All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think I may start a decent sized long term position in PLTR.

Alex Karl was interviewed on CNBC today. Strange, interesting feller.

I’ve held shares for 30 months. Up 210%. I’m not planning to sell. Maybe sell some covered calls on about a quarter of my holdings - but maybe when closer to Election Day. I don’t know if Kamala will be good for any defense stocks.

PLTR is a tough call. They’re building up a solid customer base and might not have a direct competitor.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

BX: owned for about 20 years. Excellent long term hold.
REGN: Was in the hospital near death. Gave me some new drugs. I asked who made them, Regeneron. They know what they are doing. Bought at $300. Have continued to buy up to $1k.
COST: Went to one wtih a friend around 2011. Thought Wow! Bought the stock. Continues to grow.
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway. They know what they are doing. Only owned for 1-2 years, but excellent results.
Have about 70% of my funds in these 4 stocks. Often wish that was 90%
When I bought I thought I was late to the game on all of them..

I've had my share of losers too. CVS, F, MRNA

Way back when - before mutual funds and ETFs - holding about 15 stocks was well diversified. The way things change so rapidly I don’t think being concentrated in just a few companies is something that I’d do well with.

If I had it to do all over again I’d avoid the hot names if they are small. Sticking with great, well established and well capitalized companies like COST and BRK for decades are almost guaranteed wins. Being the #1 or #2 company in boring industries has also worked well. Waste Management is one. MasterCard is another. CSX. Nucor after China was reeled in.

A couple of years ago I bought a basket of private equity and hedge fund names. KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo have been great. Carlyle Group (CG) has been dead money.

 

[Go aeiou]

Way back when - before mutual funds and ETFs - holding about 15 stocks was well diversified. The way things change so rapidly I don’t think being concentrated in just a few companies is something that I’d do well with.

If I had it to do all over again I’d avoid the hot names if they are small. Sticking with great, well established and well capitalized companies like COST and BRK for decades are almost guaranteed wins. Being the #1 or #2 company in boring industries has also worked well. Waste Management is one. MasterCard is another. CSX. Nucor after China was reeled in.

A couple of years ago I bought a basket of private equity and hedge fund names. KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo have been great. Carlyle Group (CG) has been dead money.

I've owned WM for at least 10+ years. Not a lot though. Ha, why do you have a name like Waste Management if you're not connected to the mafia?
Yeah, I keep adding to Vanguard etfs: VUG, VOO,etc and some international etfs. I looked up a drug(Farxiga) I take, and found that it causes confusion so I'm going to almost all etfs. I enjoy the mkt so I'll keep about 5-10% to play with.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Wednesday 9/18 at 2pm will be the FIMC interest rate announcement (with Powell’s press conference at 2:30).

Pre-markets are kind of quiet ATM. UBER, Broadcom, Schwab, and WFC are all positive.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

AAPL might be a short term trading opportunity or should be soon. Off 3% today and 10% in the last month or two. iPhone 11s are starting to age out.

If not a quick trade, it’s looking like a pretty decent entry point for the longer term.

Warren Buffett only rebalanced away from a huge position. It was 1/4 of BRK and 50% of the public holdings before he sold SOME shares of AAPL.

 

[Volfanatic_20]

Omex?

 

[jmacvols1]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fed-officials-set-to-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-in-4-years-090036733.html

Fed lowers interest rates by half point in first cut since 2020​

.....may cut another half point by end of year...

 

[Carp]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fed-officials-set-to-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-in-4-years-090036733.html

Fed lowers interest rates by half point in first cut since 2020​

.....may cut another half point by end of year...

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The more Powell speaks, the more the surge in equities is given back.

The algorithms are in control. Utilities are the worst sector. But with the higher rate cuts it’s cheaper for them to borrow to build projects and their dividend yields are more attractive relative to debt.

 

[05_never_again]

The economy is so great we needed a 50 bp rate cut and another 50 at the next meeting.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I hope that the interest expense saved by the treasury will go toward reducing the national debt instead of paying off student loans and other stupid **** that the government wastes money on. Yeah. That’s not going to happen.

 

[Go aeiou]

I hope that the interest expense saved by the treasury will go toward reducing the national debt instead of paying off student loans and other stupid **** that the government wastes money on. Yeah. That’s not going to happen.

If ifs and buts were cherries and nuts....
Politicians don't care about deficits. They like to talk about it though.

