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#16,451
#16,451
Thunder Good-Oil said:
One thing about shares getting punished for missing earnings or revenue, it makes comps in a year easier. Assuming there’s not a fundamental breakdown in the business. If it’s just orders being delayed then it sets up well to buy, hold, and get the long term capital gain treatment in 12 months. But ASML right now looks like it might be a hold forever type of equity.
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May be missing something, but what kind of breakdown could they have? Yes, they had a big fire at one of the factories. Stuff happens.

They are far ahead of everyone else in making the machines that crank out the chips.

The world can't do anything with chips.

May be a small delay because there are plenty of machines out there to make the easy chips.

But, semi-complex IC's are obsolete within 4-5 years. Arguably, Moore's Law still holds true.

They are in Amsterdam and everyone loves them. Perhaps all the legalized vices are wearing down the work force.?
 
#16,452
#16,452
Jax_Vol said:
May be missing something, but what kind of breakdown could they have? Yes, they had a big fire at one of the factories. Stuff happens.

They are far ahead of everyone else in making the machines that crank out the chips.

The world can't do anything with chips.

May be a small delay because there are plenty of machines out there to make the easy chips.

But, semi-complex IC's are obsolete within 4-5 years. Arguably, Moore's Law still holds true.

They are in Amsterdam and everyone loves them. Perhaps all the legalized vices are wearing down the work force.?
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Costs. Labor. Sourcing raw materials. Tax policies. Anything could happen.

I think they’ve had a boost because manufacturing is ramping up in places other than Taiwan. China could do a 180 and start playing nice. But even if that happens I think that chip makers will still be building fabrication facilities in less volatile geographies.

There’s not just the military threats from China, but also the problems with supply chains that we saw a couple of years ago.

China will be a huge factor one way or another.

Another moat component… China can easily steal software and IP for a lot of things. But the high end machines from ASML isn’t something that they can rip off. Even if they were able to replicate the machines, they don’t have the skilled workers to keep them up and running.

I have an order to sell next week’s $650 put, but day only limit so I don’t expect shares to fall and trigger the order. I might play with it tomorrow after seeing how ASML opens. I bet that ggere’s a lot of institutional money waiting to jump on shares while they’re on sale.
 
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#16,453
#16,453
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Costs. Labor. Sourcing raw materials. Tax policies. Anything could happen.

I think they’ve had a boost because manufacturing is ramping up in places other than Taiwan. China could do a 180 and start playing nice. But even if that happens I think that chip makers will still be building fabrication facilities in less volatile geographies.

There’s not just the military threats from China, but also the problems with supply chains that we saw a couple of years ago.

China will be a huge factor one way or another.

Another moat component… China can easily steal software and IP for a lot of things. But the high end machines from ASML isn’t something that they can rip off. Even if they were able to replicate the machines, they don’t have the skilled workers to keep them up and running.

I have an order to sell next week’s $650 put, but day only limit so I don’t expect shares to fall and trigger the order. I might play with it tomorrow after seeing how ASML opens. I bet that ggere’s a lot of institutional money waiting to jump on shares while they’re on sale.
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Yup...over the next two weeks, I think the institutions will be loading the boat on that one.

But you are correct. Could be a zillion things plus China in background.
 
#16,457
#16,457
Walgreens merger with Boots will be written about for decades as a cautionary tale. You merge with a garbage company and then you put the garbage company's leadership in charge...

CVS's retail locations are absolute garbage. Has always felt like a value trap to me.

Good philosophy to have that Ive repeated in here many times...dont buy sh*t companies
 
#16,458
#16,458
BigOrangeMojo said:
Walgreens merger with Boots will be written about for decades as a cautionary tale. You merge with a garbage company and then you put the garbage company's leadership in charge...

CVS's retail locations are absolute garbage. Has always felt like a value trap to me.
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True
I was referring to:
$2000 out-of-pocket limit on Rx drugs through Medicare:
www.medicare.gov

Costs in the coverage gap

Medicare prescription drug coverage gap, aka the donut hole. People who get Extra Help paying Part D costs won't enter the coverage gap. Out of pocket costs help you get out of the coverage gap.
www.medicare.gov www.medicare.gov

It'll be interesting to see if drug company profits fall significantly.
 
#16,459
#16,459
Go aeiou said:
True
I was referring to:
$2000 out-of-pocket limit on Rx drugs through Medicare:
www.medicare.gov

Costs in the coverage gap

Medicare prescription drug coverage gap, aka the donut hole. People who get Extra Help paying Part D costs won't enter the coverage gap. Out of pocket costs help you get out of the coverage gap.
www.medicare.gov www.medicare.gov

It'll be interesting to see if drug company profits fall significantly.
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Speaking of drugs, I closed a ten year old investment in GILD today. Bought at 102, sold at about 87. At least I dripped back in the dividends, so (trying to be real positive here) I didn't lose money because I got back more than I put in :rolleyes:
 
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#16,460
#16,460
I would have thought that CVS was going to thrive. Demographics. Aetna. Walk-in clinics. Pharmacy benefits management. Plus the 24/7 every day of the year (since Walmart still hasn’t returned to 24/7).

