Chance Each Playoff Contender Loses Another Game (FPI)

[VolMack——————$]

Regardless, given the way things are trending the possibility of a 2 loss team making it in is probably higher than its been in a while.

Very good chance TCU ends up a 2 loss, Clemson too. And possibly all the Pac 12 contenders.

That leaves an opening for an LSU (or other SEC Team).

Michigan's SOS is terrible and if the margin is bad against OSU, I don't think the committee is going to have trouble tossing them.

November is when they remember…lose late your out ! Michigan loses to Ohio State there gone !

 

[firestorm]

Yes, they would get in with 2 losses, in your scenario. LSU would become the SEC champion and advance to the playoffs.

The LSU Tigers did defeat a higher ranked Crimson Tide 32-31 in overtime , and the LSU Tigers defeating a great Bulldogs team in The SEC Championship game is a great statement win late in the 2022 College Football season.

Those are factual reasons why the LSU Tigers with 2 losses realistically can make the 4 teams College Football Playoffs.

 

[firestorm]

Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

Undeniably Tennessee does need a lot of help to make the 4 teams College Football Playoffs because the Volunteers 1st defeat was the Bulldogs easily defeating the Volunteers 27-13 in Georgia which happened late in the College Football season.

Also for all the stated reasons you said.

The Ducks have been playing great after that getting demolished by the Bulldogs which fortunately for them was the 1st game of the season so realistically the Ducks could make the 4 Teams College Football Playoffs if they don’t lose a second game.

 

[VolMack——————$]

Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

I think your making this to complicated. Very few voters are knocking us below #5. Remember we were just the # 1 team in the land. We’re sitting at #5 with a strength of schedule that’s strong…The SEC Strong ! Depending on scJr. And Missouri…there’s a good chance our schedule has 8 bowl eligible teams going bowling.! Michigan Oregon TCU I’ll admit is intriguing. But remember we’re sitting on the edge now and remember we were once #1. Just like your thinking on Clemson still having a chance. No….they don’t have a chance after that loss ! We need to look pretty and dominate our remaining games and we’re in. (Tennessee fans) need to hope for (good weather) games. Where Hendon and that offense puts up some (high scoring games). Nooooo ala Ohio States Vs Northwestern game. I’ll reiterate this again…
1)Tennessee was #1 CFB
2)Tennessee is the best 1 loss team PERIOD !
3)Hendon was #1 Heisman front runner
4)Hendon will still finish in the top 3
5)The offense may still finish #1 Yds/scoring
6))TCU/Oregon/USC/UCLA….Lose a game !
7)LSU 2 loss team…Back to #2

Tennessee just needs to be Tennessee and everything else will work itself out. VFL

 

[sjt18]

Chance UGA loses in SECCG- ~20%

Chance Michigan loses a game then beats OSU and wins Big 10- Less than 5%

Chance TCU goes undefeated- 3%

And as you mention the PAC 12 stands a great chance to rip itself a part in these final weeks


So while we don't control our destiny per say, we virtually do.

I personally think UT needs "style points" to be sure of getting in ahead of a one loss Michigan team and especially if they play tOSU tight.

To me the worst case scenario is that LSU beats an undefeated UGA team in the SEC CG. LSU would have a strong case and a first game loss that is easily excused. Watch where LSU is positioned this week. That will be critical.

 

[sjt18]

Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

I don't think most observers would consider the UT loss as terrible as you do. Other than that, I'd say you're close. The other nit I would pick is that UNC would be the greater danger from the ACC. Their only loss is to ND by a closer score than Clemson. Not saying they deserve to be in by any stretch... only that they are the more likely candidate and especially if they win the ACC.

 

[DownNDirty]

I don't think most observers would consider the UT loss as terrible as you do. Other than that, I'd say you're close. The other nit I would pick is that UNC would be the greater danger from the ACC. Their only loss is to ND by a closer score than Clemson. Not saying they deserve to be in by any stretch... only that they are the more likely candidate and especially if they win the ACC.

