2023 NCAA Post Season (HOSTING) Discussion Thread - Merged

Will the Vols make it to NCAA Tournament in 2023

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    122
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#476
#476
preacherman20 said:
Has there ever been seven or all eight of the super regionals could be won by an SEC team. I was told they intentionally build it so that there are two super regionals that could not be won by SEC teams.
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I went all the way back to 2000. There was never a year in which 8 teams from the SEC could make the CWS, but there were 9 years where the SEC could have had 7 teams in, with the most recent time being 2 years ago. 9 teams from the SEC were in the tournament, and the only potential SEC pairings in the Supers would have been Tennessee vs LSU and Arkansas v Alabama.

Other tidbits:
- 4 is the most # of National Seed bids the SEC has gotten. It's happened 4 times since 2000, all of which being 2016 or later (not too surprising since the SEC expansion was in 2013)
- 7 is the most # of regional host bids the SEC has gotten, achieved only once in 2016. Every team from the SEC that made the tournament was a host.
- Back in 2002, they put Alabama and Auburn in the same regional. What's up with that?
 
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#477
#477
Latest projections from D1. No changes as it relates to Tennessee. I do find it hilarious that Alabama is now the projected #10 regional host while the Vols are left out of the picture entirely. Outside of RPI, what exactly about their resume is that different from ours? Just the fact they survived a flukey single elimination game to get to Double Elim and we didn’t? We really putting that much stock in Hoover?

 
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#478
#478
TheMookieMonster said:
Latest projections from D1. No changes as it relates to Tennessee. I do find it hilarious that Alabama is now the projected #10 regional host while the Vols are left out of the picture entirely. Outside of RPI, what exactly about their resume is that different from ours? Just the fact they survived a flukey single elimination game to get to Double Elim and we didn’t? We really putting that much stock in Hoover?

Click to expand...

I know eventually we have to say it is what it is no matter how we feel
 
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#480
#480
TheMookieMonster said:
Latest projections from D1. No changes as it relates to Tennessee. I do find it hilarious that Alabama is now the projected #10 regional host while the Vols are left out of the picture entirely. Outside of RPI, what exactly about their resume is that different from ours? Just the fact they survived a flukey single elimination game to get to Double Elim and we didn’t? We really putting that much stock in Hoover?

Click to expand...

I wonder if being a regional host was something Brad Bohannon would have bet on prior to this season...
 
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#481
#481
wtmvol said:
I went all the way back to 2000. There was never a year in which 8 teams from the SEC could make the CWS, but there were 9 years where the SEC could have had 7 teams in, with the most recent time being 2 years ago. 9 teams from the SEC were in the tournament, and the only potential SEC pairings in the Supers would have been Tennessee vs LSU and Arkansas v Alabama.

Other tidbits:
- 4 is the most # of National Seed bids the SEC has gotten. It's happened 4 times since 2000, all of which being 2016 or later (not too surprising since the SEC expansion was in 2013)
- 7 is the most # of regional host bids the SEC has gotten, achieved only once in 2016. Every team from the SEC that made the tournament was a host.
- Back in 2002, they put Alabama and Auburn in the same regional. What's up with that?
Click to expand...
thank you. That is the answer to the question I was asking.
 
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#482
#482
wtmvol said:
I wonder if being a regional host was something Brad Bohannon would have bet on prior to this season...
Click to expand...
That's funny but I say that situation happens a lot no one knows about in sports players and coaches betting on their on teams really easy to do just need a middle man or woman to be politically correct.
 
#483
#483
wtmvol said:
I went all the way back to 2000. There was never a year in which 8 teams from the SEC could make the CWS, but there were 9 years where the SEC could have had 7 teams in, with the most recent time being 2 years ago. 9 teams from the SEC were in the tournament, and the only potential SEC pairings in the Supers would have been Tennessee vs LSU and Arkansas v Alabama.

Other tidbits:
- 4 is the most # of National Seed bids the SEC has gotten. It's happened 4 times since 2000, all of which being 2016 or later (not too surprising since the SEC expansion was in 2013)
- 7 is the most # of regional host bids the SEC has gotten, achieved only once in 2016. Every team from the SEC that made the tournament was a host.
- Back in 2002, they put Alabama and Auburn in the same regional. What's up with that?
Click to expand...
Dayum, Duder! Thank you so very much! Can I share this?
 