I guess they’ve struggled to compete with Amazon. And Walmart and Kroger. And in cities like San Francisco they pretty much given the green light to literally rob them up to a certain dollar limit.

Maybe if they close enough stores they’ll right the ship.
 
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#16,461
#16,461
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I would have thought that CVS was going to thrive. Demographics. Aetna. Walk-in clinics. Pharmacy benefits management. Plus the 24/7 every day of the year (since Walmart still hasn’t returned to 24/7).

I guess they’ve struggled to compete with Amazon. And Walmart and Kroger. And in cities like San Francisco they pretty much given the green light to literally rob them up to a certain dollar limit.

Maybe if they close enough stores they’ll right the ship.
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Their retail pharmacy business is trash. Their lack of customer care and service is legendary. Same with the clinics. Many companies wont use Caremark since many plans require non mail prescriptions to be filled at CVS.

They have a lot of interesting pieces but they cant fit them together. Until they actually focus on the customer, they will continue to flounder. Their issues arent theft related. They are fortunate Walgreens screwed up royally with Boots. Lesson of the day, dont merge with crap companies and then put crappy company leadership in charge..

Been with two large companies that made the switch to Caremark and the employees essentially revolted both times.
 
#16,462
#16,462
BigOrangeMojo said:
Their retail pharmacy business is trash. Their lack of customer care and service is legendary. Same with the clinics. Many companies wont use Caremark since many plans require non mail prescriptions to be filled at CVS.

They have a lot of interesting pieces but they cant fit them together. Until they actually focus on the customer, they will continue to flounder. Their issues arent theft related. They are fortunate Walgreens screwed up royally with Boots. Lesson of the day, dont merge with crap companies and then put crappy company leadership in charge..

Been with two large companies that made the switch to Caremark and the employees essentially revolted both times.
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Theft certainly is an issue. Locking up their merchandise is inconvenient for their customers plus it requires a lot more labor to manage each sale. I’d reckon that there’s a strong correlation between which unprofitable stores are being closed and how much theft they’re experiencing.
 
#16,465
#16,465
just bob said:
Just gotta follow Nancy Pelosi and some other members of congress... ha
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There’s a website that follows their stock transactions.

Track US politician stock trades

Track US politician trades for free with Capitol Trades. Discover which Stocks/Assets/Companies/Issuers politicians are buying or selling.
www.capitoltrades.com
 
#16,469
#16,469
Could someone give me insight on Yieldmax ETF's? They are relatively new, and if I understand correctly, their ETF's specialize in trading a singular stock's trading patterns with options based strategies (e.g. NVDY (Nvidia), APLY (Apple), AMZY (Amazon), GOOY (Google), etc).

Pros? Cons?
 
#16,472
#16,472
IBlvNTmWrk said:
Could someone give me insight on Yieldmax ETF's? They are relatively new, and if I understand correctly, their ETF's specialize in trading a singular stock's trading patterns with options based strategies (e.g. NVDY (Nvidia), APLY (Apple), AMZY (Amazon), GOOY (Google), etc).

Pros? Cons?
Click to expand...

Seeking Alpha:

  • The YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF provides high current income from writing covered calls on NVDA shares.
  • Different levels of headline distribution yield on YieldMax ETFs represent differing implied volatilities of the stocks and should not be used to choose one over another.
  • Instead, investors need to ask 1) Do they like the stock, 2) Do they want to trade upside for yield 3) Do they want to trade unrealized gains for income.

Limits To Capital Loss Deductions​

Finally, investors should ask themselves whether they want a high current tax liability.

In effect, the YieldMax products are just converting unrealized capital gains and NAV into distributions, without the tax benefit of those distributions being considered 'return of capital' (ROC). As we have pointed out in our TSLY article, the YieldMax ETFs may saddle investors with high current income tax liabilities, as option premiums are mostly considered net investment income (NII), while the ETF itself may suffer unrealized NAV declines
 
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#16,474
#16,474
Let me just add here that I looked for a long time, years, at call options where you could sell them for, say, 1% a week. I don't know if that's a good amount to look for, but that's what I did. That would be 52% a year, and you can see from their funds that that is not totally out of line. I never did any statistical analysis to figure out just where you SHOULD look. For me there was a lot of gut feeling involved if you sell calls 30 days out. It's very likely that there will be some day in that 30 days that you can close that position at a profit. If you sell 'em a week out, most of your moves are super simple. In their case, they can try to come up with some trend strategy and maybe it's way better than me. I don't want to work on that all day. It's like having a job, and if you have a job, you might as well just have a job. Some people find it very motivating because it's money.
 
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