50-50 chance of catastrophic radiation leak?

#151
#151
oklavol said:
I wonder what the odds are of a complete meltdown of the core, another "Chernobyl" if you will.
Click to expand...

Don't think anyone knows. They are being very tight with what they let out. You would figure they would let out more and seek help and knowledge of other countries.
 
#152
#152
oklavol said:
I wonder what the odds are of a complete meltdown of the core, another "Chernobyl" if you will.
Click to expand...

The odds are reasonably high of a complete meltdown of at least one reactor, possibly several, IMO. We know that each is partially melted down at this point. If cooling can be restored, then it is possible that a complete meltdown may be averted - but even if the power line arrives, I'm not sure that the systems will be ready to go. It will take some work, and how much is likely unknown at this point.

With that said, that doesn't mean that the chances of another Chernobyl are quite high. From a reactor standpoint, it is possible that any meltdown could be contained, and even if not, the large source of fuel that was present at Chernobyl to burn (graphite) isn't present here.

Now, from a spent fuel pond drying up and burning angle - in a worst case, that could possibly look a lot like Chernobyl in the local area. Again, though, the fire shouldn't be as intense, which means the affected area shouldn't be as large. There is a US report that suggests that the affected area from a burning storage pool could be 29,000 square miles. That's big. I haven't read the report, so I can't comment on its applicability; however, that number is out there.
 
Last edited:
#153
#153
Let me sum up what I believe the news told me this evening:

1) Reactor 4 was not running at the time of the quake. But that's bad, because it means that the most recently used fuel rods had been transferred to what amounts to a cubbyhole above the reactor chamber, with a bunch of other rods. This increases heat, and now the water surrounding the rods in the cubbyhole is gone, leaving the rods exposed. Their casing has caught on fire 3 times, throwing of cesium. Since the building blew up, that is floating around.

2) The radiation levels created by that means there is a deadly level of radiation (within period of as little as 3 minutes) 100 yards or so around 4. Which makes it that much more difficult to deal with the other reactors.

3) Radiation in Tokyo has grudgingly been acknowledged to be "elevated." Some airlines have stopped flights there, including Lufthansa. So people that can get out are getting nervous.

4) The Japanese government has flat out refused to admit how bad it is getting. Reports now are coming from US consultants we have lent them who are on scene and saying no more water in 4, even though the Japanese say there is some.

5) The radiation level I heard is 5-10 REM an hour, which compares to most workers being allowed to be exposed to 1.5 REM for the year.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#154
#154
oklavol said:
I wonder what the odds are of a complete meltdown of the core, another "Chernobyl" if you will. 50-50 seems too high.
Click to expand...

They could already be close. At Three Mile Island, the fuel rods were partially exposed above the water line for only about 2 hours. Three years later, when the reactor was opened, everyone was shocked to see the extent of the partial meltdown. The exposure has been a lot longer here. Yes, the design of the rods has changed, they should last longer, etc....but there is a lot of damage to the core already done.
 
#155
#155
I've edited in bold....

lawgator1 said:
Let me sum up what I believe the news told me this evening:

1) Reactor 4 was not running at the time of the quake. But that's bad, because it means that the most recently used fuel rods had been transferred to what amounts to a cubbyhole above the reactor chamber, with a bunch of other rods. This increases heat, and now the water surrounding the rods in the cubbyhole is (very low, possibly) gone, leaving the rods (at least partially) exposed. Their casing has caught on fire 3 times, throwing of cesium. Since the building blew up, that is floating around.

There have been several fires. The first few were reported to be oil fires from the recirculation pumps. The truth of that report is unknown. I do not think that it has been confirmed that some of the rods are burning now, but it is suspected (at least).

2) The radiation levels created by that means there is a deadly level of radiation (within period of as little as 3 minutes) 100 yards or so around 4. Which makes it that much more difficult to deal with the other reactors.

Probably true.

