Chance Each Playoff Contender Loses Another Game (FPI)

[DownNDirty]

We've already gotten the help we needed with Clemson and Alabama losing. I know you are afraid of seeing us on a neutral field, but this is all just wishful thinking on your part. That, or a well-timed troll attempt. Substance is lacking tho.

I'm not a troll and have been on this forum since 2004. I just have lurked the past decade for the most part because we kept hiring the most mind boggling coaches on the planet to run this program. I don't know why you say "I" am afraid of seeing you on a neutral field. I'm a lifelong Tennessee fan. I'm just being realistic and saying that WE need to keep our expectations in check or there's a very good chance there's going to be a huge case of the "orange butt" when the final playoff rankings come out.

 

[bpalmer28]

I'm not a troll and have been on this forum since 2004. I just have lurked the past decade for the most part because we kept hiring the most mind boggling coaches on the planet to run this program. I don't know why you say "I" am afraid of seeing you on a neutral field. I'm a lifelong Tennessee fan. I'm just being realistic and saying that WE need to keep our expectations in check or there's a very good chance there's going to be a huge case of the "orange butt" when the final playoff rankings come out.

I don't care how long you've been here. The idea of a 1-loss Big 10 school or a 1-loss Clemson getting in ahead of a 1-loss Tennessee is complete trash. There's nothing "realistic" about it. Our resume far exceeds most potential 1-loss teams in the country. The only one that's close is the Pac-12 1-loss champ and that won't be enough to keep us out of the playoffs unless TCU also wins out.

 

[ZippyMorocco]

What if LSU beats UGA in the SECCG? Does a 2 loss LSU team get in???

They did once before in BCS

 

[bpalmer28]

The LSU Tigers did defeat a higher ranked Crimson Tide 32-31 in overtime , and the LSU Tigers defeating a great Bulldogs team in The SEC Championship game is a great statement win late in the 2022 College Football season.

Those are factual reasons why the LSU Tigers with 2 losses realistically can make the 4 teams College Football Playoffs.

That being a factual reason doesn't make it a good reason. You can't ignore the fact that they lost to Florida State. And you can't ignore the fact that we destroyed them on their home field.

 

[VOLtaism]

I think this would be the first year. But if they are debating 2 loss LSU and 1 loss Tennessee that beat them 40-13, we win that.

I don't think we can rely on that win. If LSU wins out and is SEC champ they will be on a long win streak with a championship belt. I don't see them being sent to the Sugar Bowl in that case.

 

[SockeyeVol]

Election day, machine judge at Bell Buckle. Polls don't close until 7...so little bit towards the NW should work.

Bell buckle? I went to HS there. Blast from the past!

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Another interesting factor is UNC has more of a chance to go undefeated from here on out than 3 of these teams (about 10%)

So if anyone wants a wildcard long shot to root for, it is them lol

I’d root for the Taliban long shot football team before I’d pull for them.

 

[DownNDirty]

I don't care how long you've been here. The idea of a 1-loss Big 10 school or a 1-loss Clemson getting in ahead of a 1-loss Tennessee is complete trash. There's nothing "realistic" about it. Our resume far exceeds most potential 1-loss teams in the country. The only one that's close is the Pac-12 1-loss champ and that won't be enough to keep us out of the playoffs unless TCU also wins out.

No need to get so defensive. I actually hope you are right. And no my tenure here has no bearing on the comment but you were insinuating that I was a UGA fan - or so I thought - so I was trying to clarify that I'm actually a huge UT fan. I have a scar on my right hand as proof - when we lost to Memphis State in 1996 I ran my hand through a wooden breakroom table at my job - and shot the bone straight through the skin.

I'm just trying to keep my expectations in check and realize that we do not control our own destiny.

 

[VolInDayton]

This is why we shouldn't react to media hyping up other teams. They are trying to build storylines of "what ifs" for things that WONT happen.

 

[bpalmer28]

No need to get so defensive. I actually hope you are right. And no my tenure here has no bearing on the comment but you were insinuating that I was a UGA fan - or so I thought - so I was trying to clarify that I'm actually a huge UT fan. I have a scar on my right hand as proof - when we lost to Memphis State in 1996 I ran my hand through a wooden breakroom table at my job - and shot the bone straight through the skin.

