2020 Presidential Race

[Smokey'sHandler]

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Predictive markets show this map, with roughly dead ties in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

If Trump holds Arizona and Wisconsin and everything else stays the same, we get a 269 tie and the perfect end to a horrible year.

As it sits today I see no way that the Dems carry Wi, Mi, Pa, or Va. So many of the people in those states have been extremely turned off by their Dem leadership. I would be highly surprised if their disdain is not still there come election time.

 

[golfballs]

Dems actively rooting against the economy, America
The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

 

[carlos86]

As it sits today I see no way that the Dems carry Wi, Mi, Pa, or Va. So many of the people in those states have been extremely turned off by their Dem leadership. I would be highly surprised if their disdain is not still there come election time.

RCP Average: National: Biden 48.4 (+5.5) Trump 42.9
Pennsylvania: Biden 48.3 (+6.5) Trump 41.8
Michigan: Biden 46.5 (+5.5) Trump 41.0
Arizona: Biden 48.2 (+4.0) Trump 44.2
Florida: Biden 48.3 (+3.3) Trump 45.0 .
Wisconsin: Biden 46.0 (+2.7) Trump 43.3

A lot of people here and in the Trump campaign believe that this is 2016 again or the overall goal of the Trump campaign is to turn 2020 into 2016. The problem with this strategy is that Biden isn't Clinton. Trump isn't He's not running against the person who was, fairly or unfairly, the most disliked and mistrusted nominee in American history. Trump's play is the same as the 2016 label Biden and Obama the boogeyman, sow doesn't within the Dem Party that suppress voter turnout and as Steve Bannon said " Just throw random Sh*t against the wall and hope people see it." The problem with this strategy is that Trump is the incumbent. He's not this new sparking object. America knows what he is and doesn't like it. Trump's approval rating is underwater 12 points at Approve 43% Disapprove 55%and that's from Rasmussen polls. Then you have to include the incumbent Senators who are hated in their home states like Corey Gardener in CO, Martha MaSally in Arizona, and Thom Tillis in NC are also going to drive down his numbers. Gardener is dead in the water, MaSally is toast and the RNC is trying to throw Tillis a lifeline. You also have the RNC abandoning the Minnesota Senate race for example But then when you dig into the Biden vs Trump numbers Biden is currently up 49-44 in Minnesota. If Trump is still trailing by 5 points by September 25th he's in trouble. In 2016, 2.7 million votes were cast in Minnesota. 5% of 2.7 million is 135,000. Where does he make up 135,000 votes? He doesn't. And you can bet Clay Travis that Dem turnout will be higher than 2016 so the Trump campaign problem is larger than 135,000 votes.

So let's say Biden loses Wisconsin but picks up Arizona because Mark Kelly knocks out McSally, Biden wins on his coattails and because of the Massive growth in Maricopa County. Dems have register, 26,000 new voters, there and lean Republican registers voter count is down 5,000.
So Biden loses Wisconsin, wins Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan = 270. Oh, wait Biden loses Wisconson, and Pennsylvania but wins Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina = 270. Wait he loses North Carolina but picks up Florida = 270

This isn't 2016 Trump can't define Biden like he did Clinton. Calling his a socialist doesn't stick because he defeated a socialist. The Hunter Biden thing never stuck, He can't tie Biden to China without opening up himself and family to the same thing. The Tara Read allegation fell apart I'll see your "Sleepy Joe" and laydown a "Inject yourself with bleach"

 

[BreatheUT]

Just let Carlos do his thing. He brings the poll data.

I choose polls over facts.

 

[volinbham]

Dems actively rooting against the economy, America
The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading

Stated in black and white. Pitiful.

 

[volinbham]

RCP Average: National: Biden 48.4 (+5.5) Trump 42.9
Pennsylvania: Biden 48.3 (+6.5) Trump 41.8
Michigan: Biden 46.5 (+5.5) Trump 41.0
Arizona: Biden 48.2 (+4.0) Trump 44.2
Florida: Biden 48.3 (+3.3) Trump 45.0 .
Wisconsin: Biden 46.0 (+2.7) Trump 43.3

