This is a really nuanced territory, but I don’t want to contribute to the ambiguity. If I were forced to make a call right now, I think we’re a one again after the Arizona loss. I think our win list and lack of bad losses puts us out ahead of UNC. I think Arizona really hurt themselves last night. That said, this is a fragile one seed, if we have it. Head to head is a real thing and a real topic, regardless of the other more important metrics. Storylines, blue blood programs and the desire to keep the big conferences happy are all real inputs. I guarantee you from first person accounts that the Darwinism of selecting teams on narratives and biases happens. Calling that a “conspiracy” is lazy, reductive and ignorant of the real world. When GM/Pontiac was the official sponsor in the early 2000’s they were “talked through” the bracket prior to its release every year. Why? Because they made a 50 million dollar media buy. That’s why. That’s not a “conspiracy”. That’s a fact. Lunardi is almost exactly the creature you describe. He is a hack and not very good at his job. He makes brackets that have direct rule conflicts with pairings that will never happen. He is also an ABC/ESPN/Disney employee. He gets an early look via conversations with the major networks. His brackets are suddenly very good in the last weekend. I’ll also note that he recently echoed my observation that the committee’s desire to have a one from the West in the Western region would bias them to give it to Arizona if they could justify it. Again that is a fact. At this point, they absolutely cannot justify putting Arizona on that line. If they can, they will. The media market, time zones and regional biases are real. In addition to the national advertisers, there are also regional and local advertisers. They want a team from there area. That’s a fact. They don’t need to lobby anyone. The networks’ business model is pretty simple. Advertisers pay the bills. They love blue blood stories. They hate when big programs with big fanbases lose. Right now, this minute, I think that’s our one. It’s a fragile one. That isn’t a conspiracy. It isn’t BVS. It’s economic Darwinism. We need to win a game and maybe two this week. It’d be great if we won all of them. We do not need to exit early (and) have UNC pick up more Q1 wins or have Arizona win their tournament in the face of us losing early. I’m not going to step in and have this conversation ten more times. I can tell you unequivocally that they sit with their rules and metrics every year and generally follow them, but there is pressure and an understanding of who they serve. They step outside those guidelines when it is gray. It has quite literally happened to us before. I think we’re a one today. I think it’s fragile.