I'm just trying to keep my expectations in check and realize that we do not control our own destiny.

Based on your profile pic, I thought you were an LGBTQIA Bulldog. My apologies.

 

[AthensVol2007]

I don't care how long you've been here. The idea of a 1-loss Big 10 school or a 1-loss Clemson getting in ahead of a 1-loss Tennessee is complete trash. There's nothing "realistic" about it. Our resume far exceeds most potential 1-loss teams in the country. The only one that's close is the Pac-12 1-loss champ and that won't be enough to keep us out of the playoffs unless TCU also wins out.

One thing to keep in mind, is the precedent has been set that only once has a 1-loss, outright P5 champ been left out and that was Ohio St in 2018-19. That year there were 3 undefeated P-5 teams and a 12-1 OU Big 12 champ, who lost by 3 to TX, while Ohio St lost by 29 to Purdue. I believe UT is better than a 1-loss TCU or USC/UCLA/UO team but the committee has shown that they traditionally value/heavily weigh conference titles.

 

[bpalmer28]

One thing to keep in mind, is the precedent has been set that only once has a 1-loss, outright P5 champ been left out and that was Ohio St in 2018-19. That year there were 3 undefeated P-5 teams and a 12-1 OU Big 12 champ, who lost by 3 to TX, while Ohio St lost by 29 to Purdue. I believe UT is better than a 1-loss TCU or USC/UCLA/UO team but the committee has shown that they traditionally value/heavily weigh conference titles.

Gosh dang it you're right. I thought surely there was a 1-loss champ that didn't make it last year, but no. Utah, Baylor, and Pittsburg all had 2 losses.

 

[atilla]

Wtf is a "quality" win for Ohio St?
Pathetic if you think they have anything but a high school schedule

Really, not according to reliable SOS services like Sagarin and Steele...... Sagarin OSU (1) UT (5), Steele OSU (14) UT (27).

Team rankings has UT (3) OSU (4) I will say that P-State, ND, and Michigan are pretty good teams.

 

[TnScooby]

JMHO here, but Vols will be #5 in CFP tonight..OSU #2 Meechigan #3 and TCU #4..OSU beats MU by at least 3 scores and puts them behind UT..No one else has the resume to pass UT w/o a Vol's loss (ain't happenin')..A 14 point loss at Ga (who wins SEC Championship game) still looks better than any other team's 1 loss this year..UT in the CFP..Again, JMHO.....

Flame away

 

[AthensVol2007]

JMHO here, but Vols will be #5 in CFP tonight..OSU #2 Meechigan #3 and TCU #4..OSU beats MU by at least 3 scores and puts them behind UT..No one else has the resume to pass UT w/o a Vol's loss (ain't happenin')..A 14 point loss at Ga (who wins SEC Championship game) still looks better than any other team's 1 loss this year..UT in the CFP..Again, JMHO.....

Flame away

Better than a 12-1 PAC-12 champ USC whose only loss is by 1pt (on a game winning 2pt conversion) on the road at Utah? They’ll end their year with wins over UCLA, ND and Oregon and a conference championship. I agree we’re a better team, I’m just not sure I trust fallible humans with agendas/biases to make the correct call.

 

[ftsandersvol]

A #1-rated program that ends up with only one loss that happened to be against the defending national champion, who is now #1, will still have more weight and merit than any other one-loss program.

 

[Matt2496]

If TCU loses this weekend our chances of making the playoffs go up exponentially. I will be pulling for both UTs.

The only other team I could see getting into the playoffs over us would be Oregon. However, Oregon lost by 46 to Georgia and we only lost by 13. That should be a consideration by the playoff committee, but our loss being so recent and fresh may hurt us. Oregon still has to play Utah and that is their highest chance of losing.

The Big 10 will sort itself out in the Michigan Ohio State game.

In summary:

If TCU and Oregon lose a game, we’re in.

If TCU wins out and Oregon loses we’re in.

If TCU loses and Oregon wins out we’re in.