A lot of people here and in the Trump campaign believe that this is 2016 again or the overall goal of the Trump campaign is to turn 2020 into 2016. The problem with this strategy is that Biden isn't Clinton. Trump isn't He's not running against the person who was, fairly or unfairly, the most disliked and mistrusted nominee in American history. Trump's play is the same as the 2016 label Biden and Obama the boogeyman, sow doesn't within the Dem Party that suppress voter turnout and as Steve Bannon said " Just throw random Sh*t against the wall and hope people see it." The problem with this strategy is that Trump is the incumbent. He's not this new sparking object. America knows what he is and doesn't like it. Trump's approval rating is underwater 12 points at Approve 43% Disapprove 55%and that's from Rasmussen polls. Then you have to include the incumbent Senators who are hated in their home states like Corey Gardener in CO, Martha MaSally in Arizona, and Thom Tillis in NC are also going to drive down his numbers. Gardener is dead in the water, MaSally is toast and the RNC is trying to throw Tillis a lifeline. You also have the RNC abandoning the Minnesota Senate race for example But then when you dig into the Biden vs Trump numbers Biden is currently up 49-44 in Minnesota. If Trump is still trailing by 5 points by September 25th he's in trouble. In 2016, 2.7 million votes were cast in Minnesota. 5% of 2.7 million is 135,000. Where does he make up 135,000 votes? He doesn't. And you can bet Clay Travis that Dem turnout will be higher than 2016 so the Trump campaign problem is larger than 135,000 votes.

So let's say Biden loses Wisconsin but picks up Arizona because Mark Kelly knocks out McNally, Biden wins on his coattails and because of the Massive growth in Maricopa County. Dems have register, 26,000 new voters, there and lean Republican registers voter count is down 5,000.
So Biden loses Wisconsin, wins Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan = 270. Oh, wait Biden loses Wisconson, and Pennsylvania but wins Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina = 270. Wait he loses North Carolina but picks up Florida = 270

This isn't 2016 Trump can't define Biden like he did Clinton. Calling his a socialist doesn't stick because he defeated a socialist. The Hunter Biden thing never stuck, He can't tie Biden to China without opening up himself and family to the same thing. The Tara Read allegation fell apart I'll see your "Sleepy Joe" and laydown a "Inject yourself with bleach"

Long way to go. Important factors: pace of economic recovery, choice of VP (Abrams will not inspire confidence in the midwest), Biden in public - Trump is a known, current Biden isn't old Biden; his exposure could change things.

IOW, polling is close enough that this race is way too early to call.

 

[DC_Vol]

Long way to go. Important factors: pace of economic recovery, choice of VP (Abrams will not inspire confidence in the midwest), Biden in public - Trump is a known, current Biden isn't old Biden; his exposure could change things.

IOW, polling is close enough that this race is way too early to call.

My prediction is Biden will be polling ahead right up to the day before the election.

 

[LouderVol]

You are calling Barack Obama's Vice President for 8 years a "racist"? Makes perfect sense.

Biden is friends with a black guy so he isnt racist?

I thought using the token black friend excuse was racist?

 

[LouderVol]

You made up your mind long before you came at me about Pete. So no, it isn't going to matter what I say. You aren't going to change your mind, so no point in hashing it out.

Sure there is. If Amash came out and supported a racist I would dang well want to know why, and I wouldnt see anything wrong with people questioning Amash about who he supports.

You could at least prove to be consistent within your own world/argument. It either matters to you, or it doesnt.

Come on, dont be a Bernie Boy and turn off the virtue signaling and purity tests when it comes to your idol.

 

[LouderVol]

When you don’t use words “sorry” or “apologize” the sincerity your apology will be called into question.

I dont even think he said he was wrong, only thing I got from it is that he "shouldnt have said that".

It's not like it was a slip of the tongue or something, where he apologises right after. He was on one of his self righteous rants and he never thought he be called on it.

 

[carlos86]

My prediction is Biden will be polling ahead right up to the day before the election.

If the polling in battleground states are within 3 points Trump wins. 4 points or more and Biden wins.

 

[LouderVol]

What are we going to complain about if we ever have a president who doesn’t golf? Lol

Vote for me. I promise I wont play a single hole. I might get drunk and drive the golf carts around, but that's as close as I come.

Maybe some putt putt. Maybe.

 

[DC_Vol]

If the polling in battleground states are within 3 points Trump wins. 4 points or more and Biden wins.

Sounds reasonable.

 

[carlos86]

Speaking of polling. RNC internal polling from North Carolina Trump was up by 3 and Tom Tillis was up 1 last week.

 

[LouderVol]

Last I checked, the Republicans controlled 26 state's U.S. House delegations, so they'd likely win the tie even though: Biden would have more votes overall and more support from the House overall. In this scenario a single congressman from Wyoming would have the same power as California's entire delegation.

United STATES not United Citizens

 

[GoBigOrangeUT]

Vote for me. I promise I wont play a single hole. I might get drunk and drive the golf carts around, but that's as close as I come.

Maybe some putt putt. Maybe.

I thought that’s what golf was? Lol

 

[Rifleman]

Sure there is. If Amash came out and supported a racist I would dang well want to know why, and I wouldnt see anything wrong with people questioning Amash about who he supports.