3) Radiation in Tokyo has grudgingly been acknowledged to be "elevated." Some airlines have stopped flights there, including Lufthansa. So people that can get out are getting nervous.

The hesitation, IMO, isn't them not wanting to admit it. The hesitation is there because the levels, while higher, are very far below the numbers where you would expect health effects. They are also climbing fairly slowly. That doesn't mean they can't change - but the driver for that isn't in place at the moment (levels in the proximity of the plant haven't been climbing too much, though there are occasional spikes, if the operators are to be believed)


4) The Japanese government has flat out refused to admit how bad it is getting. Reports now are coming from US consultants we have lent them who are on scene and saying no more water in 4, even though the Japanese say there is some.

In some ways this is being overblown. Our NRC chairman said possibly/probably no water in the storage pool. However, as early as this morning, the Japanese were reporting that the water was low/very low in the storage pools of reactors 3/4. They even said that the rods in 4 were suspected of being damaged. Now, they didn't go out and ring alarm bells about it, but they did release it through their official agency (JAIF).

5) The radiation level I heard is 5-10 REM an hour, which compares to most workers being allowed to be exposed to 1.5 REM for the year.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

Those numbers were quoted by the former NRC commissioner from the days of Three Mile Island. I have no reason not to believe him, but I don't know where those numbers are coming from. Note that these are the levels *beside the reactors*. The numbers that the Japanese are reporting, 1-2 milirem/hr, are at the plant boundary.
 
#156
#156
Hello guys. I'm still learning all about the nuclear system and what not but I have another question.

They had on tv last night that the company that owns this company had lied about a safety audit if you will and provided false documents. Something to this nature never the less, cause the president and some other workers of the plant to resign.

A couple of years ago they were in deep about not putting a fire out and their excuse was the lines were to crowded and couldn't get through to the fire department. Countermeasure was to put a firefighting system in place and promise to do better.

I guess my question is with all the lies and slow forthcoming of information, could it be possible that the generators that failed had not been tested on the need to be basis or is there a regulation on that type of thing?

Also I work for a japanese company (honda) and it amazes me of how tight of a ship they run with their american companies that they would let this stuff slide withour taking it over?

Am I way off? Still learning..lol
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#157
#157
It's possible that maintenance was deficient; however, the diesel backup system apparently was flooded by the tsunami. I am sure that there is an active program for monitoring maintenance at the Japanese nuclear plants. Even with that, it is possible that some backup systems were not fully tested. That's just hard to say.
 
#158
#158
TennTradition said:
The odds are reasonably high of a complete meltdown of at least one reactor, possibly several, IMO. We know that each is partially melted down at this point. If cooling can be restored, then it is possible that a complete meltdown may be averted - but even if the power line arrives, I'm not sure that the systems will be ready to go. It will take some work, and how much is likely unknown at this point.

With that said, that doesn't mean that the chances of another Chernobyl are quite high. From a reactor standpoint, it is possible that any meltdown could be contained, and even if not, the large source of fuel that was present at Chernobyl to burn (graphite) isn't present here.

Now, from a spent fuel pond drying up and burning angle - in a worst case, that could possibly look a lot like Chernobyl in the local area. Again, though, the fire shouldn't be as intense, which means the affected area shouldn't be as large. There is a US report that suggests that the affected area from a burning storage pool could be 29,000 miles. That's big. I haven't read the report, so I can't comment on its applicability; however, that number is out there.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the summary. I was assuming with a meltdown of the core the concrete surrounding the core would be compromised and the radiation would leak out and there would be no way to contain. 29,000 is a huge area.
 
#159
#159
TennTradition said:
It's possible that maintenance was deficient; however, the diesel backup system apparently was flooded by the tsunami. I am sure that there is an active program for monitoring maintenance at the Japanese nuclear plants. Even with that, it is possible that some backup systems were not fully tested. That's just hard to say.
Click to expand...

All the money and technology they spent on containing radiation, you would think they could have come up with a better design for the cooling system that could withstand being flooded. Obviously they will learn from this in the future.
 