 

[Vol737]

Big winners for me lately have been ANET, BLK, PLTR and ROKU. I’ve been in and continuously buying APPL, AMZN and SHOP for a while, which has done well. Energy plays have been rewarded with ET, CVX and KMI over the past few years. Financials I’ve been in are JPM, TFC, FITB and LNC for reliable dividends. Been buying UPS at its lows lately as a value play and to capture a nice dividend. Will become less expensive now for them to borrow money and working through making their ops more efficient post Teamsters contract. Pre market looks like it’s responding positively to Fed Action after digesting it overnight.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Consider adding healthcare for the long term. PLTR is indirect HC. The Select Sector or Vanguard ETF perhaps. Don't ignore the aging US demographic.

 

[Vol737]

Consider adding healthcare for the long term. PLTR is indirect HC. The Select Sector or Vanguard ETF perhaps. Don't ignore the aging US demographic.

Yes, good thought wrt the aging demographic. I know I own HC through my S&P 500 ETF, a Total Stock Market ETF and own MRK individually. It has performed well.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yes, good thought wrt the aging demographic. I know I own HC through my S&P 500 ETF, a Total Stock Market ETF and own MRK individually. It has performed well.

I probably have too many shares of ISRG considering I’m pretty ignorant about the business. It is hard for customers to switch to a competing surgical robotics company once they’ve installed Intuitive’s system. And ISRG has a solid recurring revenue base from their installations. I’d like to hear what opinions surgeons have.

I have MDT. It’s been dead money for a good while now.

JNJ is a good healthcare company with a wide array of products. Maybe that talc issue is behind them and it’s a good time to buy in.

I’ve held CURE for several years. I’m breaking the rules though - it’s supposed to only be a short term hold. XLV is the safer healthcare ETF. Not leveraged like CURE.

I’m amazed at the market caps of so many drug stocks. Lots of $100 billion plus and iirc LLY is around a trillion. I’d be worried about the weight loss drug frenzy. Competition and side effects.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

OGN and VTRS were spun out of MRK and PFE in recent years. S&P 600 and S&P 500 companies. I’m pretty neutral on both. I did like Mylan (merged with Upjohn which was owned by PFE to create VTRS) and also TEVA. TEVA is still a stand alone smallish pharma.

The problem with pharma that isn’t Big Pharma is that they can get crushed by the giants as well as the government reducing Medicare/Medicaid compensation.

Organon does a lot of women’s health. Good because women live longer, but unfortunately they’re focused on fertility and birth control - which cancels out the immortal old biddies revenue model.

 

[Vol737]

I probably have too many shares of ISRG considering I’m pretty ignorant about the business. It is hard for customers to switch to a competing surgical robotics company once they’ve installed Intuitive’s system. And ISRG has a solid recurring revenue base from their installations. I’d like to hear what opinions surgeons have.

I have MDT. It’s been dead money for a good while now.

JNJ is a good healthcare company with a wide array of products. Maybe that talc issue is behind them and it’s a good time to buy in.

I’ve held CURE for several years. I’m breaking the rules though - it’s supposed to only be a short term hold. XLV is the safer healthcare ETF. Not leveraged like CURE.

I’m amazed at the market caps of so many drug stocks. Lots of $100 billion plus and iirc LLY is around a trillion. I’d be worried about the weight loss drug frenzy. Competition and side effects.

I remember when LLY was around $90/share. Bought, made some money, sold. It went down for a while and then has just exploded. I’m guilty of selling too soon on some things I start out with a strong conviction on.

I owned MAKO years ago. It was an upstart robotic surgery company. I had missed out on the big upswing with ISRG and MAKO was really gaining traction. Earnings were upbeat and was supposed to be a big competitor in the orthopedic surgery space with knees and hips. Woke up one morning to see it had more than doubled overnight. Had about 1000 shares. I was so excited to find out what the news was all about only to find out Stryker had bought them at $39 a share. It was $16 when I went to bed the night before. I agree on MDT. Medtronic hasn’t really been a big mover and hasn’t been compelling enough for me to buy.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I remember when LLY was around $90/share. Bought, made some money, sold. It went down for a while and then has just exploded. I’m guilty of selling too soon on some things I start out with a strong conviction on.

I owned MAKO years ago. It was an upstart robotic surgery company. I had missed out on the big upswing with ISRG and MAKO was really gaining traction. Earnings were upbeat and was supposed to be a big competitor in the orthopedic surgery space with knees and hips. Woke up one morning to see it had more than doubled overnight. Had about 1000 shares. I was so excited to find out what the news was all about only to find out Stryker had bought them at $39 a share. It was $16 when I went to bed the night before. I agree on MDT. Medtronic hasn’t really been a big mover and hasn’t been compelling enough for me to buy.

I’m close to being a GEHC fanboy.

