All things STOCKS

[Jax_Vol]

It finally came to my attention that the "mid-cap growth fund," which I've had money in for years, underperforms the index, so why keep it there?

Should I cash out now? Or wait until a relatively better time?

I wouldn’t “cash” anything out. But, would consider moving into another fund. Are you with Vanguard, Fidelity, or who..? Roughly, how many years are u talking..

 

[Velo Vol]

I wouldn’t “cash” anything out. But, would consider moving into another fund. Are you with Vanguard, Fidelity, or who..? Roughly, how many years are u talking..

Pioneer Select Mid Cap Growth Fund Class A (PGOFX)

The money is at Amundi.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Pioneer Select Mid Cap Growth Fund Class A (PGOFX)

The money is at Amundi.

That fund is dogshit.....


Is that in your 401k?

 

[Jax_Vol]

Pioneer Select Mid Cap Growth Fund Class A (PGOFX)

The money is at Amundi.

Ok… let me think about that one. I’m searching for one myself.

 

[Velo Vol]

Ok… let me think about that one. I’m searching for one myself.

Raises the question: Why even buy mutual funds that will most likely underperform an index?

 

[Velo Vol]

That fund is dogshit.....


Is that in your 401k?

No.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Raises the question: Why even buy mutual funds that will most likely underperform an index?

you don’t. You buy a fund that is managed by non-restricted elite management team, and they will beat an index. For example, Fidelity Growth Company or Vanguard Primecap. Those are both closed due to excessive funds.

Index funds are great. I recommend VITAX. It is the information technology index.

I will be studying them tonight. Do you have a high risk tolerance?

 

[Go aeiou]

It finally came to my attention that the "mid-cap growth fund," which I've had money in for years, underperforms the index, so why keep it there?

Should I cash out now? Or wait until a relatively better time?

Is it actively managed?
That is the reason Vanguard index funds are popular. Managers aren't able to consistently outperform the indexes.
EDIT: Sorry I didn't see the other replies before posting. Reduntancy.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Mid cap? MDY ETF.

MDY: SPDR® S&P MIDCAP 400® ETF Trust

 

[Orange.]

you don’t. You buy a fund that is managed by non-restricted elite management team, and they will beat an index. For example, Fidelity Growth Company or Vanguard Primecap. Those are both closed due to excessive funds.

Index funds are great. I recommend VITAX. It is the information technology index.

I will be studying them tonight. Do you have a high risk tolerance?

I'd like to hear what you turn up as best managed funds open to new investors.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I'd like to hear what you turn up as best managed funds open to new investors.

Disclaimer: I am only a Vanguard and Fidelity guy. Getting late start today, but should have some selections by tomorrow night. I have high risk tolerance and swinging for fences with this selection(s). Much of my money is spread across the index technology and health sectors. Don't do banks, oil, any energy. Commerical real estate dicey since pandemic. Fidelity has a semiconductor fund that has been a big hit for me this year.

Only buy Admiral funds in Vanguard. Do get some exposure to everything with 500 Index. Small amount of international. No bonds unless Vanguard Explorer has a few.

Limited amount in ETF's. Mostly just old fashion mutual funds.

Vanguard will let new investors put $25k per year into Vanguard Primecap VPMCX. I highly recommend that one. Managers were magic for 25 years. Hit a little bump 2-3 years ago and I pulled too much out. That one is really not bad. I like Vanguard U.S. Growth VWUAX; also VIGAX. Fidelity Blue Chip Growth FBGRX.

 

[Orange.]

Disclaimer: I am only a Vanguard and Fidelity guy. Getting late start today, but should have some selections by tomorrow night. I have high risk tolerance and swinging for fences with this selection(s). Much of my money is spread across the index technology and health sectors. Don't do banks, oil, any energy. Commerical real estate dicey since pandemic. Fidelity has a semiconductor fund that has been a big hit for me this year.

Only buy Admiral funds in Vanguard. Do get some exposure to everything with 500 Index. Small amount of international. No bonds unless Vanguard Explorer has a few.

Do you -- or anyone here -- have thoughts on PRWAX?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Even though the S&P 400 (and 600 and 500) is an index and the benchmark used by actively managed mid cap funds for comparisons, I wouldn’t necessarily consider it to be passive. The funds that are modeled after or correlated to the S&P 400 are passive, but the index itself is “managed” by a committee.

Mid cap components of mid cap funds are kind of unusual. Individual equity names can be “promoted” to the S&P 500 for performing well. Those that underperform can be “demoted” to the S&P 600 (small cap). An “active” mid cap fund manager isn’t necessarily required to kick out the outperforming names. They can let them ride. They can also leave the worst companies out entirely. An individual investor could start with a fund that tracks the S&P 400 (MDY for example) and then add shares of high performing companies as they graduate out of the 400.