#163
#163
oklavol said:
Thanks for the summary. I was assuming with a meltdown of the core the concrete surrounding the core would be compromised and the radiation would leak out and there would be no way to contain. 29,000 is a huge area.
Click to expand...

First - I left out the SQUARE between 29,000 and miles...29,000 square miles. That's close to a 100 mile radius.

Second - The meltdown could pass through the primary containment if 1) it is already damaged (and the containments of 2 and 3 are believed to be damaged) or 2) a liner-melt-through occurs (failure of the primary containment). In either case, that doesn't necessarily mean Chernobyl without strong explosions or large fires to carry the radiation high into the atmosphere.
 
#164
#164
govols1864 said:
You think it will work. It is not like they can get close to it.
Click to expand...

First, to 53, the spray truck is basically a riot-control vehicle with a water cannon, if my understanding is correct.

To 1864, I worry about them being able to get close enough to make it all that effective. I do think that it has a higher probability of being successful - but it will come at greater risk to the operators. They may need to robotize the truck. If it weren't for the country already being tapped out by the quake/tsunami, that would have probably already happened.
 
#165
#165
TennTradition said:
First - I left out the SQUARE between 29,000 and miles...29,000 square miles. That's close to a 100 mile radius.

Second - The meltdown could pass through the primary containment if 1) it is already damaged (and the containments of 2 and 3 are believed to be damaged) or 2) a liner-melt-through occurs (failure of the primary containment). In either case, that doesn't necessarily mean Chernobyl without strong explosions or large fires to carry the radiation high into the atmosphere.
Click to expand...

What else is left to blow up that would make it a Chernobyl-esque situation?
 
#167
#167
I just heard the electric company was still in charge..shouldn't the government took over by now or no?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#169
#169
TennTradition said:
First, to 53, the spray truck is basically a riot-control vehicle with a water cannon, if my understanding is correct.

To 1864, I worry about them being able to get close enough to make it all that effective. I do think that it has a higher probability of being successful - but it will come at greater risk to the operators. They may need to robotize the truck. If it weren't for the country already being tapped out by the quake/tsunami, that would have probably already happened.
Click to expand...


Hey shouldnt you be on CNN or CBS answering questions about Nuclear Meltdowns instead of on volnation? :ermm:
 
#170
#170
This is a crazy thought and I'm sure it would never work, but why not make make a huge metal pipe drop it close to the pools by chopper and then start pumping water through the pipe.
 
#172
#172
VOLatile said:
What else is left to blow up that would make it a Chernobyl-esque situation?
Click to expand...

It's hard for me to get to a Chernobyl-type situation with regard to the power with which the radioactive material could be lifted into the atmosphere. Things that could exacerbate the situation are hydrogen explosions, steam explosions, and other general firs (for example, fuel from the pumps).
 
#173
#173
Hey TennTradiation....just wanted to say thanks for all the info and questions you are answering. I am personally looking at working at Watts Bar this summer doing an internship with Bechtel. I have learned alot from you. Again, thanks!:salute:
 
#174
#174
i'd say the odds are higher than 50% for a catastrophic leak at this point. Im scared by the huge disconnect from the information getting out to the public, and the channels its coming through to get there. Only time will tell the "true" story of whats going on there. As for the radiation levels, I cant stand how the information is getting presented. HUGE difference in dose and contamination.
 
#175
#175
Voltrapnbama said:
I just heard the electric company was still in charge..shouldn't the government took over by now or no?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

That is a common thought - however, the electric company knows this plant, their operators know the plant, etc. The government should be intimately tied in with the efforts at the plant (i.e., representatives there to oversee); but, I think that it is probably the right thing for the electric company to continue carrying out the efforts.

One thing that is unclear to me is how integrated the government is with the operations at the site.

I will say that they should be getting some manpower help at this point, though...for things that don't require direct knowledge of the plant.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top