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#485
#485
I ran some numbers with analytics to try and find the most deserving host teams out of the top 25 RPI. the formula was pretty simple, I used Warren Nolan's Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 system giving teams 4 points for Q1 wins, 3 for Q2, 2 for Q3, and 1 for Q4. i also added 1 point for Q1 loss, subtracted 1 for Q2 loss, subtracted 2 for Q3 loss, and subtracted 4 for Q4 loss. the next number i would calculate is their home and road record giving 2 points for home wins, subtracting 2 for home losses, giving 3 points for road wins, subtracting 1 for road losses, giving 2 for neutral wins, and subtracting 2 for neutral losses. the final points would come from strength of schedule with points being awarded on a scale with taking a team's strength of schedule, subtracting it from 100, and that is how many points they would be rewarded. for example, number 1 would get 99 points and 34 would get 66. I also to even out the playing field would multiply mid-major teams final sums by 1.1.
Based on all of this the teams that should host are
1- Wake Forest 295 pts
2- Clemson 291 pts
3- Florida 289 pts
4- LSU 289 pts
5- Arkansas 287 pts
6- Kentucky 282 pts
7- Vanderbilt 272 pts
8- Coastal Carolina 267.3 pts
9- South Carolina 267 pts
10- Alabama 261 pts
11- Auburn 247 pts
12- Virginia 245 pts
13- Stanford 242 pts
14- North Carolina State 239 pts
15- Tennessee 236 pts
16- Indiana State 234.3 pts
just missed the cut
17- Southern Miss 233.2 pts
18- Duke 229 pts
19- Boston College 227 pts
20- West Virginia 223 pts
21- Miami 220 pts
22- Dallas Baptist 211.2 pts
23-Oklahoma State 204 pts
24-Campbell 181.5 pts
25- Uconn 178.2
 
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#486
#486
MIbpwE.gif
 
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#487
#487
TheMookieMonster said:
Latest projections from D1. No changes as it relates to Tennessee. I do find it hilarious that Alabama is now the projected #10 regional host while the Vols are left out of the picture entirely. Outside of RPI, what exactly about their resume is that different from ours? Just the fact they survived a flukey single elimination game to get to Double Elim and we didn’t? We really putting that much stock in Hoover?

Click to expand...


I’m sorry. I don’t get Kentucky as a host. I really don’t.

You all have been very patient with me in explaining the RPI….which still shows Kentucky with a higher RPI than Florida.

But, I don’t get losing 6 of 10 conference weekends, but having Elon and Morehead State in the non conference makes all the difference in the world.

I will forever not understand this
 
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#488
#488
99gator said:
I’m sorry. I don’t get Kentucky as a host. I really don’t.

You all have been very patient with me in explaining the RPI….which still shows Kentucky with a higher RPI than Florida.

But, I don’t get losing 6 of 10 conference weekends, but having Elon and Morehead State in the non conference makes all the difference in the world.

I will forever not understand this
Click to expand...

And if they play in the day and it’s not raining, Kentucky will have little chance of winning a region
 
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#489
#489
99gator said:
I’m sorry. I don’t get Kentucky as a host. I really don’t.

You all have been very patient with me in explaining the RPI….which still shows Kentucky with a higher RPI than Florida.

But, I don’t get losing 6 of 10 conference weekends, but having Elon and Morehead State in the non conference makes all the difference in the world.

I will forever not understand this
Click to expand...

Your guess is as good as mine. I’m not trying to make excuses for the Vols, as we only have ourselves to blame for not hosting. That being said I can’t get behind the idea that Kentucky and Alabama have demonstrably better resumes than Tennessee and are deserving of hosts. Even Auburn’s resume isn’t really much different. RPI is important, but formulas are inherently flawed as we’ve seen. Out of the 9 SEC potential hosts, Kentucky and South Carolina should be the odd men out regardless of their high RPI and Tennessee should be hosting. How you finish a season should have some weight and Tennessee finished incredibly strong outside of a flukey, monsoon level single elim game while Kentucky and USC Jr. had abysmal closed to the season.
 
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#492
#492
99gator said:
I’m sorry. I don’t get Kentucky as a host. I really don’t.

You all have been very patient with me in explaining the RPI….which still shows Kentucky with a higher RPI than Florida.

But, I don’t get losing 6 of 10 conference weekends, but having Elon and Morehead State in the non conference makes all the difference in the world.

I will forever not understand this
Click to expand...

Elon and Indiana State…and Indiana, UL, and Xavier in midweek games.

But UK played a total of 3! games against a team with a losing record. UF played about 14.

As I’ve said, TV needs to stop playing teams like Alabama A&M.
 
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#493
#493
VolGee4 said:
Elon and Indiana State…and Indiana, UL, and Xavier in midweek games.

But UK played a total of 3! games against a team with a losing record. UF played about 14.

As I’ve said, TV needs to stop playing teams like Alabama A&M.
Click to expand...

