Bracketmatrix 2021-22

[bleedingTNorange]

Beat Georgia and it feels like a 4 is the floor assuming we play a decent opponent in SECT

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Latest from Will Warren…




98% chance of 4 seed or higher
83% chance of 3 seed or higher
Says a 1 seed is more likely than a 4 seed, most likely order: 3, 2, 1, 4.

 

[golfballs]

Latest from Will Warren…




98% chance of 4 seed or higher
83% chance of 3 seed or higher
Says a 1 seed is more likely than a 4 seed, most likely order: 3, 2, 1, 4.

How does he arrive at the odds of first and second round sites? Seems like he’s overcomplicating this. Greenville gets 30% odds? Are those the odds we finish higher than Duke and Auburn on the seed line? Seems high. That’s how the committee generally does it. They don’t put all the teams into an optimization engine and minimize for overall distance. At least if they do that must be new and I’ve never heard of it.

I also disagree with how he comes up with the seeding odds. But I’ve already wasted enough breath on that before.

 

[golfballs]

Updated…

1. Arizona L
2. Gonzaga L
3. Kansas L
4. Auburn L
———
5. Kentucky L
6. Purdue L
7. Baylor W
8. Duke W
———
9. Texas Tech L
10. Villanova
11. Tennessee W
12. Illinois W
———
13. Wisconsin W
14. UCLA W
15. Providence W
16. Houston W
———
17. Connecticut W
18. Texas W
19. Alabama W
20. Arkansas W
———
21. Ohio State L
22. USC W
23. LSU W
24. St. Mary’s W

Based on the brackets updated just yesterday Wisconsin moved past us. But that’s because of idiots in the matrix like Jerry palm and that one dude who still has Wisconsin as a 1 seed

 

[chuckiepoo]

Based on the brackets updated just yesterday Wisconsin moved past us. But that’s because of idiots in the matrix like Jerry palm and that one dude who still has Wisconsin as a 1 seed

…don’t tell me. The matrix has outliers?

 

[golfballs]

Bracketing priciples:

"Natural region" is kind subjective. Basically go down the seed list to assign venue by distance. Though they don't always do this, for example when a team has been moved outside of their area in recent years, they'll try to get them closer, and may adjust the seed order to accommodate.

Although that's also one reason it's hard to assign such high probabilities to seeds.

They can move a team up to 2(!!) seed lines in order to meet bracketing principles! That's why statistical projections for bracketology are so difficult. And the way the construct the seed list. No way to model that with a high level of confidence

 

[Willy14]

Based on the brackets updated just yesterday Wisconsin moved past us. But that’s because of idiots in the matrix like Jerry palm and that one dude who still has Wisconsin as a 1 seed

So did we actually drop down to the last 3 seed? Or am I misunderstanding you?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So did we actually drop down to the last 3 seed? Or am I misunderstanding you?

He’s saying in just brackets updated yesterday yes, we dropped…but that’s a small sample size and is weighed down by a couple of folks who have Tennessee really low and Wisconsin really high. Once the full update happens and a bigger sample size it’s almost a certainty that they won’t jump us.

 

[Lankykong]

I still think we’re gonna end up as a 3. I wish we were a 2 since it seemed like the odds of doing well went up a lot with that one seed, but oh well

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Realistically, the difference between a 2 and a 3 isn’t all that important. We avoid the 1-seed either way, which is the biggest win in either scenario. What’s more important than whether we are a 2 or 3 is where we are placed and who the other 2/3 is.

 

[golfballs]

Realistically, the difference between a 2 and a 3 isn’t all that important. We avoid the 1-seed either way, which is the biggest win in either scenario. What’s more important than whether we are a 2 or 3 is where we are placed and who the other 2/3 is.

TeamRankings agrees w you

 

[Lankykong]

TeamRankings agrees w you
View attachment 436489

Ah, thanks. I was trying to remember that chart but couldn’t remember who it was from and remembered it a little wrong

 

[golfballs]

I just looked at his website and saw that Will Warren is an English major. This changes my opinion of him. He’s a hobbyist who is very interested in statistics seemingly without any formal education in the matter. Can’t really hold it against him if he doesn’t understand probabilities. In fact I admire his passion.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

2021-22 Bracketology, Vol. 1: where Tennessee stands, how they could rise/fall, and best/worst NCAA Tournament draws

This is an absolute hell of a read from Will Warren for those of you who follow him, really breaks down a bunch of things, few highlights….