 

[Orange.]

Even though the S&P 400 (and 600 and 500) is an index and the benchmark used by actively managed mid cap funds for comparisons, I wouldn’t necessarily consider it to be passive. The funds that are modeled after or correlated to the S&P 400 are passive, but the index itself is “managed” by a committee.

Mid cap components of mid cap funds are kind of unusual. Individual equity names can be “promoted” to the S&P 500 for performing well. Those that underperform can be “demoted” to the S&P 600 (small cap). An “active” mid cap fund manager isn’t necessarily required to kick out the outperforming names. They can let them ride. They can also leave the worst companies out entirely. An individual investor could start with a fund that tracks the S&P 400 (MDY for example) and then add shares of high performing companies as they graduate out of the 400.

I seem to recall that SBNY was promoted to the S&P 400 last year

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I seem to recall that SBNY was promoted to the S&P 400 last year

SBNY was “promoted” in December 2021.

List of S&P 400 companies - Wikipedia

It’s crazy how many changes go on with the S&P400. Maybe the MDY ETF isn’t a very good idea with their best performing companies constantly being trimmed from the index. Same with the S&P600 (IJT, IJS). S&P500, NASDAQ100, and DJIA30 ETFs can keep the high performing names in the fund’s portfolios. The trillion dollar companies won’t get purged.

 

[Jax_Vol]

SBNY was “promoted” in December 2021.

List of S&P 400 companies - Wikipedia

It’s crazy how many changes go on with the S&P400. Maybe the MDY ETF isn’t a very good idea with their best performing companies constantly being trimmed from the index. Same with the S&P600 (IJT, IJS). S&P500, NASDAQ100, and DJIA30 ETFs can keep the high performing names in the fund’s portfolios. The trillion dollar companies won’t get purged.

My list is turning more into things I don't do.

So add, don't do value. Also, don't do mid-cap index funds.

I'm mostly upper right corner. Little exposure to lower right corner.

When it comes to picking individual stocks, I'll play most anything w/market cap above $1b. Want to really hit in that $1-30b range.

But, if I can something where demand exceeds supply, will jump in. For example, like Novo Nordisk with a $380b market cap; I just feel confident it is going up.

Also think that Apple and Microsoft are going to be ok despite being over a $1T. That is why I like VITAX. It is 40% of those two companies...which matches the index.

Do play a few retails. Ad based revenue companies are hard for me to judge.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Do you -- or anyone here -- have thoughts on PRWAX?

Love it! Great mix of tech and health. Expense slightly high, but I'm willing to pay that much for a well managed fund.

Good size. Outstanding turnover rate for the expense. The fund is small enough that they can be nimble for a mutual fund.

I'm had some success with my wife's stuff with T Rowe. Not an expert on them, but safe as far as I know from minimal dealings.

Just go play golf for five years, and that one will double.

 

[Velo Vol]

you don’t. You buy a fund that is managed by non-restricted elite management team, and they will beat an index. For example, Fidelity Growth Company or Vanguard Primecap. Those are both closed due to excessive funds.

Index funds are great. I recommend VITAX. It is the information technology index.

I will be studying them tonight. Do you have a high risk tolerance?

Highish?

Guess I should look at the other funds there before I sell the shares.

Mutual Funds

Right now I wouldn't want to put money in information technology. It's had a run and seems pricey.

 

[Orange.]

Highish?

Guess I should look at the other funds there before I sell the shares.

Mutual Funds

Right now I wouldn't want to put money in information technology. It's had a run and seems pricey.

What do like as opposed to IT? Just trying to learn.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Highish?

Guess I should look at the other funds there before I sell the shares.

Mutual Funds

Right now I wouldn't want to put money in information technology. It's had a run and seems pricey.

The big ones have carried the sector. It’s hard to guess if they’ll hold up and the laggards catch up or if the big ones deteriorate back to the crowd. The dot com bubble took everything down so there is lots of caution. But AMZN hasn’t kept up. AWS is one of the most important IT companies out there. I worry most about NVDA holding up and I really ought to lighten up on it. Earnings are expected 5/24 after the close.

I think that the AI mania resembles the dot com / internet / WWW insanity of two decades ago somewhat. Every earnings call has management dropping “AI bombs” at every opportunity.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What do like as opposed to IT? Just trying to learn.

One area of IT that I still like are companies that could benefit rather than be hurt by manufacturing being migrated out of China. Possibly AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC. Maybe Broadcom (AVGO) and even INTC. Intel is building a huge fab facility in the Midwest (Ohio iirc).

TSM scares me with the political climate and Warren Buffett souring on them. ASML is one of the best IT companies in the NASDAQ 100, but they’re not selling their high end products to China. So they are less exposed to pushback on the CCP’s nonsense.

