Year One- hardly enough scholarship players to run a practice, plus the guys he does have see him as "their buddy the assistant coach" rather than an HC. Makes the NIT and washes out in the second game.
Year Two- Brings in a great recruiting class but struggles with a team of all freshman. Needs an AQ to make it to the dance (suspected, we'll never know if Memphis could've gotten the at-large). Plays well against a good Zona squad but loses.
Year Three- A sophomore squad who wins the C-USA reg. season and tournament handily, but loses to any big name they play (and several mediocre teams as well: Murray St., UTEP). Matched up against a comparable St. Louis squad in NCAA first round and loses. Will Barton is drafted in the first round.
Year Four- The narrative is "can he win in the NCAA's and can he beat top 25 teams"? Memphis eats C-USA alive for the second year in a row, but loses most significant OOC games. Pastner finally gets his first NCAA win and Top 25 win, though. Has another top 4 recruiting class coming in, along with a bevvy of seniors for next season.
I see improvement. He's not on the Shaka Smart/Brad Stephens parabola of success as a young coach, but not many young coaches are.