50-50 chance of catastrophic radiation leak?

#126
#126
I think now they are in the process of throwing anything that might work against the wall and seeing if it sticks.
 
#127
#127
TennTradition said:
The information is too fractured right now to know if it worked, is working, or if they even are doing it at the moment.
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How far is it from the shore? Could they not position fire fighting boats near the site, aim the water hose at the reactors and set it and then leave for a while while it just shot water at the reactors.


None of that really sounds scientfic
 
#128
#128
Volst53 said:
How far is it from the shore? Could they not position fire fighting boats near the site, aim the water hose at the reactors and set it and then leave for a while while it just shot water at the reactors.


None of that really sounds scientfic
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It appears to be close, but the scale can be skewed by the massive size of the reactor housing/secondary containment. My *guess* is that it is too far. It's a good question about their use though.

Note that the helicopters, or fire trucks, or whatever spray is used isn't just a general spray on the reactor housing. I think they are calling the whole building the reactor when they say they are trying to dump water on reactor 3. From my perspective, it would do very little good to try to cool down the reactor vessel by dumping water on the primary containment structure. My thought is that these operations are aimed specifically at cooling and refilling the spent fuel ponds. So, the aim can't be random. You need to hit the pond itself.
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#129
#129
There are reports here and there that a power line is being strung to try to restore power, specifically to reactor 3. I'm uncertain of whether or not the existing cooling systems can now be used, even if they restore power. Regardless, restoring power wouldn't be a bad thing.
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#130
#130
I long ago made a deliberate choice to stay the hell out of the politics forum, but I have to say that this thread (and the others on this topic) are fantastic. I'm not sure how I noticed it in here, but I'm glad I did. Thanks for the insight.
 
#131
#131
Vercingetorix said:
I long ago made a deliberate choice to stay the hell out of the politics forum, but I have to say that this thread (and the others on this topic) are fantastic. I'm not sure how I noticed it in here, but I'm glad I did. Thanks for the insight.
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Come join us. I like 99.9% of the guys here even if they disagree with me.

Edit: pm a mod and nominate TennTradition for VN'S Atomic GURU.
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#132
#132
There are some interesting responses being taken right now.

France has decided to get its nationals out, including the use of charter jets.

The UK is urging its nationals in Tokyo and points north to move south.

The US is advising all nationals within 50 miles of the Fukushima plant to evacuate (consistent with NRC guidelines for an accident of this magnitude).

My sense is that the decisions aren't being made because the situation is suddenly dramatically worse, but is really just reflective of these governments catching ip to the magnitude of the situation that is already known to be playing out.

The French move seems excessive, but the UK move is reasonable in my mind. While I feel Tokyo would be safe to be in for now (and for done time), evacuating quickly from a city that densely populated if the situation were to turn in a hurry would be difficult.
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#135
#135
TennTradition said:
It appears to be close, but the scale can be skewed by the massive size of the reactor housing/secondary containment. My *guess* is that it is too far. It's a good question about their use though.

Note that the helicopters, or fire trucks, or whatever spray is used isn't just a general spray on the reactor housing. I think they are calling the whole building the reactor when they say they are trying to dump water on reactor 3. From my perspective, it would do very little good to try to cool down the reactor vessel by dumping water on the primary containment structure. My thought is that these operations are aimed specifically at cooling and refilling the spent fuel ponds. So, the aim can't be random. You need to hit the pond itself.
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I agree. I had no insight into how feasible that was though. Seems like it has just as much chance of sending it to the floor of the facility.
 
#137
#137
Hey military, if there is any way we can get some sort of giant fan off Japan's east coast and redirect this radioactive dust squarely on Kim Jong Il, that'd be grrrreeeat. kthx
 
#138
#138
NRC: No water in spent fuel pool of Japan plant - Yahoo! Finance
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant, but Japanese officials denied it.

If NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko is correct, this would mean there's nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down. The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area.

Jaczko did not say Wednesday how the information was obtained, but the NRC and U.S. Department of Energy both have experts on site at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex of six reactors. He said the spent fuel pool of the complex's Unit 4 reactor has lost water.
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#139
#139
I'm still not worried about the health of the population, but this situation just keeps managing to get worse. I'm surprise everybody is talking about new plants and not the license extensions on our older plants.

And the talk of the spent fuel pool scares me the most.

And my gut instinct is that any talks on this reaching the west coast is just silly.
 
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#140
#140
Also, I'm confused. I assume the spent fuel rods are housed in at least the secondary containment, and I didn't think the secondary containment on reactor 4 was blown.
 
#141
#141
JayVols said:
Come join us. I like 99.9% of the guys here even if they disagree with me.

Edit: pm a mod and nominate TennTradition for VN'S Atomic GURU.
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It's not the verbal combat that has caused me to scrupulously avoid the politics forum; it's the time sink. I spend enough time on this message board as it is, and I'm not even arguing about anything that matters at all. If I started mixing it up in the politics forum too my kids would probably starve.
 
#142
#142
Vercingetorix said:
It's not the verbal combat that has caused me to scrupulously avoid the politics forum; it's the time sink. I spend enough time on this message board as it is, and I'm not even arguing about anything that matters at all. If I started mixing it up in the politics forum too my kids would probably starve.
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Lol..
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#143
#143
Weezy said:
Also, I'm confused. I assume the spent fuel rods are housed in at least the secondary containment, and I didn't think the secondary containment on reactor 4 was blown.
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It is believed that the rods became hot enough to produce hydrogen in the 4th floor of reactor 4. It collected enough to lead to a hydrogen explosion that ripped out part of the 4th floor along what I believe is the northwest corner. So, whatever is happening to that spent fuel pool is effectively open to the atmosphere.
 
#144
#144
Yes the rods are exposed, dangerously high radiation, and the water in the ponds has evaporated so they no longer have that to cool with. I was hoping they had started to get control but apparently it did get worse. There is a posibility of power cable to restart the cooling system.

Tokyo (CNN) -- Spent fuel rods in Unit 4 of Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have been exposed, resulting in the emission of "extremely high" levels of radiation, the head of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Wednesday.
"What we believe at this time is that there has been a hydrogen explosion in this unit due to an uncovering of the fuel in the fuel pool," Gregory Jaczko told a House energy and commerce subcommittee hearing. "We believe that secondary containment has been destroyed and there is no water in the spent fuel pool, and we believe that radiation levels are extremely high, which could possibly impact the ability to take corrective measures."
The water served to both cool the uranium fuel and shield it. But once the uranium fuel was no longer covered by water, the zirconium cladding that encases the fuel rods heated, generating hydrogen, said Robert Alvarez, senior scholar at the Institute for Policy Studies and a former official with the Department of Energy.
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#147
#147
Daddy Gee said:
new JAIF update

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300322727P.pdf
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It doesn't look like much has changed...but the radiation level that is reported has come down a fair amount.

What is interesting, to me, is that while the Japanese are getting hammered on the fact that the US NRC chairman was the one who announced the possibly dry spent fuel pool - this mornings JAIF report, if you go back and look at it, said that the liquid level was low and that damage to the rods in 4 was suspected. They put the information out there, it seems.
 
#149
#149
TennTradition said:
From the footage, it looks like they are having to fly so high that it is pretty tough to actually place any significant volume in the storage pool....
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That is what it looks like to me. Seems like they are just flying over and whatever gets in great. Not really even slowing down.
 
#150
#150
I wonder what the odds are of a complete meltdown of the core, another "Chernobyl" if you will. 50-50 seems too high.
 
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