Committee pays attention to big games and we got a late TD or it could have been an even worse loss. UGA dominated in all facets of the game. I do agree on UNC as well. If they are 1 loss - or Clemson at 1 loss - either IMO would be ahead of us at the end of the year because there will be an overwhelming push and talking points for conference champs to get in over other 1 loss schools if they have the same record. And a 1 loss PAC 12 team will 100% be ahead of UT. And I think there's a good chance Clemson or UNC at 1 loss would be ahead of us as well. Because they would have won the ACC with one loss on the season. And then the sneaky OSU/Michigan thing if the game is great and it's close even if TCU loses and the ACC OR Pac 12 have a conference champs that lose 2 games - there's going to be a push for it to be the year for two Big 10 teams to get in. Because you could have something like #1 UGA undefeated, #2 Michigan undefeated, #3 (one loss Pac 12 or 1 loss ACC) and #4 OSU.

The other thing is what if - just imagine - Alabama losing to Ole Miss this weekend and either Arkansas or A&M taking down LSU before the year is over with. Then you could have a 1 loss Ole Miss against a 1 loss UGA in the SECCG. What if Ole Miss wins that? Ole Miss and UGA could both be in at 1 loss and UT may have 1 loss as well with their best win then being over a 3 loss Bama or 3 loss LSU. That's highly unlikely IMO but that's also an outside shot. Or even if LSU doesn't lose and Ole Miss runs the table there's always a chance they could jump UT. You never know.

 

[DeepSpringsVol]

No way SEC gets 3 teams. If LSU beats Georgia that loss to Florida State still won't be forgotten. They will go to the Sugar Bowl as SEC champs. The Big 10 champ Ohio st or Michigan will be #1. I am confident Georgia would only fall to #2.

If TCU unbeaten they are in. Lose they are out.
The Pac12 the USC/UCLA winner picks up a top 10 win late. Oregon if they beat Utah and Washington for 2 more solid wins. Then the Pac12 champion would have 1 loss no matter it be the USC/UCLA winner vs Oregon. So that's at least 2 top 6-10 wins late in the season for the Pac 12 champion especially if its say USC which is appealing to television because their brand and their coach Lincoln Riley. If its Oregon another top 10 win and I get the feeling like OP that their game with Georgia will be viewed as so long ago and like 2000 miles from home they may get a reprieve. Either way if USC/UCLA/Oregon if only 1 loss and has a conference championship to go with it will be hard to ignore.

Clemson you would think should be the afterthought with getting embarrassed at a not great but average to above average Notre Dame team. However a win over say a 1 loss NC team who has survived some wild games and people know it and is why they are ranked so low. It still places them in a punchers chance with an ACC championship of getting 4th spot. Thats the longest shot I see.

No comes our delimma. We inherit 3 teams to finish season which is great if all we need is to finish with only the 1 loss. However our strength of schedule and big wins is our biggest asset and we have no chance to get anymore. Meanwhile all of our competitors do. Hopefully if the committee is fair, and after Georgia and Michigan/Ohio st loser the choices and its a list of 1loss teams they see we actually not only won big games early but our loss was in a hostile environment.

Sucks 2 spots for like 3-5 teams. By losing the UGA game we left our fate in the committees hands. We only partially control our own destiny.

 

[lifeisdeep]

No way in hell two Big 10 teams get in - that’s silly. They’re not going to throw out SOS, which is what would have to happen for that scenario. If we win out and UGA wins the SECCG, we should be in and probably are. There is precedent, multiple years including last year.

 

[sjt18]

Committee pays attention to big games and we got a late TD or it could have been an even worse loss. UGA dominated in all facets of the game. I do agree on UNC as well. If they are 1 loss - or Clemson at 1 loss - either IMO would be ahead of us at the end of the year because there will be an overwhelming push and talking points for conference champs to get in over other 1 loss schools if they have the same record. And a 1 loss PAC 12 team will 100% be ahead of UT. And I think there's a good chance Clemson or UNC at 1 loss would be ahead of us as well. Because they would have won the ACC with one loss on the season. And then the sneaky OSU/Michigan thing if the game is great and it's close even if TCU loses and the ACC OR Pac 12 have a conference champs that lose 2 games - there's going to be a push for it to be the year for two Big 10 teams to get in. Because you could have something like #1 UGA undefeated, #2 Michigan undefeated, #3 (one loss Pac 12 or 1 loss ACC) and #4 OSU.