If TCU and Oregon win out, it becomes a much smaller probability but not impossible for us to make the playoffs.

Now another added complication would be if LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game. However, I still don’t see a 2 loss team that got blown out by us making it into the playoffs ahead of us. Therefore, I don’t think the SEC Championship game makes much difference either way it goes.

 

[DownNDirty]

Based on your profile pic, I thought you were an LGBTQIA Bulldog. My apologies.

No worries. I am an old school wrestling fan. The profile picture is of Exotic Adrian Street. He played a gimmick in the South of making people think he was gay back in the late 70s-late 80s. He would be in many pretty rough towns in the southeastern loop and have plenty of testosterone or alcohol infused rednecks trying to "whip him" on a nightly basis. What they didn't realize is twofold 1) Street was just a character and a full blooded heterosexual male and 2) even though he dressed and acted like he did and was only about 5'5 he was a legitimate shooter and could fight with the best of them. He has written several books and has a heck of a story.

 

[Manchester Vol]

A judge!!?

Do you grade on stance or completion time?

I voted at New Union - no line at all.

 

[DaddyChad]

How do they Figure Georgia is that likely to lose

They have an extra game as do a lot of these teams in the conference title. They would be less likely to lose if they were playing one less game. All of that said Georgia ain’t gonna lose unless we beat them. No one else in the country can beat them.

 

[utchs81]

Sure. But they would be SEC Champs. Has the SEC Champions ever been left out? Cant remember if any had 2 losses.

I was thinking the same thing but I think it might be a first. Really, really don't expect that to happen though

 

[bpalmer28]

Sure. But they would be SEC Champs. Has the SEC Champions ever been left out? Cant remember if any had 2 losses.

The committee gives respect to conference champs, but there are no automatic qualifiers. All this would be much easier if that were the case though. Think we'll eventually see them expand the playoffs and do just that. Be nice if it was just 5 conference champs plus 3 at large bids.

 

[ZippyMorocco]

UT is in. Michigan's SOS is terrible.

 

[SockeyeVol]

After looking at it all, I think our main threat comes from a 1-loss Pac-12 champion:

Here's the list of 0- or 1-loss teams not named GA or OH St., along with the FPI of their remaining opponents.

1. Ole Miss (8-1). FPI = 14.3. Remaining opponent FPI of 44.7 (Bama, Arkansas, Miss St.). Ouch.
2. TCU - (9-0). FPI = 13.5. Remaining opponent FPI of 41.6 (Texas, Baylor, Iowa St.). Ouch.
3. Michigan (9-0). FPI = 23.5. Remaining Opp FPI of 36.1 (NEB, IL, OSU).
4. Oregon (8-1). FPI = 15.7. Remaining Opp FPI of 30.7 (WA, Utah, Ore St.). Tough schedule.
5. USC (8-1). FPI = 13.9. Remaining Opp FPI of 23.8 (UCLA, Notre Dame, misc). Tough schedule.
6. Clemson (8-1). FPI = 17.0. Remaining Opp FPI of 13.7 (Lou, Miami, SC).
7. Tennessee (8-1). FPI = 21.3. Remaining Opp FPI of -1.4 (Mizzou, SC, Vandy). Easiest remaining schedule of everyone.

Summary thoughts:

• Ole Miss and TCU will each lose once more and be out.
• Clemson can win out and still be left out of Top 4.
• A 1-loss Michigan (or OSU) team will still have a really high FPI/strength of schedule.
• Tennessee can win out, but their strength of schedule is going to really drop now.
• USC and OR each losing once more REALLY helps us.
• There are still some potential "Black Swan" events that could really help us - Michigan loses to IL (and then OSU), for example.

I think our main threat comes from 2 of USC, Oregon, or Michigan ending with one loss. Each of these could argue for a stronger recent schedule and get put at #4 with just one loss.

My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.

Updated after Week 11. Important losses by Oregon and UCLA (and Ole Miss to a lesser extent) that will help our cause.
In Week 12, Baylor (vs TCU) and Notre Dame (vs USC) can reallly help us.