You can't predict how certain teams do from year to year. Indiana State does not typically improve one's strength of schedule. So, in another year, Kentucky's schedule would be crap. It just so happens that in this particular year, some of their opponents look good on paper.

I have personal biases that I will admit.

1. Teams from the South are better than the North. So, when looking at schedules, I'll take the Pepsi challenge with all of these small schools from the state of Florida over teams like Xavier every day of the week and twice on Sunday. It's also why I would tell people not to sleep on Stanford or the teams from the Pac 12. There is too much talent out in California for several of those squads not to be legit. If it's a Texas school, a California school, or a Florida school, by and large you have to take them seriously.

2. I put way, way more weight on what happens in weekend games than mid-week games.

So, right off the bat, scheduling a bunch of Northern teams and using that as a basis to claim schedule strength doesn't wash with me.

As such, the conference schedule is a big deal. Well, I'll be damned. They won only 4 of 10 weekend series.

Compare that to Florida that is the conference co-champion for crying out loud. They won 8 of 10 weekend series. They also won a weekend series over Miami. They are 15-8 against the RPI top 20 (if we are going to use the rpi as a legit measurement).

At this point, I really want to see Florida win the SEC tournament to see if that would be enough to pass Kentucky in the RPI.
 
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#494
#494
99gator said:
You can't predict how certain teams do from year to year. Indiana State does not typically improve one's strength of schedule. So, in another year, Kentucky's schedule would be crap. It just so happens that in this particular year, some of their opponents look good on paper.

I have personal biases that I will admit.

1. Teams from the South are better than the North. So, when looking at schedules, I'll take the Pepsi challenge with all of these small schools from the state of Florida over teams like Xavier every day of the week and twice on Sunday. It's also why I would tell people not to sleep on Stanford or the teams from the Pac 12. There is too much talent out in California for several of those squads not to be legit. If it's a Texas school, a California school, or a Florida school, by and large you have to take them seriously.

2. I put way, way more weight on what happens in weekend games than mid-week games.

So, right off the bat, scheduling a bunch of Northern teams and using that as a basis to claim schedule strength doesn't wash with me.

As such, the conference schedule is a big deal. Well, I'll be damned. They won only 4 of 10 weekend series.

Compare that to Florida that is the conference co-champion for crying out loud. They won 8 of 10 weekend series. They also won a weekend series over Miami. They are 15-8 against the RPI top 20 (if we are going to use the rpi as a legit measurement).

At this point, I really want to see Florida win the SEC tournament to see if that would be enough to pass Kentucky in the RPI.
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I’ve never said UK’s resume is better than UF’s. But of course, each year, teams are different and can change a SOS. Indiana State is 9 in the RPI- that is huge to play them and sweep them. Indiana State won 6 P5 games, including Vandy, and the Missouri Valley isn’t bad.

Midweek games against top RPI teams help, especially when your conference is so strong. UF played a 3 game series against Siena, who is 14-41. UK played just 5 games that ended in Q4. UF played 15. That’s the difference.
 
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#495
#495
VolGee4 said:
I’ve never said UK’s resume is better than UF’s. But of course, each year, teams are different and can change a SOS. Indiana State is 9 in the RPI- that is huge to play them and sweep them. Indiana State won 6 P5 games, including Vandy, and the Missouri Valley isn’t bad.

Midweek games against top RPI teams help, especially when your conference is so strong. UF played a 3 game series against Siena, who is 14-41. UK played just 5 games that ended in Q4. UF played 15. That’s the difference.
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The comparison was to Florida though.

For me, it's the equivalent of having some mathematical metric that a football team that is 9-3 is ranked higher than a team that is 12-0 from the same conference that plays that same competition (including each other) because the 9-3 team has better cupcake games.

When in addition to all of that, the 9-3 team's schedule looks good because they played a 10-2 UTEP.
 
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#498
#498
99gator said:
The comparison was to Florida though.

For me, it's the equivalent of having some mathematical metric that a football team that is 9-3 is ranked higher than a team that is 12-0 from the same conference that plays that same competition (including each other) because the 9-3 team has better cupcake games.

When in addition to all of that, the 9-3 team's schedule looks good because they played a 10-2 UTEP.
Click to expand...

In football, 3 games is a huge percentage of the overall record. UF and UK have a 5 game difference in the loss column over 55+ games and 3 game difference in Q1 wins.

I’ve always said the RPI is flawed. But your original post questioned its calculation, and I’ve laid it out there. It’s simple to see how UK is ahead with their schedule. They played very few bad teams, and the UK coach did a heck of a job with the schedule. But the committee doesn’t just go right down the RPI for seeding purposes.
 
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