11/7 Allstate Playoff Predictor

#51
#51
JMSqb11 said:
Not really. LSU needs a few thing to happen:

TCU needs to lose as that would ensure the Big 12, ACC, and PAC12 champions all have 1 loss.

From there, OSU and Michigan would need to have a one sided game result.

LSU making the playoff doesn't impact our playoff chances. At 11-1, we are #3 seed and a lock.

If LSU made the playoff, they'd be a 4 seed at best and UGA would drop to #2 with likely BIG 10 OSU/Michigan winner being the #1 seed.

If TCU drops a game, they are out of the top 10..... They have no good remaining opponents on their schedule (all 2 loss teams or worse) that they can lose to and stay in the top 10. So that is a spot LSU moves up to. From there it would be a game giving the #4 seed to 1 loss Clemson/UNC from ACC, 1 loss Oregon,USC,UCLA from PAC 12, or 2 loss LSU SEC Champion.....

Since LSU would have a loss to the #3 seed, that isn't a terrible loss even with the blowout. The committee would need to look at who had the best worst loss.... LSU losing on a missed PAT to Florida State, Oregon getting blown out by 46 points, or Clemson (and UNC for that matter) losing to a ND squad by double digits.....

Of course since Boo said they are looking for best teams first and not which conferences, that would involve looking to Vegas. Who would be favored in any of the matchups LSU vs 1 loss PAC12 champ, 1 loss ACC champ.... Same goes for PAC 12 champ vs ACC champ....

I don't find any scenario where a 12-1 Oregon/USC/UCLA or 12-1 Clemson/UNC would be favored over an 11-2 that just rattled off a 7 game win streak that included 3 top 10 wins.....

For the record, I don't think LSU has a chance in hell vs UGA..... I equate this year's LSU team to Auburn of 2017 that knocked off Bama 26-14 to go to Atlanta only get blown up by UGA in Atlanta by 3 scores.

However, if TCU drops a game, LSU at #6 or #7 in this week's rankings give them a small window. If they are in the top 6 when they play #1 UGA in Atlanta, a win would give them serious considerations at the #4....
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Agree they might be the three best teams, but there is less than zero chance that LSU, Georgia, and Tennessee all get in.
 
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#52
#52
miket4god said:
Agree they might be the three best teams, but there is less than zero chance that LSU, Georgia, and Tennessee all get in.
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The odds of 3 teams are small but LSU is a TCU loss and SEC Championship away from forcing the issue.

There is no scenario where LSU makes the playoff and Tennessee doesn’t. So LSU making the playoff means 3 SEC teams.
 
#53
#53
CAVPUT said:
I'd love to be a 3 seed and avoid UGA until the title game, but that committee will do everything it can to avoid an all SEC final. If UGA wins out, UT will not get the 3 seed. No way.
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That just shows how ****** the championship tournament really is.
 
#54
#54
JMSqb11 said:
We are a lock for the #3 seed as it stands now. After Michigan / OSU loser drops out of #3, we will be in the #3 spot as long as we go 11-1. This isn't controversial or hard to understand.

Just listen to Boo, baby.
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I did listen to him that's how I know their not putting a lot of stock in to winning a conference championship. Boo Carrigan said they didn't look at conference at all they looked at who u beat.
 
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#56
#56
JMSqb11 said:
Oregon would not get a nod over us just because they win the PAC12. The reward of the 3 seed isn’t going to a team that lost by 46 in a neutral site to a team we lost to by 14 on the road.
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They absolutely would. That game was the first of the year with a brand new coach and if they win every game after with plenty of ranked wins in there and are pac 12 champs they will be over us.
 
#57
#57
FBtime said:
They absolutely would. That game was the first of the year with a brand new coach and if they win every game after with plenty of ranked wins in there and are pac 12 champs they will be over us.
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Yep. If the committee had to choose between Oregon or a second team from the SEC not named UGA or Bama, you can bet the farm they'll grab Oregon. They'll kill 2 birds with one stone. Only 1 team from the SEC in the playoff and they can grab some west coast eyeballs. If we do, in fact, make the playoffs, I will bet the farm that we'll be the 4 seed playing UGA in rd 1. No way we'll be a 3 seed and have the risk of an all SEC final come to fruition. That's a worst case scenario for the committee.
 
