'17 LA RB Trey Coleman (UT signee)

#202
#202
This kid's film looks good. Coach Gillespie certainly did his homework on this one. Kid is most definitely under-rated!
 
#205
#205
Some facts from Clay Travis. We can now finally say that signing a lot of 3 star players is not the right way to win big in college football. There is no reason to even argue the point anymore.

Every year there are tons of Tweets about how "stars don't matter," and random social media examples of two and three star athletes who have become stars in the NFL. Sure, stars may not matter for individual players -- that is, being a five star doesn't guarantee that a specific player will be a high draft pick -- but the teams that sign the most four and five stars are typically the best in the country. That's because recruiting is essentially a game of probability. the more top players you get into your program the more chances you have to develop elite first round talent. Nearly half of all five stars will be drafted. Around one percent of all two stars will be drafted. All things being equal, the more four and five stars your team signs, the better they'll be.
 
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#207
#207
butchna said:
But shouldn't there be a higher percentage of the "vastly superior players"?
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Exactly..high 4* and 5* aren't supposed to bust or wash out..they are supposed to be the "can't miss" prospects. So it looks like there would be way more former top 100 types percentage wise in the NFL. The first 2-3 rounds of the draft every year should be almost impossible for a lowly 3* to break into.
 
#210
#210
JohnMcA60 said:
Point made and point taken. Good list that shows stars don't always = championships. The fit is what matters and the balance. Not the stars.
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Well, not to belabor the point, but stars do matter in the aggregate. East side is right. Since the dawn of the modern recruiting rating system, I think every team except Auburn 2010 had an average class ranking in the preceding 4 years of at least top 10. And Auburn was something like top 15.

Said differently, I think Tennessee's is currently 12 or 13. So if we win a title this year we will be one of the least talented in history to do so.

With all that said its June and way too early to be hand wringing about the ranking of this year's class.
 
#211
#211
vol2002 said:
Well, not to belabor the point, but stars do matter in the aggregate. East side is right. Since the dawn of the modern recruiting rating system, I think every team except Auburn 2010 had an average class ranking in the preceding 4 years of at least top 10. And Auburn was something like top 15.

Said differently, I think Tennessee's is currently 12 or 13. So if we win a title this year we will be one of the least talented in history to do so.

With all that said its June and way too early to be hand wringing about the ranking of this year's class.
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That last sentence is all that needs to be said.
 
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#212
#212
vol2002 said:
Well, not to belabor the point, but stars do matter in the aggregate. East side is right. Since the dawn of the modern recruiting rating system, I think every team except Auburn 2010 had an average class ranking in the preceding 4 years of at least top 10. And Auburn was something like top 15.

Said differently, I think Tennessee's is currently 12 or 13. So if we win a title this year we will be one of the least talented in history to do so.

With all that said its June and way too early to be hand wringing about the ranking of this year's class.
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I wonder if any of those 11-12 teams ahead of us in "talent" have as much playing time experience. Playing time against the best possible competition at that.
 
#213
#213
SouthKnoxVOL said:
Man...I tell you what those last few 4* and 5* qb's that LSU has had have really been amazing....lol....kid stfu.
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Recruiting rankings are not specifically accurate but they ARE generally accurate.

What I mean is that someone can get 2, 3, 4, 5, or zero stars and play completely different than their rating. So individually, there's a lot more that goes into than just raw talent. OTOH, the rankings are accurate enough that if you are continually getting 4 and 5 star players.... you're going to have a bunch of individuals with talent.

PS- Miles has sucked with QB development his whole time at LSU. The most surprising thing is that he continues to get highly rated QB's that anyone else wants.

In spite of all those highly rated guys, his QB's have avg'd 10th in passing ypg in the SEC over the last 8 years with no top tier NFL prospects. They also avg'd 9th in completion %. They were 10th or worse in each of the last 7 years in attempts/game and dead last in three of the last 5 years.


Why any quality QB would want to go there while Miles is there is a mystery.
 
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#214
#214
glichtenwalter said:
its-science-anchorman.gif
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No, it's math and statistical probability. n number of things given r at a time.
 
#218
#218
Ulysees E. McGill said:
Exactly..high 4* and 5* aren't supposed to bust or wash out..they are supposed to be the "can't miss" prospects. So it looks like there would be way more former top 100 types percentage wise in the NFL. The first 2-3 rounds of the draft every year should be almost impossible for a lowly 3* to break into.
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This is not accurate, at all.

High 4's & 5's are not "can't miss" prospects. 4's & 5's are simply statistically "more likely" to make it than 3's & 2's.

This is how it historically breaks down (Rivals data)

5 Star - 50%
4 Star - 33%
3 Star - 8%
2 Star - 2%

Anyone 1 kid can bust out, or make it from the bottom. You have to look at it in the aggregate.

And when you do look at it in the aggregate, it becomes very clear.
 
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#219
#219
85SugarVol said:
This is not accurate, at all.

High 4's & 5's are not "can't miss" prospects. 4's & 5's are simply statistically "more likely" to make it than 3's & 2's.

This is how it historically breaks down (Rivals data)

5 Star - 50%
4 Star - 33%
3 Star - 8%
2 Star - 2%

Anyone 1 kid can bust out, or make it from the bottom. You have to look at it in the aggregate.

And when you do look at it in the aggregate, it becomes very clear.
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I don't get why this is so hard to understand.
 
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#220
#220
Bottom line the way I see it--there are examples of 3* that are studs, and 4* that are busts, but I'd take a roster of 20 4* over a roster of 20 3* sight unseen.
 
#221
#221
Volinnooga said:
Bottom line the way I see it--there are examples of 3* that are studs, and 4* that are busts, but I'd take a roster of 20 4* over a roster of 20 3* sight unseen.
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I think that was the approach Kiffin used at UT. I think about 5% of that class wasn't dismissed or jailed. LOL
 
#222
#222
Volinnooga said:
Bottom line the way I see it--there are examples of 3* that are studs, and 4* that are busts, but I'd take a roster of 20 4* over a roster of 20 3* sight unseen.
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Your first part is right, and I know where you're going with the second part.

But I wouldn't take 20 4's over 20 3's "sight unseen".

We could probably pluck 20 Composite 3 Stars that we would value more than 20 Composite 4 Stars.

But your point is valid.

On average, over time, filling up classes with 4's & 5's is better for the health of your program.
 
#223
#223
85SugarVol said:
Your first part is right, and I know where you're going with the second part.

But I wouldn't take 20 4's over 20 3's "sight unseen".

We could probably pluck 20 Composite 3 Stars that we would value more than 20 Composite 4 Stars.

But your point is valid.

On average, over time, filling up classes with 4's & 5's is better for the health of your program.
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You don't take them sight unseen. That's why D4H watches all that film
 
#225
#225
The thing I've learned most about asstonomy in this thread is that people just assign past recruits as many stars as they feel like remembering
 
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