I was disappointed that BRK and AMZN flamed out with their healthcare initiative. I wish that WMT could get more involved with healthcare and drive down prices. But they might just be in it to take away only the profitable pieces which drives up overall HC costs since the hospitals get stuck with the less profitable procedures.

I’ve also had my eye on DVA, DXCM, and DGX for a while.

Dexcom’s (diabetes) revenues won’t be growing if the weight loss drugs become commonplace.

Davita (dialysis) seems safe - as far as I know there aren’t world changing kidney disease cures and treatments happening.

Quest Diagnostics might be in a sweet spot, but I don’t think they’ve been managed all that well. They can test for all sorts of things. Recurring revenue with pre-employment drug screenings. They popped early when COVID-19 was running wild. Once the test at home kits went out, that windfall diminished. But we’ll probably see something similar to COVID hit a couple of times a generation. Then I think that they do a lot of common testing and screenings for cancer and what not.

I bought Stericycle (medical waste) several years ago and then it quickly went from a darling to a dog. Waste Management is buying them and I’ll be about 5% in the red after holding for years. I wish there was an option to exchange SRCL shares for WM shares instead of cash. The long term loss does me no good inside of the Roth IRA the shares are in. I might add to WM though. We’ll always be generating garbage to deal with.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

LABU is a 3x biotech bull ETF that I’ve traded a few times with small amounts of investment capital. I might try selling LABU put options. Weekly contracts and large premiums on near term ATMs.

9/27/2024 $144 ($144.20 underlying) is $5.70/$7.00. The $145 is $6.05/$7.40.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

FDX is on sale today. Off 15%. But they did miss their top and bottom lines by a lot. They must have really bad accounting to miss their forecasts by as much as they did. Some pencil pushers are getting dog cussed today I’d reckon. And the finance executives are probably throwing underlings under the bus.

That said - they’re still profitable, don’t have a rich earnings multiple, are almost a duopoly (I guess the post office is a 3rd player, although Amazon still has a lot of delivery trucks on the road as well), and their 2.2% dividend is safe.

Also their busy season is just around the corner. FDX should be a good ST trade or now have a good entry point for the LT.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

FDX is on sale today. Off 15%. But they did miss their top and bottom lines by a lot. They must have really bad accounting to miss their forecasts by as much as they did. Some pencil pushers are getting dog cussed today I’d reckon. And the finance executives are probably throwing underlings under the bus.

That said - they’re still profitable, don’t have a rich earnings multiple, are almost a duopoly (I guess the post office is a 3rd player, although Amazon still has a lot of delivery trucks on the road as well), and their 2.2% dividend is safe.

Also their busy season is just around the corner. FDX should be a good ST trade or now have a good entry point for the LT.

I know a fair number of those "pencil pushers" and finance execs at FDX. It's never been the most efficient or lean company out there. They are fat and bloated administratively and have been for years and years. Fred let it get too bloated and Raj hasnt put a dent in it yet....

But yeah, it's not a bad stock to hold long term.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I know a fair number of those "pencil pushers" and finance execs at FDX. It's never been the most efficient or lean company out there. They are fat and bloated administratively and have been for years and years. Fred let it get too bloated and Raj hasnt put a dent in it yet....

But yeah, it's not a bad stock to hold long term.

I wonder how old their airplane fleet is.

They also save a lot by contracting out some of the delivery driver piece to 3rd party, small companies.

Uber is also changing the delivery landscape. Also, I ordered from Lowe’s and was surprised that the delivery driver pulled up in their own vehicle. Not wearing a uniform or even anything with a Lowe’s logo. And no signage on their car either.

But, online purchases are still nowhere close to full penetration. FedEx and UPS are sound businesses. Even with UPS having to pay their drivers about $125k in pay and benefits.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Super Micro (SMCI) was knocked down again today. The WSJ is reporting that a short seller is alleging more accounting irregularities and the DOJ is investigating.

They have big contracts with big clients (NVDA, TSLA) and shares are only about 13x next year’s expected earnings.

Buying opportunity in the AI and crypto spaces or a falling knife. Their products are largely commodities but there’s lots of demand for them.

 

[JFreak]

Super Micro (SMCI) was knocked down again today. The WSJ is reporting that a short seller is alleging more accounting irregularities and the DOJ is investigating.

They have big contracts with big clients (NVDA, TSLA) and shares are only about 13x next year’s expected earnings.

Buying opportunity in the AI and crypto spaces or a falling knife. Their products are largely commodities but there’s lots of demand for them.

Interesting one that I wasn't really tracking before. If I hadn't started a large position in RIVN today I would probably take a bite. Will keep an eye on it.