-96% chance we are 1-6 seed.
-60% chance of 3-5 seed.
-most probable to be 4 seed.

19-11(10-8): 6.9 seed
20-10(11-7): 5.5 seed
21-9(12-6): 4.6 seed
22-8(13-5): 3.8 seed
23-7(14-4): 2.8 seed

Seemed to be pretty damn spot on 3 weeks ago with this post

 

[golfballs]

Seemed to be pretty damn spot on 3 weeks ago with this post

Well that’s not how this works, and his latest blog is saying 83% of a 3 seed. That’s according to T-rank which


Where does 83% even come from? Whats that based on?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Well that’s not how this works, and his latest blog is saying 83% of a 3 seed. That’s according to T-rank which
View attachment 436522

Where does 83% even come from? Whats that based on?

83% of the time it works every time


I just know that article/post from 3 weeks ago sure looks pretty accurate for being such crap

 

[golfballs]

How can you say 83% is accurate? What about 73%? Or 53%? Normally that’s based on observed data points. How can a system which has such poor historical accuracy predict with such high certainty that something is going to happen?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Send him a message and ask?

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

Well, I hope the statistics are worthless and we end up a 2 seed. I wanted to say a 1 seed, but I believe miracles have ceased.
My stats? Well, I just watched Now You See Me ...so almost anything is possible with a lot of careful planning, a planted suggestion, a little sleight of hand, and in helps when you have the smartest person in the room on your team.

 

[VolPack22]

Bracketing priciples:
View attachment 436477
"Natural region" is kind subjective. Basically go down the seed list to assign venue by distance. Though they don't always do this, for example when a team has been moved outside of their area in recent years, they'll try to get them closer, and may adjust the seed order to accommodate.
View attachment 436479
Although that's also one reason it's hard to assign such high probabilities to seeds.
View attachment 436478
They can move a team up to 2(!!) seed lines in order to meet bracketing principles! That's why statistical projections for bracketology are so difficult. And the way the construct the seed list. No way to model that with a high level of confidence
View attachment 436482

My lord it’s not that difficult. Every committee member just needs to write out their top 68 and tally them all up. It’s not rocket science lol

 

[golfballs]

Send him a message and ask?

I think his model is over-fitting recent brackets. He's giving us a 14% chance of a 1 seed, which is even higher odds than he gives us of winning out. So he's saying we could still get a 1 seed even if we don't win out. I agree it's a non-zero number, but I don't think that passes the sniff test. The committee is unpredictable, that's why these stat-based bracketologists have historically fared so poorly. I expect that as the comittee coninues to lean towards metrics that they will get significantly better, but I don't think these odds are actually representative of the real outcomes.

 

[BallerVolFan]

I saw where someone posted on Twitter that the committee has us as the 13th overall seed as of today. I’m not sure where they received that info but I thought there was only one reveal of the top 16. I don’t think that’s correct but where would they receive that info?

 

[VolPack22]

I saw where someone posted on Twitter that the committee has us as the 13th overall seed as of today. I’m not sure where they received that info but I thought there was only one reveal of the top 16. I don’t think that’s correct but where would they receive that info?

There’s no way they have access to that info. Also the NET has us at 8th overall right now. At worst we should be 11th in the committee’s eyes because that’s what we were at the reveal and we have since added another high quality win. Personally I think we are top 10 in their eyes.

 

[BallerVolFan]

There’s no way they have access to that info. Also the NET has us at 8th overall right now. At worst we should be 11th in the committee’s eyes because that’s what we were at the reveal and we have since added another high quality win. Personally I think we are top 10 in their eyes.

Exactly but I was just wondering what made them tweet that specific info that we were 13th in the “updated committee seeding” as of today. Obviously that wouldn’t make any sense to drop us but ???

 

[tbwhhs]

I saw where someone posted on Twitter that the committee has us as the 13th overall seed as of today. I’m not sure where they received that info but I thought there was only one reveal of the top 16. I don’t think that’s correct but where would they receive that info?

I think that is supposed to be referring to the Lady Vols. The women's committee that released their top 16 tonight.