11/7 Allstate Playoff Predictor

[LAVol1]

I feel like the committee is going to go with a 1 loss conference champion over UT (except TCU if they are a 1 loss Big 12 champ). If it's UNC or Clemson at 1 loss in the ACC and Oregon/USC/UCLA at 1 loss in the Pac 12 they'd be ahead of UT in the final playoff rankings. And there's a chance that if OSU/Michigan is a very tight game the loser could be ahead of them.

If the Vols win out, no way will Oregon be ranked ahead of them because of the UGA drubbing. Then, the committee will look at the strength of schedule and the losses. Clemson's loss to ND is much worse than the Vols loss to #1 UGA on the road. If UNC were to beat Clemson, their 3 pt. wins over Duke, UVA, and Miami coupled with a 2 pt. win over App St. and a loss to ND will put them at about #7 or 8. If the Vols win out convincingly , the only way we're not in is if two of three of the following plays out: TCU wins out, Clemson absolutely destroys their remaining opponents, OSU and Michigan is a really close game. Otherwise, we're in.

 

[USCGVOL!!]

I'd love to be a 3 seed and avoid UGA until the title game, but that committee will do everything it can to avoid an all SEC final. If UGA wins out, UT will not get the 3 seed. No way.

If GA is one and TN 3, that gives two teams the chance to prevent an SEC vs SEC champ game. That would be the committee saying these are the best 4 teams, now show us who are the best two.

 

[JMSqb11]

If TCU loses we definitely end up in that 3 spot. The way the schedules are looking I wouldn't be surprised if Mich lost to Illinois, TCU loses the next 2, & Oregon loses to Utah

We are a lock for the #3 seed as it stands now. After Michigan / OSU loser drops out of #3, we will be in the #3 spot as long as we go 11-1. This isn't controversial or hard to understand.

Just listen to Boo, baby.

 

[Shocker0]

This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.

I bet the CFP will have us #3 or #4 this week. Most likely #4 but I could see #3 still.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Vols MUST take care of business with the last three games. If that happens along with TCU, UGA, and OSU winning out then I feel safe with the four below.
1 UGA
2 OSU
3 UT
4 TCU
I know it will sound odd to some placing UT at 3 ahead of TCU but UT has a better resume imo and I have a feeling the PO committee will want to avoid a first-round matchup of UT & UGA. If TCU loses A PAC12 team takes their place. ACC has no business in the playoff this year being the weakest of the P5. PITT, KY, and UF also have realistic shots of finishing with 8 regular season wins. That would help bolster our strength of schedule.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

Worst case scenarios for us are these four things all occurring:

TCU wins out. (fair chance)
OR or USC wins out and big in Pac12 Championship (fair chance)
OSU/Michigan is tight, winner dominates Big10 Championship (likely)
LSU upsets Georgia (unlikely)

In that scenario, Georgia gets a spot and Big 10 Champ gets a spot. TCU, Pac12 Champ, OSU/MI and us fight it out for 2 spots among 4 teams, two of them also having the benefit of more recent wins and conference championships.

We need to curbstomp Mizzou, USCJr., and Vandy.

 

[IndianaVol]

Worst case scenarios for us are these four things occurring:

TCU wins out.
OR or USC wins out and big in Pac12 Championship
OSU/Michigan is tight, winner dominates Big10 Championship
LSU upsets Georgia

AGREE...if LSU does the unthinkable and knocks of UGA, we're out and they still take UGA.

 

[sjt18]

Where’s Oregon?

They need to finish with one loss. Their last 3 games are:

Washington 7-2 #24
Utah 7-2 #13
and Oregon State at 6-3 who fell out of the top 25 after losing a close game @ UW.

If they manage to win out then they will likely play USC or UCLA in the Pac12 CG..

USC's plays Colorado then UCLA and ND. They could be the fly in the ointment for the Pac12 if they lose to ND then win the CG.

UCLA has a much easier path. They play Arizona, USC, and then Cal.

It would be easy to see that ending up with a bunch of 2 loss teams... but a one loss team would have a good resume.