IT names really need multiple revenue streams and/or own huge market shares to be comfortable LT holds. So many leading companies from the early 2000s have vanished (or have become small subsidiaries) as the industry evolved. Novell. Netscape. Read-Rite. AOL. Yahoo. EMC. Palm. 3COM. Cloud won’t be going anywhere (AMZN-AWS, MSFT, GOOGL), e-commerce is a LT trend (AMZN, WMT, FDX, UPS, probably AAPL, etc) and the advertising sellers (META, GOOGL) benefit from huge margins but advertising also suffers disproportionally in slow economies.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

With chip companies there are IDMs, fabless, and manufacturing companies (with some cross over or gray areas).

The top Integrated Device Manufacturers are Intel, Texas Instruments, and Samsung. They design and manufacture. They are less vulnerable to supply chain issues (except for raw materials).

QCOM, AMD, and NVDA are fabless. They contract with companies like Taiwan Semi to make their products. I doubt that China invaded Taiwan, but if they do those 3 will be in big trouble.

Global Foundries (GFS) is a pure play manufacturer. I would think that they can’t be benefiting from China being hung out to dry. I have no idea how far along they are building up manufacturing capacity outside of China.

The IDM gray areas are companies like IBM, ADI, MU, ON, and others. They’re vertically integrated but also contract a lot with 3rd parties.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

After Hours was pretty solid. About +0.3%.

I kind of want more selling pressure as I’m working on building some positions. Particularly financials and industrials. Maybe I’ll look for healthcare names. I’m watching EMR, ALLY, AXP, JPM, BAC, CVX, DIS, JXN, LPX, MMM, OXY, PNC, SCHW, UPS, URI, USB, WHR, WRK, CURE, FAS, ITA, USO, XLE, XLV, and others.

I really don’t like to trade right here. Markets have pulled back too much for me to be comfortable selling calls. But on days with the solid gains I really don’t care to sell puts either. There’s too much recession related negativity. Markets historically bottom about 70% or three quarters of the way into recessions and it hasn’t even officially begun yet. But you can always do like Buffett and buy great companies at any point in the cycle and do well.

 

[Jax_Vol]

The big ones have carried the sector. It’s hard to guess if they’ll hold up and the laggards catch up or if the big ones deteriorate back to the crowd. The dot com bubble took everything down so there is lots of caution. But AMZN hasn’t kept up. AWS is one of the most important IT companies out there. I worry most about NVDA holding up and I really ought to lighten up on it. Earnings are expected 5/24 after the close.

I think that the AI mania resembles the dot com / internet / WWW insanity of two decades ago somewhat. Every earnings call has management dropping “AI bombs” at every opportunity.

Think you probably know, but AMZN is not included in the IT index. It falls under Consumer Discretionary.

We have discussed this several times before. It is extremely hard to fathom right now, but I am such a Microsoft fan. Without Bezos, long term, I foresee Azure running AWS into the ground. And, we do agree...w/o AWS, Amazon is going to struggle. But, I may be wrong wrong wrong..

 

[Jax_Vol]

One area of IT that I still like are companies that could benefit rather than be hurt by manufacturing being migrated out of China. Possibly AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC. Maybe Broadcom (AVGO) and even INTC. Intel is building a huge fab facility in the Midwest (Ohio iirc).

TSM scares me with the political climate and Warren Buffett souring on them. ASML is one of the best IT companies in the NASDAQ 100, but they’re not selling their high end products to China. So they are less exposed to pushback on the CCP’s nonsense.

IT names really need multiple revenue streams and/or own huge market shares to be comfortable LT holds. So many leading companies from the early 2000s have vanished (or have become small subsidiaries) as the industry evolved. Novell. Netscape. Read-Rite. AOL. Yahoo. EMC. Palm. 3COM. Cloud won’t be going anywhere (AMZN-AWS, MSFT, GOOGL), e-commerce is a LT trend (AMZN, WMT, FDX, UPS, probably AAPL, etc) and the advertising sellers (META, GOOGL) benefit from huge margins but advertising also suffers disproportionally in slow economies.

FSELX has been my fund for the semiconductors. I'm bullish there. China is a concern, but I think the other Asian countries will pick up slack. Hope Intel can get back to good ole days. Do like their CEO, but they've dug quite a hole. US Government is going to throw money at it. We'll see.

In general, semiconductors fall into the demand exceeding supply category. They haven't yet fully recovered from pandemic. In my opinion, lots of money to be made there. Mixed feeling on Global Foundries. Like the CEO, but think NVDA is bad bet for remainder of this year. Also think, Buffett bailed out too early on TWM. Not worried about China bothering them. But, Warren's people pour over books, so know more than we do. Love ASML.