Blue Chip ratio among teams that have won national championships.

[adam.vol]

2013 Florida State had a similar talent profile with 2015 and 2016 Clemson. All 3 were around 50% in the blue chip ratio and they each had a generational QB.

The meaning of generational is once in a generation, or about every 20 years. By my calculations, it should be impossible that all of these “generational” QB’s have been playing against one another in the NCAA.

 

[KTrain]

I just hope a lot of ppl that hang their hat on metrics come back in February and go to their favorite refrain.
"I hoped I was wrong" , our QB showed out and broke the metric mode GBO.

 

[YankeeVol]

Just driving the point home until you guys get it

Don't include me in your dumb drivel

 

[OrangeTsar]

How long has it been since Tennessee even had a small chance of signing a high 4* or 5* recruit before Heupel? Butch's first year was an outlier for the rest of his tenure.

The talent level choosing Tennessee now has improved drastically since Heupel was hired. The product he puts on the field is exciting to watch, Hasn't had a losing season since he's been here, even with the attrition from the Pruitt debacle.

I don't see any reason to think Tennessee won't be a destination for even more and better talent in the future. Hope I'm around to see the fruits of his labor in the next couple of years.

And it hopefully starts a positive feedback loop. A really good season brings in more of those blue chip players which leads to even better seasons. Do it correctly and maybe someday you become like Georgia or Alabama where the momentum starts driving itself

 

[Brave Volunteer]

I just hope a lot of ppl that hang their hat on metrics come back in February and go to their favorite refrain.
"I hoped I was wrong" , our QB showed out and broke the metric mode GBO.

Same with fans who have us going 12-0 in August and calling for the coach's job in December when we "only" go 9-3.

 

[OrangeTsar]

I think we have very good first string talent everywhere except maybe the secondary and I think we are improving that now.
Where getting into that 50% to 60% range gets you is depth. We are just now finally developing some depth of the D Line and in the receiver corps.
That is what Heupel is getting us now. You are going to have injuries during the season and we have to get to the same place as the Georgia’s and Bama’s where, if you lose a five star, you can just plug in another 4 or five star

 

[VFL-82-JP]

On 2023, 15 preseason top 25 teams did not finish in the post season top 25. Pre season polls mean little.

That's bad data, LWS. Only 8 of the pre-season Top 25 (AP) did not make the final Top 25. And most of those were between #17 and #24.

Only one team in the top 10 didn't end ranked: #6 USCw. Then one other team in the top 15 was knocked out: #14 Utah.

All four of the teams invited to the playoffs started the season in the Top 25. In fact, they were all among the top 11 teams (Texas was the only one who didn't start in the top 10).

So I'd say the pre-season polls are a fairly decent predictor of success. If you're not in the early poll, you probably aren't ending the year competing for a Power 4 conference championship or getting into the playoffs.

Now, that will change a bit as the playoffs expand to 12 teams. There will probably end up being one or two teams each year who rise from outside the Top 25 to get a spot. But it will still be rare.

Pre-season polls don't get it all right. Usually, they get a few teams spectacularly wrong. But by and large, if you want to have post-season success, you want to be as high as possible in the pre-season rankings.

Go Vols!

 

[KTrain]

That's bad data, LWS. Only 8 of the pre-season Top 25 (AP) did not make the final Top 25. And most of those were between #17 and #24.

Only one team in the top 10 didn't end ranked: #6 USCw. Then one other team in the top 15 was knocked out: #14 Utah.

All four of the teams invited to the playoffs started the season in the Top 25. In fact, they were all among the top 11 teams (Texas was the only one who didn't start in the top 10).

So I'd say the pre-season polls are a fairly decent predictor of success. If you're not in the early poll, you probably aren't ending the year competing for a Power 4 conference championship or getting into the playoffs.

Now, that will change a bit as the playoffs expand to 12 teams. There will probably end up being one or two teams each year who rise from outside the Top 25 to get a spot. But it will still be rare.

Pre-season polls don't get it all right. Usually, they get a few teams spectacularly wrong. But by and large, if you want to have post-season success, you want to be as high as possible in the pre-season rankings.

Go Vols!

That is not as right as it used to be when they did mythical champ or when they went to 4 team playoff. I mean Auburn somehow won the ship starting out outside the top 20. With 12 team playoff other teams could do it if a QB has a Cam Newton or a Manziel year out of nowhere. You wont have to climb to the top 2 or 4, just the top 12.GBO

 

[LWSVOL]

That's bad data, LWS. Only 8 of the pre-season Top 25 (AP) did not make the final Top 25. And most of those were between #17 and #24.