 

[sjt18]

Worst case scenarios for us are these four things occurring:

TCU wins out.
OR or USC wins out and big in Pac12 Championship
OSU/Michigan is tight, winner dominates Big10 Championship
LSU upsets Georgia

UCLA needs a win over USC to make the CG. That would likely give them an opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season vs Oregon. I suspect that's the worst case in the Pac12.

 

[sjt18]

Next year
Bc Michigan will beat them this year

Could be... but I honestly don't think Michigan is a very good team. Neither has played an impressive schedule.

 

[Winchester73]

Lot of football to play. It’s not a given TN or GA will be in the championship game. That said, it would be perfect to play and defeat GA for the championship.

 

[JBVolunteer]

Tennessee reached #1 because the schedule was front loaded with top 25 teams and we remained undefeated through that gauntlet. Unfortunately, with Saturday’s loss we lost our chance at a conference championship. That in itself isn’t necessarily a problem however, if the CFP is our goal; I think we have a really BIG PROBLEM…

Unfortunately, we lost decisively in November and because of that loss and the fact that there are no quality opponents remaining on Tennessee’s schedule; we will not have an opportunity to show the committee that we have truly righted the ship after a disastrous performance … Meanwhile, other teams behind us still have quality regular season opponents and the benefit of the bonus championship game to add to their resume.

While we are sitting at 5th at the moment; there are teams right behind us with significant games coming up… In my opinion, we are likely to miss the CFP this year. Hope I’m wrong. Only time will tell.

 

[VolArmy74]

Tennessee reached #1 because the schedule was front loaded with top 25 teams and we remained undefeated through that gauntlet. Unfortunately, with Saturday’s loss we lost our chance at a conference championship. That in itself isn’t necessarily a problem however, if the CFP is our goal; I think we have a really BIG PROBLEM…

Unfortunately, we lost decisively in November and because of that loss and the fact that there are no quality opponents remaining on Tennessee’s schedule; we will not have an opportunity to show the committee that we have truly righted the ship after a disastrous performance … Meanwhile, other teams behind us still have quality regular season opponents and the benefit of the bonus championship game to add to their resume.

While we are sitting at 5th at the moment; there are teams right behind us with significant games coming up… In my opinion, we are likely to miss the CFP this year. Hope I’m wrong. Only time will tell.

At the end of the season, assuming we don't lose again, we will have the best loss of any 1 loss team, and the best win of any 1 loss team unless LSU falls apart.

 

[JMSqb11]

AGREE...if LSU does the unthinkable and knocks of UGA, we're out and they still take UGA.

Not really. LSU needs a few thing to happen:

TCU needs to lose as that would ensure the Big 12, ACC, and PAC12 champions all have 1 loss.

From there, OSU and Michigan would need to have a one sided game result.

LSU making the playoff doesn't impact our playoff chances. At 11-1, we are #3 seed and a lock.

If LSU made the playoff, they'd be a 4 seed at best and UGA would drop to #2 with likely BIG 10 OSU/Michigan winner being the #1 seed.

If TCU drops a game, they are out of the top 10..... They have no good remaining opponents on their schedule (all 2 loss teams or worse) that they can lose to and stay in the top 10. So that is a spot LSU moves up to. From there it would be a game giving the #4 seed to 1 loss Clemson/UNC from ACC, 1 loss Oregon,USC,UCLA from PAC 12, or 2 loss LSU SEC Champion.....

Since LSU would have a loss to the #3 seed, that isn't a terrible loss even with the blowout. The committee would need to look at who had the best worst loss.... LSU losing on a missed PAT to Florida State, Oregon getting blown out by 46 points, or Clemson (and UNC for that matter) losing to a ND squad by double digits.....

Of course since Boo said they are looking for best teams first and not which conferences, that would involve looking to Vegas. Who would be favored in any of the matchups LSU vs 1 loss PAC12 champ, 1 loss ACC champ.... Same goes for PAC 12 champ vs ACC champ....

I don't find any scenario where a 12-1 Oregon/USC/UCLA or 12-1 Clemson/UNC would be favored over an 11-2 that just rattled off a 7 game win streak that included 3 top 10 wins.....

