All things STOCKS

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And, I can't pass up a buy at the all time high. Probably dumb decision. Time will tell
I was concerned myself a few months ago on the stock. I don’t even remember what it was now, but the bad news caused lots of people to dump it and there were numerous doom and gloom stories about NVDA. I ended up buying more in the mid 90s, but I thought I might’ve been making a dumb decision because ’what if everyone else is right?’. So far, so good, but who knows what the future holds. I hope you made the right decision, @Go aeiou because I’m right there with you.
 
I was concerned myself a few months ago on the stock. I don’t even remember what it was now, but the bad news caused lots of people to dump it and there were numerous doom and gloom stories about NVDA. I ended up buying more in the mid 90s, but I thought I might’ve been making a dumb decision because ’what if everyone else is right?’. So far, so good, but who knows what the future holds. I hope you made the right decision, @Go aeiou because I’m right there with you.
Bought at 133.67. Closed at 184.81. So I'm happy for at least today.
I'll probably keep it the rest of my life. Maybe add more.
 
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Bought at 133.67. Closed at 184.81. So I'm happy for at least today.
I'll probably keep it the rest of my life. Maybe add more.
You got me excited to see it closed today at $184.81, but then I realized that was a typo 🤣
 
Dadgumit. $134.81.
I have to be carful these days when I trade. I'm afraid I'll make a stupid mistake like that.
Many, many years ago before ebay made you clearly confirm your bid, I accidentally hit an extra digit while bidding on a watch. Before the auction ended I emailed the seller about my fat finger mistake and my bid was cancelled.
 
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Many, many years ago before ebay made you clearly confirm your bid, I accidentally hit an extra digit while bidding on a watch. Before the auction ended I emailed the seller about my fat finger mistake and my bid was cancelled.
Ouch!

I've dealt with other people making mistakes for years.
I used to develop real estate, and I had a young couple buy a lot to build a custom home on. They had not gotten a ball park estimate of the cost to build the house. I got a call about 1-2 months later asking if there was any way they could get their money back. They said they had no idea it would cost that much to build a house. I gave it back. Similar things happened a couple of more times.
That is the only way to do business afaic.
 
Response to the Tesla Robotaxi is insane right now.

Uber and/or Lyft would be great companies to own if they were to partner with Tesla on the technology rather than get run over by Elon.

Infrastructure to park the robo fleets over night, charge, and service would be an interesting business. I doubt that Tesla would want to tie up that much capital in real estate.

Government regulation will probably cripple the innovation. Unions will resist change as well.
 
Uber and/or Lyft would be great companies to own if they were to partner with Tesla on the technology rather than get run over by Elon.

Infrastructure to park the robo fleets over night, charge, and service would be an interesting business. I doubt that Tesla would want to tie up that much capital in real estate.

Government regulation will probably cripple the innovation. Unions will resist change as well.
You have to think a few accidents will slow acceptance of driverless cars down. I've been making trips to the Nashville airport, and the roads constantantly change. Will governments always get todays road information into the system?
It's coming, but there wil likely be hiccups. Hopefully not fatal.
 
You have to think a few accidents will slow acceptance of driverless cars down. I've been making trips to the Nashville airport, and the roads constantantly change. Will governments always get todays road information into the system?
It's coming, but there wil likely be hiccups. Hopefully not fatal.
Because human drivers never have accidents or kill anyone? Can computers drink? Look at Instagram while driving? Fall asleep?
 
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I’d bet that statistically robo taxis are already safer than humans. It’s illogical fear that is slowing down progress. Also governments want to exert their control over the technology.

I’m hoping that autonomous drivers are a normal part of the transportation system by the time I get too old to be a safe driver.

Perhaps when it is widely in use individuals will be involved as vehicle owners that opt in and out as being part of the robo taxi fleet during the 90% of the time that their cars sit around in parking spots. They can take care of charging up overnight. They can take their own AV to work and instead of the car sitting parked all day, often in a parking spot that they pay for, their cars can be deployed for a few hours in the robo taxi fleet.

Car manufacturers and their unions will object since fewer cars would need to exist. Governments dependent on collecting fees for moving violations won’t like them either. At least the insurance companies should be on board as the number of accidents should fall drastically (but so would their insurance rates - so maybe they’d be anti autonomous vehicle). The Teamsters will also oppose the progress as the technology would no doubt expand into trucking.
 
People don’t just “object” obviously. The local governments that issue taxi licenses make a lot of money off it. It’s ripe for disruption but you have to be small fry if you are going to provide illegally.
 
People don’t just “object” obviously. The local governments that issue taxi licenses make a lot of money off it. It’s ripe for disruption but you have to be small fry if you are going to provide illegally.

New York City taxi medallions were about a million dollars each (in the secondary market) 10 years ago. Then Uber/Lyft came along and they fell by over 90%.

New York City only collects a few hundred dollars each per year.
 
I’d bet that statistically robo taxis are already safer than humans. It’s illogical fear that is slowing down progress. Also governments want to exert their control over the technology.