The other thing is what if - just imagine - Alabama losing to Ole Miss this weekend and either Arkansas or A&M taking down LSU before the year is over with. Then you could have a 1 loss Ole Miss against a 1 loss UGA in the SECCG. What if Ole Miss wins that? Ole Miss and UGA could both be in at 1 loss and UT may have 1 loss as well with their best win then being over a 3 loss Bama or 3 loss LSU. That's highly unlikely IMO but that's also an outside shot. Or even if LSU doesn't lose and Ole Miss runs the table there's always a chance they could jump UT. You never know.

There are a lot of scenarios. I think the howls would be loud but there's some bias against the ACC. I think most realize it is a very weak conference without a marquee program at the moment. UNC would still make its case. I honestly think pretty much everyone else would have to have 2 losses for Clemson to get in at this point. They were dominated by a team nowhere near the quality of UGA.

I honestly don't think the committee will view the UGA loss as dimly as you do if the Vols win out impressively. To me, that changes if they struggle with any of the last 3. UGA was dominant but they didn't run away with it largely because UT's D stood up. They came in the "question mark" and left being the unit that allowed UGA its lowest point and yardage output of the year. Bowers was limited to 34 yds total. I think everyone in CFB would look at UGA's performance and have to honestly say that there's no other team in CFB who could have done any better. UGA is a great team that played at the peak of its potential... and UT lost by 2 TD's with numerous opportunities to make it closer.

 

[lifeisdeep]

All you hand-wringers saying conference champs get preference over SOS - have you been living under a rock? They just put two SEC teams in a year ago.

 

[sjt18]

All you hand-wringers saying conference champs get preference over SOS - have you been living under a rock? They just put two SEC teams in a year ago.

Who were those two teams though? Their "sales pitch" was better than UT's will be this year... including the perception of their talent levels due to the recruiting rankings.

The Pac12 could produce a 1 loss champion out of Oregon, UCLA, and USC. The competition and hurdles they will have overcome will make a very good resume.

If TCU can find a way to finish undefeated then they're in.

UT needs some of these teams to take additional losses.

 

[Manchester Vol]

There will be 5 SEC teams ranked in the top 10 Tuesday. We will likely be ranked 4th and keep that spot until OSU- Michigan play. Loser of that game will likely be 4th with Vols to 3rd.

It will be SEC vs B10 in the playoffs.

I prefer this outcome. But, I would be shocked if the committee puts us at four right now.

I will go outside and yell “Go VOLS” really loud. Loud enough to scare wildlife. By wildlife I mean like tigers and alligators and other sissy like critters.

 

[LordBolton]

If I had to bet on the playoff matchups right now:

1 UGA v 4 TCU
2 OSU v 3 UT

 

[DownNDirty]

All you hand-wringers saying conference champs get preference over SOS - have you been living under a rock? They just put two SEC teams in a year ago.

Last year the ACC winner had 2 losses and the Big 12 winner had 2 losses. The Pac 12 winner had 3 losses. Last year was so chaotic Cincinnati was able to get in based on them being undefeated. OSU had 2 losses. This year the Big 10 winner could be undefeated and 2nd could have 1 loss. The Pac 12 winner could be one loss. The ACC winner could have one loss. Heck the Big 12 winner could be TCU and undefeated but they could also just have one loss.

There is virtually no similarity from last year to this year.

 

[J C Higgins]

The most important thing for us right now is to win the remainder of our games because if we don't all of these discussions and projections become irrelevant to us.

 

[Boone&Crockett]

Per ESPN as of 11/6

Tennessee 23%
Alabama 38%
UGA 39%
OSU 46%
Clemson 64%
Michigan 79%
Utah 80%
Oregon 84%
USC 85%
UCLA 89%
UNC 90%
LSU 91%
TCU 97%
OM 98%

I haven't seen this posted here, but really illustrates just how great of a situation we are in. If we win out, there is practically no question that we are in.

GBO! Playoff Bound!

I sure hope this plays out

 

[WillisWG]

I prefer this outcome. But, I would be shocked if the committee puts us at four right now.

I will go outside and yell “Go VOLS” really loud. Loud enough to scare wildlife. By wildlife I mean like tigers and alligators and other sissy like critters.

Hope I hear you in Normandy

 

[Manchester Vol]

Hope I hear you in Normandy

I’ll face SW when yelling.