For the record, I don't think LSU has a chance in hell vs UGA..... I equate this year's LSU team to Auburn of 2017 that knocked off Bama 26-14 to go to Atlanta only get blown up by UGA in Atlanta by 3 scores.

However, if TCU drops a game, LSU at #6 or #7 in this week's rankings give them a small window. If they are in the top 6 when they play #1 UGA in Atlanta, a win would give them serious considerations at the #4....

 

[GrizzlyVol]

I say Tuesday we will be 5th

In the end I think it'll be
1 GA
2 OSU
3 Oregon
4 Tennessee

 

[SicEmSmokey33]

TCU loses one of last 3...they gone
Utah beats Oregon, USC beats UCLA, Notre Dame beats USC...Pac 12 champ has 2 losses and we are in no doubt!!

 

[BACKDOC]

My son is a student at Michigan; I would love to play them. Not to mention they put us out of the NCAA tourney last year in basketball as well as soccer.

 

[BACKDOC]

I say Tuesday we will be 5th

In the end I think it'll be
1 GA
2 OSU
3 Oregon
4 Tennessee

Impossible, they will not match Georgia up to play another SEC team in the opening game. Not to mention Oregon lost by 46 to UGA.

 

[Spook1]

A lot changes but the ESPN/Allstate Playoff Predictor shows Tennessee with the best chance (77%) to make the playoffs as a one loss team if we win out.

Better than a one loss PAC12 Champion (64%), a one loss ACC Champion (62%), a 2-loss LSU who wins the SEC Championship (55%), a 1-loss BIG12 Champ (55%) or a 1-loss Michigan (56%).

Tennessee is in a great spot.

With the above, it really is looking like:
1. UGA
2. OSU
3. Tennessee
4. Someone else from the grouping above.

Discuss.

Hope it turns out like you list...that way UT would play OSU instead of UGA in the first championship game. If we end up $, then it is UGA again.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

I’d much rather play Michigan than Ohio State. I think they’re a much better matchup for us than Ohio State. Their strength goes against our strength and our strength in the pass game would go against their weakness (pass defense).

 

[JMSqb11]

I say Tuesday we will be 5th

In the end I think it'll be
1 GA
2 OSU
3 Oregon
4 Tennessee

Oregon would not get a nod over us just because they win the PAC12. The reward of the 3 seed isn’t going to a team that lost by 46 in a neutral site to a team we lost to by 14 on the road.

 

[perico]

I'd love to be a 3 seed and avoid UGA until the title game, but that committee will do everything it can to avoid an all SEC final. If UGA wins out, UT will not get the 3 seed. No way.

They’ll match us up against Ohio State. That’s who they want UGA to play in the finals and they have always avoided matching two SEC teams up in the semifinals. Last year, I think the committee chair admitted as much as to why UGA was seeded 3rd ahead of Cincinnati (which was a somewhat controversial seed at the time as everyone thought UGA would be 4th).

I can’t think of an instance where 2 SEC teams met in a semifinal game. Every matchup has been in the finals. In 2017 UGA was 3rd and Bama was 4th. Last year Bama was 1st and UGA was 3rd.

 

[Neyland Law Vol]

They’ll match us up against Ohio State. That’s who they want UGA to play in the finals and they have always avoided matching two SEC teams up in the semifinals. Last year, I think the committee chair admitted as much as to why UGA was seeded 3rd ahead of Cincinnati (which was a somewhat controversial seed at the time as everyone thought UGA would be 4th).

I can’t think of an instance where 2 SEC teams met in a semifinal game. Every matchup has been in the finals. In 2017 UGA was 3rd and Bama was 4th. Last year Bama was 1st and UGA was 3rd.

TN will play in Arizona. Go ahead and book your flights, and buy tickets.

 

[GrizzlyVol]

Impossible, they will not match Georgia up to play another SEC team in the opening game. Not to mention Oregon lost by 46 to UGA.

Damn sorry I had an opinion, I should've just asked you

 

[GrizzlyVol]

Impossible, they will not match Georgia up to play another SEC team in the opening game. Not to mention Oregon lost by 46 to UGA.

You have no idea how the committee will rank them, I know you think you do but that's your opinion