You could at least prove to be consistent within your own world/argument. It either matters to you, or it doesnt.

Come on, dont be a Bernie Boy and turn off the virtue signaling and purity tests when it comes to your idol.

Since "conservatives" get to turn off concerns about federal spending, insistence on small government, and pious calls for ethical integrity in the White House with every other POTUS, why can't Amash get a little of that hypocrisy action despite leaving the party?

 

[LouderVol]

Since "conservatives" get to turn off concerns about federal spending, insistence on small government, and pious calls for ethical integrity in the White House with every other POTUS, why can't Amash get a little of that hypocrisy action despite leaving the party?

Cause he voted against pretty much all of that? I am sure there are specifics where I disagree with him. Bring me something specific and i will look at it.
He isnt perfect by any stretch, and that has never been my requirement for voting for him.

I have no problem calling him out where it's due. Like this campaign, it was a crap move to throw his name out there and then do nothing with it and not be prepared for it.

I am not blaming Buttigieg for the failings of the party, nor Trump or Biden. The parties can and have failed, the candidates have and will fail. I see no issue with being able to call out yours in order to hold a consistent basis.

Normally zepp is better than an off handed 'you wouldnt understand' while he storms up to his room.

 

[golfballs]

Speaking of polling. RNC internal polling from North Carolina Trump was up by 3 and Tom Tillis was up 1 last week.

Bruh

 

[hog88]

Cause he voted against pretty much all of that? I am sure there are specifics where I disagree with him. Bring me something specific and i will look at it.
He isnt perfect by any stretch, and that has never been my requirement for voting for him.

I have no problem calling him out where it's due. Like this campaign, it was a crap move to throw his name out there and then do nothing with it and not be prepared for it.

I am not blaming Buttigieg for the failings of the party, nor Trump or Biden. The parties can and have failed, the candidates have and will fail. I see no issue with being able to call out yours in order to hold a consistent basis.

Normally zepp is better than an off handed 'you wouldnt understand' while he storms up to his room.

In all actuality he's been a pretty ineffective representative for his district, other than naming some post offices he hasn't gotten much passed in his 9-10 years in office.

 

[LouderVol]

In all actuality he's been a pretty ineffective representative for his district, other than naming some post offices he hasn't gotten much passed in his 9-10 years in office.

Thats why being an incumbent is great.

I know he has authored some stuff, and with the way our government is set up the rest of the aholes not supporting him is a good thing.

Honest question, how much does the average Congress person pass that directly impact their district beyond pork?

Because I think your complaint boils down to " Amash is a failure because he isnt as corrupt as the guys I bash on here everyday".

It's a part of that overall failure of the system. You either play party politics or nothing happens. And what does happen is guaranteed to be crap.

 

[hog88]

Thats why being an incumbent is great.

I know he has authored some stuff, and with the way our government is set up the rest of the aholes not supporting him is a good thing.

Honest question, how much does the average Congress person pass that directly impact their district beyond pork?

Because I think your complaint boils down to " Amash is a failure because he isnt as corrupt as the guys I bash on here everyday".

It's a part of that overall failure of the system. You either play party politics or nothing happens. And what does happen is guaranteed to be crap.

I look at them like I look at a salesman, it doesn't matter how good of a product, service or idea you have if you can't sell the SOB. A salesman that can't make a sale is ineffective.

 

[LouderVol]

I look at them like I look at a salesman, it doesn't matter how good of a product, service or idea you have if you can't sell the SOB. A salesman that can't make a sale is ineffective.

I dont care if Kennedy Era Marylin Monroe is giving out lap dances, no one should be buying most of the crap coming from DC.

I guess I am still an idealist and not willing to accept crap bills for the sake of bills. I would rather see nothing, than bad product. I want someone who actually represents my general political goals. It's why I havent voted for any of the clowns.

And I am shocked to hear you say this (read you type this?) With how often you rail on voting out incumbents.

 

[hog88]

I dont care if Kennedy Era Marylin Monroe is giving out lap dances, no one should be buying most of the crap coming from DC.

I guess I am still an idealist and not willing to accept crap bills for the sake of bills. I would rather see nothing, than bad product. I want someone who actually represents my general political goals. It's why I havent voted for any of the clowns.

And I am shocked to hear you say this (read you type this?) With how often you rail on voting out incumbents.

Amash has good ideas but can't get them passed, thus he is ineffective.

It's not about all the crap that comes out of DC, there's no questions about that. It's the fact he can't convince enough of his fellow legislators that what they are passing is crap and HIS ideas are better.

 

[volinbham]

Biden VP wildcard