I’m hoping that autonomous drivers are a normal part of the transportation system by the time I get too old to be a safe driver.

Perhaps when it is widely in use individuals will be involved as vehicle owners that opt in and out as being part of the robo taxi fleet during the 90% of the time that their cars sit around in parking spots. They can take care of charging up overnight. They can take their own AV to work and instead of the car sitting parked all day, often in a parking spot that they pay for, their cars can be deployed for a few hours in the robo taxi fleet.

Car manufacturers and their unions will object since fewer cars would need to exist. Governments dependent on collecting fees for moving violations won’t like them either. At least the insurance companies should be on board as the number of accidents should fall drastically (but so would their insurance rates - so maybe they’d be anti autonomous vehicle). The Teamsters will also oppose the progress as the technology would no doubt expand into trucking.
I am fully onboard.

One problem....pot holes
 
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I am fully onboard.

One problem....potholes

The cameras, LiDAR, radar, and other sensors will handle pot holes.

The biggest problem will be human drivers running into the AVs. Robo taxi slows down for a pothole - Bubba in his coal burning, lifted pickup truck runs over the Tesla. But he’ll be on camera if he runs off.
 
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NVDA gonna break through the ATH today? Feels like we might see it.


Nvidia’s NVDA Stock’s Bullish Outlook: Analysts Project $177 Billion Revenue by Fiscal 2026​



Tough one to make a sell/hold decision on. There’s a history of so many high flying tech companies that eventually crash hard. But there doesn’t seem to be any slow down in the demand for their products. The tech giants are buying everything tgat they can.

Maybe instead of selling half of my shares (which I did a year or two ago), selling 5% a couple times a year makes sense.

Even if AI slows down, they still have their gaming chip business. Not too many companies can dominate two separate businesses like they do and those two industries are popping.
 
ASML is dragging down the chip sector.

ASML off 17%. 52week range: $1,100-$574. Trading at $727 today. Market cap is now under $350 billion. 47.5x p/e

They are peerless at the high end chip making equipment. Their equipment is so important that China isn’t allowed to buy their top of the line machines.
 
ASML is dragging down the chip sector.

ASML off 17%. 52week range: $1,100-$574. Trading at $727 today. Market cap is now under $350 billion. 47.5x p/e

They are peerless at the high end chip making equipment. Their equipment is so important that China isn’t allowed to buy their top of the line machines.
They definitely have a moat. Why has the demand dropped out?

Thinking it has to be something that traces back to pandemic. We overcorrected on the chips or such
 
They definitely have a moat. Why has the demand dropped out?

Thinking it has to be something that traces back to pandemic. We overcorrected on the chips or such

Off another 6% today. I don’t expect it will make new 52-week lows. I’m thinking about selling puts and backing into a position. Currently $685/share.

“Accidentally” releasing their earnings early isn’t a good look.

From Yahoo Finance:

“The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, which plays a critical role in the global chip production supply chain, released details of its financial performance a day in advance, thus attracting a stiff market response. Important for lithography systems that are part of semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure, has downgraded its 2025 net sales forecast from the earlier range of 35 billion euros ($38.6 billion) to 40 billion euros ($44.3 billion) to 30 billion euros ($33.1 billion) to 35 billion euros ($38.6 billion). This forecast is at the lower end of its previous estimates and is below the analyst estimate of 36.10bn compiled by Visible Alpha. In the same period, net sales increased to 7,47 billion euros, which again came as a surprise.”

“net bookings were 2.63 billion euros below the expected 5.59 billion euros, suggesting a deceleration of using markets. Currently, ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed out that cautionary signals of the customers include slow market recovery in some segments while boasting impressive advances in Artificial intelligence technology. Fouquet insists that the current rate of recovery is slower than projected at the beginning, with the outlook set to continue through 2025. Such a cautious approach and the specific revelation on the earnings led to unrest across the chip manufacturers”
 
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11/1/2024 $650 puts are $10. 10/25/2024 puts are about $6. 11/8s are $15.
I 80% think those are good wagers...

Seems an overreaction with some level of too much capacity in the mix.

That level of net drops in Euro's is extremely misleading in terms of percentage. Kinda a fun with math type deal..

They got a moat. Very very very large and huge moat. Unfortunate about early release of data, but too much punishment already for the Dutch.
 
I 80% think those are good wagers...

Seems an overreaction with some level of too much capacity in the mix.

That level of net drops in Euro's is extremely misleading in terms of percentage. Kinda a fun with math type deal..

They got a moat. Very very very large and huge moat. Unfortunate about early release of data, but too much punishment already for the Dutch.

One thing about shares getting punished for missing earnings or revenue, it makes comps in a year easier. Assuming there’s not a fundamental breakdown in the business. If it’s just orders being delayed then it sets up well to buy, hold, and get the long term capital gain treatment in 12 months. But ASML right now looks like it might be a hold forever type of equity.
 
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