 

[WillisWG]

I’ll face SW when yelling.

Election day, machine judge at Bell Buckle. Polls don't close until 7...so little bit towards the NW should work.

 

[walkenvol]

Missed Alabama at first, but anyone counting them out actually should look again. They aren't totally gone either. As much as I hate to say it.

No non conference champ with 2 losses is getting in

 

[atilla]

UT needs style points big time in these next 3 games and I think they will do it. CFB's rivalry game in 2.5 weeks will be a real tussel. They are both really good teams. If either the wolverines or buckeyes win by more than 10 points then UT stands a good chance of getting in....... If it is 7 points or less then it looks bad.

 

[Manchester Vol]

Election day, machine judge at Bell Buckle. Polls don't close until 7...so little bit towards the NW should work.

A judge!!?

Do you grade on stance or completion time?

 

[bpalmer28]

Tennessee having such a decisive loss to UGA LATE in the season is going to be a bigger deal than anyone with orange colored glasses cares to admit IMO.

Tennessee needs a lot of things to happen to make the playoff.....

1. UGA needs to stay undefeated and win in the SECCG. IF they lose to LSU it's not a given the committee wouldn't have a 2 loss LSU in front of Tennessee. Because it's a what have you done for me lately type of world and LSU on a heater by beating UGA would overcome an early season loss to UT.

2. Ohio State and Michigan either need to lose a game outside of their big matchup or their game needs to be a blowout. I could very easily see a game that's something like 38-34, 28-24 etc with it being very competitive and coming down to the wire giving the loser of that game an edge over UT in the playoff selection committee's minds.

3. TCU needs to lose - plain and simple. If they don't they will 100% occupy the 3rd spot.

4. Oregon needs to lose and the PAC-12 needs to be chaotic. May need Oregon, USC, and UCLA to all lose again. I think any of these teams with one loss would jump Tennessee. You may say well Oregon got boatraced by UGA. But again, it's a what have you done for me lately type of scenario. The bloom is now off of the UT rose. Oregon got decimated by UGA in the opening game of the season and since then - even if it's not in the best conference in the world - they've been flashy and putting up tons of points. Take yourself outside of being a UT fan and just a CFB fan. I think it could very easily be argued that UGA/Oregon would be a much more intriguing matchup in the playoff than a UGA/UT rematch since the Oregon team that lost to UGA is now a whole new animal.

5. Clemson very well may need to lose again. I know they've looked like dog crap and just got beat down by Notre Dame. But if they win out their past success AND the fact it's another conference would possibly help Clemson get in over Tennessee. I think Clemson is hot garbage so there's a chance they could lose to Louisville this weekend or in the ACC Championship game either one.

I think UT needs a lot of help to get in the playoff. And I don't see that much chaos happening to help them make it in. My gut feeling is that UGA goes unbeaten and is the #1 seed, Michigan edges OSU in the Big 10 title game and is #2, TCU wins out and is #3, and #4 is very close on who makes it but Ohio State gets in barely over a 1 loss Oregon as the #4, Oregon is #5, and Tennessee is a distant #6 and not even the first team out.

Keep things in perspective though - the sheer fact this is even up for discussion this late in the season is a miracle. If UT gets left out it is what it is and just hope they make it to the Sugar Bowl and gets a W. I'd love to see them absolutely boatrace Clemson and it would be an interesting non-playoff matchup.

We've already gotten the help we needed with Clemson and Alabama losing. I know you are afraid of seeing us on a neutral field, but this is all just wishful thinking on your part. That, or a well-timed troll attempt. Substance is lacking tho.

 

[igotworms]

97% is way too high for TCU, but I do think they'll lose one; probably to Texas next week. They have the toughest remaining schedule of all the contenders.

Michigan-Ohio State will be a lot like Tenn-GA. We'll have to see how that one shakes out, but Ohio State winning probably helps us more than Michigan. Michigan just doesn't have a lot of quality wins this year and a loss feels like it hurts their odds more than Ohio State's.

Fwiw, I think Ohio State wins it all this year. And our team this year is maybe comparable to the 1995 and 1989 teams; not quite elite, but in that next tier.

Wtf is a "quality" win for Ohio St?
Pathetic if you think they have anything but a high school schedule