Last year, his first time on the Hall of Fame ballot, Bagwell received 41.7 percent of the vote. As Hall of Fame chances go, that isnÂ’t necessarily a distressing starting point. Jim Rice got 29.8 percent his first year. Goose Gossage received 33.3 percent and Gary Carter 42.3 percent. Andre Dawson didnÂ’t begin much higher, at 45.3 percent. Bert Blyleven notoriously started at just 17.8 percent. The writers would eventually vote all those players into the Hall.
The vote total, however, drew outrage across the Internet, and understandably so. For a player of Bagwell's abilities and accomplishments to receive such a low vote total was ... well, something of historic precedent.
Using Baseball-Reference's ranking of players via its Wins Above Replacement statistic, Bagwell rates as one most dominant players since World War II. Here are the position players ranked Nos. 11 through 30 and how many years it took them to get voted into the Hall of Fame:
11. Joe Morgan, 103.5 WAR (1)
12. Eddie Mathews, 98.3 (5)
13. Al Kaline, 91.0 (1)
14. Cal Ripken, 89.9 (1)
15. Albert Pujols, 89.1 (not eligible)
16. Wade Boggs, 89.0 (1)
17. Carl Yastrzemski, 88.7 (1)
18. George Brett, 85.0 (1)
19. Roberto Clemente, 83.8 (1)
20. Chipper Jones, 82.9 (not eligible)
21. JEFF BAGWELL, 79.9 (41.7 percent)
22. Rod Carew, 79.1 (1)
23. Ken Griffey Jr., 78.5 (not eligible)
24. Robin Yount, 76.9 (1)
25. Frank Thomas, 75.9 (not eligible)
26. Pete Rose, 75.3 (not eligible)
27. Paul Molitor, 74.8 (1)
28. Reggie Jackson, 74.6 (1)
29. Jim Thome, 71.4 (not eligible)
30. Johnny Bench, 71.3 (1)
Wins Above Replacement may not be a perfect statistic, but I don't think anyone can argue that the above list represents anything other than a list of the greatest players of the past 50-plus years. As you can see, other than Mathews, every eligible candidate cruised into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility. Furthermore, the following players, all with a career WAR below 70, made it in their first year: Brooks Robinson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Murray, Willie McCovey, Ozzie Smith, Ernie Banks, Dave Winfield, Willie Stargell and Kirby Puckett.
Yet Bagwell couldn't receive 50 percent of the vote, which indicates one of two things:
1. A large percentage of voters don't realize how great Bagwell was.
2. A large percentage of voters didn't vote for him because he had big muscles.