Only one team in the top 10 didn't end ranked: #6 USCw. Then one other team in the top 15 was knocked out: #14 Utah.

All four of the teams invited to the playoffs started the season in the Top 25. In fact, they were all among the top 11 teams (Texas was the only one who didn't start in the top 10).

So I'd say the pre-season polls are a fairly decent predictor of success. If you're not in the early poll, you probably aren't ending the year competing for a Power 4 conference championship or getting into the playoffs.

Now, that will change a bit as the playoffs expand to 12 teams. There will probably end up being one or two teams each year who rise from outside the Top 25 to get a spot. But it will still be rare.

Pre-season polls don't get it all right. Usually, they get a few teams spectacularly wrong. But by and large, if you want to have post-season success, you want to be as high as possible in the pre-season rankings.

Go Vols!

I was going off memory and may have gotten years mixed up. Might have been 2022... I think I have data somewhere and will check.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

That is not as right as it used to be when they did mythical champ or when they went to 4 team playoff. I mean Auburn somehow won the ship starting out outside the top 20. With 12 team playoff other teams could do it if a QB has a Cam Newton or a Manziel year out of nowhere. You wont have to climb to the top 2 or 4, just the top 12.GBO

Yah, all true, but imagine the team that starts pre-season out of the polls, then rises to the #12 or #11 spot by the end of the season.

Now they gotta play the #5 or #6 team in the country, probably a Power 5 conference runner up, like Bama or Ohio State or Clemson.

If they win that one, they gotta play one of the four conference champions.

If they win that one, they gotta play another of the four conference champions--or a team that BEAT a power conference champ.

And then finally, they have to play yet another Power conference champ, or a team that beat at least two of those.

In short, that lucky #11 or #12 spot team who rose magically in the polls, they are going to crash and burn in the playoffs. There's just no realistic path for them to a title.

~ ~ ~

If you wanna be great at the end of the season, you REALLY want to start the season in the Top 25, and as high up in it as possible. That early poll is still a decent predictor of post-season success. That's all I'm saying.

Go Vols!

 

[LWSVOL]

That's bad data, LWS. Only 8 of the pre-season Top 25 (AP) did not make the final Top 25. And most of those were between #17 and #24.

Only one team in the top 10 didn't end ranked: #6 USCw. Then one other team in the top 15 was knocked out: #14 Utah.

All four of the teams invited to the playoffs started the season in the Top 25. In fact, they were all among the top 11 teams (Texas was the only one who didn't start in the top 10).

So I'd say the pre-season polls are a fairly decent predictor of success. If you're not in the early poll, you probably aren't ending the year competing for a Power 4 conference championship or getting into the playoffs.

Now, that will change a bit as the playoffs expand to 12 teams. There will probably end up being one or two teams each year who rise from outside the Top 25 to get a spot. But it will still be rare.

Pre-season polls don't get it all right. Usually, they get a few teams spectacularly wrong. But by and large, if you want to have post-season success, you want to be as high as possible in the pre-season rankings.

Go Vols!

it was 2022. Apologize.

Coaches poll
	Pre-season 2022	Final Record	Final Rank
1​	Alabama	11-2	5
2​	Ohio St	11-2	6
3​	Georgia	15-0	1
4​	Clemson	11-3	12
5​	Notre Dame	9-4	18
6​	Michigan	13-1	3
7​	Texas A&M	5-7	NR
8​	Utah	10-4	11
9​	Oklahoma	6-7	NR
10​	Baylor	6-7	NR
11​	Oklahoma St	7-6	NR
12​	Oregon	10-3	16
13​	NC State	8-5	NR
14​	Michigan St	5-7	NR
15​	USC	11-3	13
16​	Pittsburgh	9-4	22
17​	Miami	5-7	NR
18​	Texas	8-5	25
19​	Wake Forest	8-5	NR
20​	Wisconsin	7-6	NR
21​	Kentucky	7-6	NR
22​	Cincinnati	9-4	NR
23​	Arkansas	7-6	NR
24​	Ole Miss	8-5	NR
25​	Houston	8-5	NR

AP Poll
Pre-season		Final Rank
Alabama		5
Ohio St		4
Georgia		1
Clemson		13
Notre Dame		18
Texas A&M		NR
Utah		10
Michigan		3
Oklahoma		NR
Baylor		NR
Oregon		15
Oklahoma St		NR
NC State		NR
USC		12
Michigan St		NR
Miami		NR
Pittsburgh		22
Wisconsin		NR
Arkansas		NR
Kentucky		NR
Ole Miss		NR
Wake Forest		NR
Cincinnati		NR
Houston		NR
BYU		NR

 

[KTrain]

Yah, all true, but imagine the team that starts pre-season out of the polls, then rises to the #12 or #11 spot by the end of the season.

