Bracketmatrix 2021-22

#378
#378
VolFann9 said:
Pretending we get a 3 seed, wouldn’t you say we want Duke, Purdue, or Texas Tech as our 2 seed? I want either Auburn or Kansas as the 1 seed, definitely not Gonzaga or Arizona again (I know we won, but home court and officials helped significantly)
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Purdue is lowest ranked team on KenPom getting 2 seed love, will be interesting to see what happens with Baylor over next couple weeks without the player they lost to injury.
 
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#379
#379
golfballs said:
Bracketology: Analyzing impact of metrics in NCAA Tournament selection, seeding

bodes will for Tennessee
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So, based on their analysis, selecting the field relies mostly on resume, and seeding is a combination of both resume and quality... So using pure quality (average of BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) to select auto-bids, pure resume (KPI, SOR) to select at-large, and then seeding based on equal weighting average of the two, this would be the seed list, and the bracket would probably look pretty close to this.
Screenshot 2022-02-17 213615.jpg
 
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#380
#380
I did make one adjustment to the output. LSU and Alabama actually come out tied between an average of resume and quality. But it seems like a general consensus that LSU won't be that high, and it would mean 5 teams in the top 4 seed lines from a single conference - which has happened before but in this case seems unlikely the comittee would do that. So I bumped them down and Wisconsin up from the 5 line.
 
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#381
#381
Updated matrix with last nights games…

1. Gonzaga W
2. Auburn W
3. Arizona W
4. Kansas W
———
5. Kentucky L
6. Purdue W
7. Baylor L
8. Duke W
———
9. Villanova W
10. Texas Tech W
11. Wisconsin W
12. Providence L
———
13. Illinois L
14. UCLA W
15. Tennessee W
16. Houston W
———
17. Texas W
18. Michigan State L
19. Ohio State W
20. Alabama W
———
21. LSU W
22. Marquette W
23. Xavier L
24. UCONN W
 
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#382
#382
golfballs said:
I did make one adjustment to the output. LSU and Alabama actually come out tied between an average of resume and quality. But it seems like a general consensus that LSU won't be that high, and it would mean 5 teams in the top 4 seed lines from a single conference - which has happened before but in this case seems unlikely the comittee would do that. So I bumped them down and Wisconsin up from the 5 line.
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Yeah, LSU and Alabama are gonna need to finish strong to get this high of a seed.
 
#383
#383
golfballs said:
I did make one adjustment to the output. LSU and Alabama actually come out tied between an average of resume and quality. But it seems like a general consensus that LSU won't be that high, and it would mean 5 teams in the top 4 seed lines from a single conference - which has happened before but in this case seems unlikely the comittee would do that. So I bumped them down and Wisconsin up from the 5 line.
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Saw someone mentioning yesterday LSU is gonna be one to watch down the stretch, their play with/without HEALTHY Pinson has been a big difference…their slide was mostly with him out or not playing 100%, if they close strong with him out there they likely will get a better seed than their resume would suggest.
 
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#384
#384
latest Lunardi has Duke,Arizona,Baylor joing Vols (4) with Mich State-Davidson as 5-12 matchup
 
#392
#392
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Not to state the obvious but our remaining schedule implies that we have a massive floor/ceiling range on seed. The highest distribution of outcomes would seem to fall in the 3/4, but it’s a bit presumptuous to make any conclusions given the three really hard games left.
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2-5 seed seems a near certainty at this point.
 
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#393
#393
bleedingTNorange said:
2-5 seed seems a near certainty at this point.
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I think that’s a fairly broad range, but captures most of the outcome distribution. Ultimately I was just trying to capture the complexity of our own data set. If you add the possibilities of the tournament and the performance of other teams, it gets messy quickly. 4-1 and two tournament wins might get us a two with the right combination of other events. The NCAA has been stingy with 1/2 seeds for the SEC. Given the love for Auburn and KY, we’ll have to thread the needle to pull a 2.
 
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#400
#400
BallerVolFan said:
Somehow Northwestern would be a Quad 1 win for Purdue. So if they lose, these AP pollsters will think “eh it’s not that bad, just a quad 1 loss” and drop them 1 spot.
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That’s why I’m not crazy about the quads. I get that you have to draw lines somewhere but you can’t put winning at Northwestern in the same bucket as beating the #1 team in the country at home. I don’t know where that line should be drawn but it needs to be adjusted. Maybe they should use multipliers for the road instead of using quads. So have a value for beating a team ranked “x”. At home you get x-y, neutral the value is just x, and in the road is x+y.
 
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