2020 Presidential Race

[Rifleman]

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Predictive markets show this map, with roughly dead ties in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If Trump holds Arizona and Wisconsin and everything else stays the same, we get a 269 tie and the perfect end to a horrible year.

 

[volfanhill]

Maybe it's residual fallout from having been a democrat in the past? Trump definitely feels comfortable playing the victim. He is always complaining about unfair treatment of some kind. Someone out there is doing him wrong. Every day... day after day. Poor Ol' Donald is always being mistreated.

It’s a massive character flaw of his for sure

 

[BowlBrother85]

View attachment 282476\


Predictive markets show this map, with roughly dead ties in Arizon, Florida, North Carolina, and Florida.

If Trump holds Arizona and Wisconsin and everything else stays the same, we get a 269 tie and the perfect end to a horrible year.

I'm pretty sure that with two ties in Florida... it goes to the Democrat. At least, that is what I've heard. LOL.

 

[Rifleman]

I'm pretty sure that with two ties in Florida... it goes to the Democrat. At least, that is what I've heard. LOL.

Last I checked, the Republicans controlled 26 state's U.S. House delegations, so they'd likely win the tie even though: Biden would have more votes overall and more support from the House overall. In this scenario a single congressman from Wyoming would have the same power as California's entire delegation.

 

[BowlBrother85]

Last I checked, the Republicans controlled 26 state's U.S. House delegations, so they'd likely win the tie even though: Biden would have more votes overall and more support from the House overall. In this scenario a single congressman from Wyoming would have the same power as California's entire delegation.

Was just pointing out that you cited Florida as being a tie twice in an above post.

It is important to note that an apparent tie on election night does not mean that there is an actual tie. The Electors meet on December 14th, to cast their votes. Only about half of the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner. It is possible that an Elector could cast his or her vote for another person and become "faithless". It is rare, but it has happened. I would actually enjoy seeing Trump lose an election this way... his head would explode.

 

[hUTch2002]

As if they would end up doing anything about it. They would get mad, outraged, yell for a while then still vote D at the end of the day.

Yeah but the Dems don’t care. They’ll placate and pander.

 

[Rifleman]

Was just pointing out that you cited Florida as being a tie twice in an above post.

It is important to note that an apparent tie on election night does not mean that there is an actual tie. The Electors meet on December 14th, to cast their votes. Only about half of the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner. It is possible that an Elector could cast his or her vote for another person and become "faithless". It is rare, but it has happened. I would actually enjoy seeing Trump lose an election this way... his head would explode.

If an unfaithful elector were decisive, then the Supreme Court would ultimately decide the victor in the ensuing case. That would only further undermine a central institution. Nothing good comes out of a tie.

Also, fixed that earlier typo. Thanks! Florida is always key of course, but not that key.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Interesting chain of events in VA... granted it is on the local level, but interesting still.

Virginia City That Voted Obama Twice Throw Democrats Out Of Office

“Democrats got their voters out better than they have in a May cycle in years,” Graham wrote. “Republicans got turnout more akin to, not quite a presidential year, but approaching gubernatorial.”

Graham cited gun control legislation in the state as well as COVID-19 lockdowns as key turnout drivers for Republicans in the city.

“Bottom line is that the strategies worked, flipping both from D to R, but the change in Staunton is stunning almost beyond words,” Graham opined. “A city that voted for Barack Obama, twice, voted for Hillary Clinton, voted for Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, even gave a solid majority to Jennifer Lewis in her 2018 congressional run against Ben Cline, is now controlled by Republicans.”

 

[MurphyVol]

If there's a tie, I say we let the two senile perverts have a cage match to declare a winner

 

[Zues1]

If there's a tie, I say we let the two senile perverts have a cage match to declare a winner

Toss a girl in the cage and see who can catch her. I kid, I kid.