Now they gotta play the #5 or #6 team in the country, probably a Power 5 conference runner up, like Bama or Ohio State or Clemson.

If they win that one, they gotta play one of the four conference champions.

If they win that one, they gotta play another of the four conference champions--or a team that BEAT a power conference champ.

And then finally, they have to play yet another Power conference champ, or a team that beat at least two of those.

In short, that lucky #11 or #12 spot team who rose magically in the polls, they are going to crash and burn in the playoffs. There's just no realistic path for them to a title.

~ ~ ~

If you wanna be great at the end of the season, you REALLY want to start the season in the Top 25, and as high up in it as possible. That early poll is still a decent predictor of post-season success. That's all I'm saying.

Go Vols!

We agree but it is more doable now than ever. I believe a Cam Newton led Auburn team that didn't have supporting players even close to the Vols right now could do it.
That is the common denominator if Nico turns out to be a generational player for the Vols he has the supporting cast to do it. Now I'm not saying Nico is generational but I'm saying any team that has the supporting players like UT with a Heisman type QB can do it. Right now Nico is a wait and see, nobody's seen enough. I suspect after NC State and on the road at Oklahoma we will feel a sense of where this seasons is going or could go.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

it was 2022. Apologize.

Coaches poll
	Pre-season 2022	Final Record	Final Rank
1​	Alabama	11-2	5
2​	Ohio St	11-2	6
3​	Georgia	15-0	1
4​	Clemson	11-3	12
5​	Notre Dame	9-4	18
6​	Michigan	13-1	3
7​	Texas A&M	5-7	NR
8​	Utah	10-4	11
9​	Oklahoma	6-7	NR
10​	Baylor	6-7	NR
11​	Oklahoma St	7-6	NR
12​	Oregon	10-3	16
13​	NC State	8-5	NR
14​	Michigan St	5-7	NR
15​	USC	11-3	13
16​	Pittsburgh	9-4	22
17​	Miami	5-7	NR
18​	Texas	8-5	25
19​	Wake Forest	8-5	NR
20​	Wisconsin	7-6	NR
21​	Kentucky	7-6	NR
22​	Cincinnati	9-4	NR
23​	Arkansas	7-6	NR
24​	Ole Miss	8-5	NR
25​	Houston	8-5	NR

AP Poll
Pre-season		Final Rank
Alabama		5
Ohio St		4
Georgia		1
Clemson		13
Notre Dame		18
Texas A&M		NR
Utah		10
Michigan		3
Oklahoma		NR
Baylor		NR
Oregon		15
Oklahoma St		NR
NC State		NR
USC		12
Michigan St		NR
Miami		NR
Pittsburgh		22
Wisconsin		NR
Arkansas		NR
Kentucky		NR
Ole Miss		NR
Wake Forest		NR
Cincinnati		NR
Houston		NR
BYU		NR

Yah, good correction.

And yep, the bottom end of the poll is always going to see a lot of teams dropping out and other teams who were outside filling in for them. That's the nature of the #16 to #25 spots.

What perhaps was a bit extreme about 2022 was that so many of the Top 15 teams dropped all the way out: six of them, and three from the top 10, which is almost unheard of.

So yah, that year the pre-season got a lot wrong, your point is valid.

Go Vols!

 

[LWSVOL]

Yah, good correction.

And yep, the bottom end of the poll is always going to see a lot of teams dropping out and other teams who were outside filling in for them. That's the nature of the #16 to #25 spots.

What perhaps was a bit extreme about 2022 was that so many of the Top 15 teams dropped all the way out: six of them, and three from the top 10, which is almost unheard of.

So yah, that year the pre-season got a lot wrong, your point is valid.

Go Vols!

I think the portal just makes it more difficult to predict. Lot of new players year to year (including signing classes) for coaches to manage. I believe the trend will be more along dropping out rather than being in. JMO of course.

