedule and this team is already more than half his.

With the talent he has brought in, an extra month of practice, and we should absolutely handle any low tier bowl opponent. A 6 - 7 year and I think the heat should be on (and rightly so).

I like Butch, and I like almost everything he has done to date in Orange. At the end of the day though, Ws are the only coin of the realm. I think winning a bowl game is a successful Year Two. *

* (anything above 7-wins and the season is a big success as well, bowl game not included)

If we go 6 - 7, it means we did go to a bowl game and lost.

 

[daj2576]

Read it again. I never said it was irrational to "judge". I said it was irrational to personalize it and "hate" as if Dooley did it just to hurt the feelings of Vol fans.

Dooley was held to a standard. It was an appropriate standard and the exact same one I think Jones should be held to.

Dooley didn't improve in year 2 but many including the two of us I believe gave him a bit of a pass due to the loss of Hunter. We gave him a mulligan for UK. But that DID put him on a hot seat entering year 3... and should have. Jones has already had his mulligan. He needs to produce like a coach capable of turning a program around and not just on signing day.

I read it.

It still begs the question: is the conclusion of "hate", as you call it, not a judgment based on perceived performance?

Again, how is that conclusion irrational? Perhaps you are arguing a question of scale or philosophy (how bad is hate, or, should humans hate at all?), but you confirm the idea that Dooley was judged and found wanting. Again, I don't believe that is irrational, and apparently neither do you.

 

[CountVolcula]

Ok, here are some stats


2012 Record 5-7

UT
4.7 YPR
13.3 YPC
20.5 KRA
11.9 PRA
594.2 TYPG
475.9 TOPG

Opponent

4.8 YPR
12.5 YPC
20.6 KRA
8.3 PRA
573.1 TYPG
471.4 TOPG

2013 Record 5-7

4.9 YPR
10.4 YPC
23.8 KRA
8.7 PRA
458 TYPG
353 TOPG

Opponent

5.3 YPR
12.7 YPC
25.4 KRA
9.9 PRA
547 TYPG
418 TOPG

 

[OrangeMagic]

Anyone betting right now is looking for a big payday. The lines will move until the season starts and there's something tangible to bet on.

If you have it... what was Auburn's over/under this time last year? Mizzou's? How about UF's?

Mizzou lost a ton of production from a team that wasn't as good as their record last year. UT, UGA, and UF were all missing critical players when they lost to MU. It isn't just perceived. Take a look at their roster.

I do not understand this comment and I've seen it a lot. Mizzou played in the SEC Championship game, they lost only to Auburn and South Carolina... they were every bit as good as their 12-2 record says they were....

 

[TruUT24]

Vegas lines probably had auburn at 5.5 or 6.5 last year at a what 500:1 for national championship and they got there. So vegas isn't always right I think it is very possible for us to go 7-5 and get a bowl

 

[sjt18]

Sjt18, I know we've gone back and forth a lot, but you're a thoughtful guy and you do your homework so this is an honest question. If a coach is doing all the right things off the field, how long do you give him to stock the roster full of his guys and to fully implement his system on the field? I guess what I'm asking you is how long til you really find out if a guy can coach on this level in this conference?

I would like to see them improve over the previous guy in year one. Jones didn't but that's not enough to condemn him.

I would like to definitely see improvement in year 2. Considering the youthful talent, even one more win and a bowl game would be acceptable and in my mind "promising".

By year 3, I would like to see the Vols at least in the conversation for the East with a major bowl bid.

This "standard" doesn't really change because there is a very pragmatic, "realistic" reason behind it.

To compete, UT needs out of state talent. Jones did what he needed to do with the '14 class. DD btw did it with the class Kiffin left him. Both scored early recruiting successes. Both have gotten passes of sorts for early results. But to keep the recruiting going, a UT coach MUST show improvement in year 2 and then start competing in year 3. That's the only way to keep the recruits coming.

This goes all the way back to an observation I made during Fulmer's last days. Recruiting was good and kept being "good" even though the team somewhat underperformed and began to slip in the early '00's. Then 2005 happened. The class of 2006 reflected that slip but on paper 2007 looked like a nice recovery. Continued questions about blowout losses and team discipline led to Fulmer's worst recruiting class ever in 2008. Then he was fired.

UT must have results on the field regardless of who the coach is in order to recruit competitively out of state. Tenure and stability... won't replace wins. Promises won't replace wins. UT has to WIN. If a coach isn't winning then UT cannot afford to keep him longer than 3 years... 4 years absolute max. If a UT HC has not won more than 8 games by year 4, he definitely needs to go... and especially if there are blowout losses and 2 or 3 losing records.

 

[sjt18]

FWIW, I don't think most here really think about how things are going to look to them with Jones potentially entering year 3 with two consecutive losing records... and especially if there are several blowouts like last year.

 

[Volview]

The win over SCar last year and the top 5 signing class keeps the seat very cool.

 

[oregonvol]

Vegas lines probably had auburn at 5.5 or 6.5 last year at a what 500:1 for national championship and they got there. So vegas isn't always right I think it is very possible for us to go 7-5 and get a bowl

This time last year, Vegas had us favored over Auburn, so if we're all set on using Vegas as the ultimate excuse or the barometer by which we judge if Butch Jones has met the bare minimum of a standard and thus must be considered "good" (note: I've never really understood how meeting the bare minimum became equal with "very good" or "worth 3 million a year", but on volnation, most posters seem to regard them as one and the same, so I guess we'll go with it for this discussions' purposes), then I guess we should all be upset that Butch got whipped by Auburn last year.

 

[sjt18]

I do not understand this comment and I've seen it a lot. Mizzou played in the SEC Championship game, they lost only to Auburn and South Carolina... they were every bit as good as their 12-2 record says they were....

UF was more talented when healthy. UGA was definitely more talented and a better team when healthy. UT would have give them a better run with a healthy Worley. IIRC, even Vandy had some key player losses for the Mizzou game.

What I mean is that their schedule helped them succeed. UT's worked against them.

 

[oregonvol]

FWIW, I don't think most here really think about how things are going to look to them with Jones potentially entering year 3 with two consecutive losing records... and especially if there are several blowouts like last year.

Most on here seem to think that recruiting will still go on unhampered even if we have another bowl-less, pathetic season. Volnation isn't really the best when it comes to realistic prognostication.