 

[UT_VOLS13]

Elizabeth Warren: Democrats see her as rising VP contender as coronavirus reshuffles 2020 race - CNNPolitics

 

[Rifleman]

Interesting chain of events in VA... granted it is on the local level, but interesting still.

Virginia City That Voted Obama Twice Throw Democrats Out Of Office

Staunton is a center right city of 24,000 total in one of the redder counties in Virginia. This really has nothing to do with statewide or national races. Obama barely won there with just over 50%.

Republicans should do great in 2021 if Biden wins. Virginia likes to punish the party in the White House in state elections.

 

[hUTch2002]

Elizabeth Warren: Democrats see her as rising VP contender as coronavirus reshuffles 2020 race - CNNPolitics

She makes sense in that she would probably be able wrangle any potentially disappointed Bernie supporters to make sure they vote. I think it’s between her and Susan Rice.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Still waiting to see any enthusiasm for Biden like what’s happening for Trump.

There is for Biden, it's called mail in ballots.

 

[VolStrom]

There is for Biden, it's called mail in ballots.

Are they in Espanol?

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

The Democrats fear the worst in November and are melting down in predictable ways

 

[BowlBrother85]

View attachment 282476\


Predictive markets show this map, with roughly dead ties in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If Trump holds Arizona and Wisconsin and everything else stays the same, we get a 269 tie and the perfect end to a horrible year.

I will point out that the predictive map you have posted does not have Arizona as being a "roughly dead tie" at all in their poll. In fact, they show Biden with a 7 point lead (50% to 43%) over Trump. That is well outside of the margin of error and surprising. It could be an outlier... or it could be a sign that Trump is losing popularity in that state. Arizona is definitely trending toward the Democratic Party column. Mark Kelly is going to beat Martha McSally. That will leave them with two Democratic Party Senators.

 

[Franklin Pierce]

View attachment 282476\


Predictive markets show this map, with roughly dead ties in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If Trump holds Arizona and Wisconsin and everything else stays the same, we get a 269 tie and the perfect end to a horrible year.

October 2016 Electoral map Prediction:

 

[Franklin Pierce]

AP 2016 Presidential Electoral College Prediction Map November 7, 2016, One Day Before The Vote:

 

[Rifleman]

I will point out that the predictive map you have posted does not have Arizona as being a "roughly dead tie" at all in their poll. In fact, they show Biden with a 7 point lead (50% to 43%) over Trump. That is well outside of the margin of error and surprising. It could be an outlier... or it could be a sign that Trump is losing popularity in that state. Arizona is definitely trending toward the Democratic Party column. Mark Kelly is going to beat Martha McSally. That will leave them with two Democratic Party Senators.

Kelly should have coattails, but this will also probably get closer before election day. Even that Senate seat is a huge pick up, but I don't think Biden will easily win here unless it is a real trouncing. In which case, Arizona will just pad his win.

The lower margin of error poll from Marist poll had it 47/46 but is a bit dated.

Arizona is also setting up to be a very big fight about how the election is administered as well, and it is going to get quite nasty with a pending Supreme Court case already. This is one to watch, without a doubt.

 

[Rifleman]

AP 2016 Presidential Electoral College Prediction Map November 7, 2016, One Day Before The Vote:

Not that far off considering the margins. A number of states have moved into a clearer territory this time. Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa . . . If it is a close race, then there are 5 or so states to pick. Otherwise, we'll likely have a better idea as neither candidate is much of a wild card this time.

In short, people felt too assured of the outcome last time, so they will probably be too cautious about projections this time.

 

[hog88]

Lol, wonders never cease. I actually agree with Ann Coulter for one. Trump is a complete blithering idiot

No, she’s a ****ing ****.

 

[hog88]

Sigh.

View attachment 282468View attachment 282469View attachment 282470

What, maybe 2-300 people?

 

[CagleMtnVol]

Triggered

 

[GoBigOrangeUT]

What, maybe 2-300 people?

Standing up too. Not as fancy as the boat riders.