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#58
#58
CAVPUT said:
Yep. If the committee had to choose between Oregon or a second team from the SEC not named UGA or Bama, you can bet the farm they'll grab Oregon. They'll kill 2 birds with one stone. Only 1 team from the SEC in the playoff and they can grab some west coast eyeballs. If we do, in fact, make the playoffs, I will bet the farm that we'll be the 4 seed playing UGA in rd 1. No way we'll be a 3 seed and have the risk of an all SEC final come to fruition. That's a worst case scenario for the committee.
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None of this checks out.
 
#59
#59
Not sure they want a Oregon vs ga matchup again but they could sale it as a redemption game so who knows. Could be redemption playoffs everybody vs uga
 
#61
#61
5FingerVolPunch said:
This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.
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This would be the perfect scenario in my opinion. Beat UM and play in the natti
 
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#62
#62
Obviously we need to win out. But I wouldn't feel confident unless at least two of the following happen:

1. TCU drops one
2. Pac 12 champion has 2 losses
3. Georgia wins the SEC
 
#64
#64
Right now here is how i think the Playoffs will go

1-Georgia
2-Ohio State
3-USC
4-TCU

Teams on the outside looking in

LSU
Tennessee
Clemson
Michigan
 
#67
#67
FBtime said:
They absolutely would. That game was the first of the year with a brand new coach and if they win every game after with plenty of ranked wins in there and are pac 12 champs they will be over us.
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You’re mistaken. Tennessee at 11-1 will be the 3 seed. A one loss Big12, PAC12, ACC champ would get the final playoff spot.
There is no scenario where a third conference champ with 1 loss gets the 3 seed over an 11-1 Tennessee. Tennessee’s ceiling is the 3 seed. PAC12, ACC, and Big12 are fighting for the final spot. Tennessee is going to the playoff as 11-1 team. This is not debatable.
 
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#68
#68
sjt18 said:
Win or lose... I'd rather have a shot at tOSU before UGA again. I hope that plays out.

If the Pac12 produces a one loss champion I will be shocked if they don't make it in.
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I don’t like it but a 1 loss pac 12 conf champ team makes it in before us logic says…but then again, a 1 loss Clemson acc champ with a bad loss isn’t getting in before us. Guess got to be careful who you lose to
 
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#69
#69
Jeff Clark said:
I have a feeling the winner of the PAC-12 Championship Game will be invited because they wont want to leave them out.
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I still see a scenario where TCU loses one game and misses out and PAC 12 winner is in. If we win out, we would get the least spot because one of OSU/UM ain’t going to make it
 
#70
#70
5FingerVolPunch said:
This is how I see it shaking out.
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. Vols
4. OSU

I think TCU loses to Texas Saturday bumping Vols from #5 to #4. Then I think Michigan upsets OSU. OSU falls to #4 and Vols jump to #3.

This is assuming the CFP has Vols at #5 on Tuesday.
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Michigan or Ohio st will not be there
 
#72
#72
sjt18 said:
Win or lose... I'd rather have a shot at tOSU before UGA again. I hope that plays out.

If the Pac12 produces a one loss champion I will be shocked if they don't make it in.
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If USC beat Oregon then yeah
 
#74
#74
Here is what hurts Tennessee: 1) At a national level, no one watched (5)Tennessee vs (25)LSU. 2) A 2-loss Bama hurts the value of the Bama win. 3) Everyone watched (1)Tennessee vs (3) Georgia. 4) No Divison Title 5) No Conference Title Game 6) No Conference Title 7) Brand: the networks are in this for the money. They'll select the teams that they have to. Ex. undefeated TCU but when it comes to preference Ex. 11-1 Tennesse vs 11-1 USC, it's not even close. They will take USC every time. Tennessee has to rebuild its national brand. Tennessee had it in the 90's it can get it again but it doesn't have it today.
 
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