 

[getyopopcornready]

I don’t think we’ll win it all this year but I think we could make a nice run that we’ll all be proud of

 

[Brave Volunteer]

We agree but it is more doable now than ever. I believe a Cam Newton led Auburn team that didn't have supporting players even close to the Vols right now could do it.
That is the common denominator if Nico turns out to be a generational player for the Vols he has the supporting cast to do it. Now I'm not saying Nico is generational but I'm saying any team that has the supporting players like UT with a Heisman type QB can do it. Right now Nico is a wait and see, nobody's seen enough. I suspect after NC State and on the road at Oklahoma we will feel a sense of where this seasons is going or could go.

The Auburn/Alabama game that year was amazing to watch! Cam Newton made everybody look like they were moving in slow motion! There's no doubt in my mind that Alabama, far and away had the best team in the country that year but CN just wouldn't be denied!

 

[LittleVol]

No responses about the NCAA recruiting restrictions? Yeah I figured. The biggest critics are usually the least informed.

Well in their defense-( I am DEFINITELY NOT in agreement with them)

But you reposting the exact same thing is very annoying…

 

[LittleVol]

The Auburn/Alabama game that year was amazing to watch! Cam Newton made everybody look like they were moving in slow motion! There's no doubt in my mind that Alabama, far and away had the best team in the country that year but CN just wouldn't be denied!

Yeah. It’s like what if a team had the best players at the most key positions .

Like QB (Newton)
DT (Farley)

If only Tennessee adopted such methods…..

 

[LittleVol]

I think we do get to 10 wins, but we'll need a bowl victory to get us there. Unless Nico is the second coming of Cam Newton, I don't see us winning more than 9 regular season games.

Or 3 star Joe Burrow maybe???

The guy who won a National Championship by throwing for 50 TDS and running for 10 TD with
6000 total yards … in one season


Maybe that guy could do some things with this team??!

 

[LittleVol]

So Transfer portal is exempt??
Okay we can’t add:
Zalance Heard ️️️️️
Bru McCoy ️️️️️
Donte Thornton ️️️️
Andre Turrentine ️️️️
Omar Norman Lott ️️️️

Uhm…these guys are actual starters.
Why don’t they matter ???

This is a very interesting method for gauging talent

Let’s NOT count actual guys on the current roster.

But hey we would wouldn’t want those 3 stars Jermond McCoy and Chris Brazzell to bring our rating down with their ranking .

This method definitely sounds legit!!
60% here we come!! Wooohoo

 

[Pride85]

I think it's good to temper expectations on this board.

Some tend to get way out over their skis when we begin to taste a bit of success.

Some of us actually remember the build up to the success we experienced under Fulmer.

For me, we haven't quite passed the eye test yet. Overall talent level is the likely reason but we are improving and that I can see with my own eyes.

IMHO, We don't have to win a championship or even make the playoffs to have a good season, as long as, we can continue to see improvement. I have no problem discussing our deficiencies but context matters. In this case I think it's a productive conversation.

I agree to a point. If we are going to use statistics to rate our chances let's use all of the data points. I use statistical analysis of welding processes every day in my work. If I want the process to look like it is a raging success, I can prefilter the data to show only the positive results. If I want the reverse result, like this post, I filter the negative out. To get a PRODUCTIVE discussion, you have to use all of the data, even if it does not match the desired outcome.

 

[Pride85]

So Transfer portal is exempt??
Okay we can’t add:
Zalance Heard ️️️️️
Bru McCoy ️️️️️
Donte Thornton ️️️️
Andre Turrentine ️️️️
Omar Norman Lott ️️️️

Uhm…these guys are actual starters.
Why don’t they matter ???

This is a very interesting method for gauging talent

Let’s NOT count actual guys on the current roster.

But hey we would wouldn’t want those 3 stars Jermond McCoy and Chris Brazzell to bring our rating down with their ranking .

This method definitely sounds legit!!
60% here we come!! Wooohoo

Yep, it helps to use all of the data in the analysis, or the analysis is useless.

 

[Brave Volunteer]

Or 3 star Joe Burrow maybe???

The guy who won a National Championship by throwing for 50 TDS and running for 10 TD with
6000 total yards … in one season


Maybe that guy could do some things with this team??!

Burrow had unreal talent around him! We're not chopped liver, but that LSU team is one of the most talented teams of all time. It's up there with 90's Nebraska and early 00's Miami.

 

[Pride85]

SO how does the latest commitment affect that blue chip ratio? I bet next year looks pretty good, even better than this year. The ratio ratio number that you reported for THIS year is actually significantly low.

 

[WillisWG]

David Sanders moves that ratio