Here's the list of 0- or 1-loss teams not named GA or OH St., along with the FPI of their remaining opponents.

1. Ole Miss (8-1). FPI = 14.3. Remaining opponent FPI of 44.7 (Bama, Arkansas, Miss St.). Ouch. Now 8-2, out of it
2. TCU - (9-0). FPI = 13.5. Remaining opponent FPI of 41.6 (Texas, Baylor, Iowa St.). Ouch. Now 10-0, still in picture.
3. Michigan (9-0). FPI = 23.5. Remaining Opp FPI of 36.1 (NEB, IL, OSU). Now 10-0, still in picture.
4. Oregon (8-1). FPI = 15.7. Remaining Opp FPI of 30.7 (WA, Utah, Ore St.). Tough schedule. Now 8-2, out of it.
5. USC (8-1). FPI = 13.9. Remaining Opp FPI of 23.8 (UCLA, Notre Dame, misc). Tough schedule. Now 9-1, lone remaining Pac-12 threat.
6. Clemson (8-1). FPI = 17.0. Remaining Opp FPI of 13.7 (Lou, Miami, SC). 9-1, still hanging around.
7. Tennessee (8-1). FPI = 21.3. Remaining Opp FPI of -1.4 (Mizzou, SC, Vandy). Easiest remaining schedule of everyone. 9-1, still in it.

Summary thoughts:

• Ole Miss and TCU will each lose once more and be out. Ole Miss now out, TCU still in.
• Clemson can win out and still be left out of Top 4. Still relevant.
• A 1-loss Michigan (or OSU) team will still have a really high FPI/strength of schedule. Still relevant.
• Tennessee can win out, but their strength of schedule is going to really drop now. Statement game though.
• USC and OR each losing once more REALLY helps us. OR now out, USC still in.
• There are still some potential "Black Swan" events that could really help us - Michigan loses to IL (and then OSU), for example. Week 11: UCLA lost to Arizona, at home.

I think our main threat comes from 2 of USC, Oregon, or Michigan ending with one loss. Each of these could argue for a stronger recent schedule and get put at #4 with just one loss.

My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.[

 

[JoAllan]

Updated after Week 11. Important losses by Oregon and UCLA (and Ole Miss to a lesser extent) that will help our cause.
In Week 12, Baylor (vs TCU) and Notre Dame (vs USC) can reallly help us.

Here's the list of 0- or 1-loss teams not named GA or OH St., along with the FPI of their remaining opponents.

1. Ole Miss (8-1). FPI = 14.3. Remaining opponent FPI of 44.7 (Bama, Arkansas, Miss St.). Ouch. Now 8-2, out of it
2. TCU - (9-0). FPI = 13.5. Remaining opponent FPI of 41.6 (Texas, Baylor, Iowa St.). Ouch. Now 10-0, still in picture.
3. Michigan (9-0). FPI = 23.5. Remaining Opp FPI of 36.1 (NEB, IL, OSU). Now 10-0, still in picture.
4. Oregon (8-1). FPI = 15.7. Remaining Opp FPI of 30.7 (WA, Utah, Ore St.). Tough schedule. Now 8-2, out of it.
5. USC (8-1). FPI = 13.9. Remaining Opp FPI of 23.8 (UCLA, Notre Dame, misc). Tough schedule. Now 9-1, lone remaining Pac-12 threat.
6. Clemson (8-1). FPI = 17.0. Remaining Opp FPI of 13.7 (Lou, Miami, SC). 9-1, still hanging around.
7. Tennessee (8-1). FPI = 21.3. Remaining Opp FPI of -1.4 (Mizzou, SC, Vandy). Easiest remaining schedule of everyone. 9-1, still in it.

Summary thoughts:

• Ole Miss and TCU will each lose once more and be out. Ole Miss now out, TCU still in.
• Clemson can win out and still be left out of Top 4. Still relevant.
• A 1-loss Michigan (or OSU) team will still have a really high FPI/strength of schedule. Still relevant.
• Tennessee can win out, but their strength of schedule is going to really drop now. Statement game though.
• USC and OR each losing once more REALLY helps us. OR now out, USC still in.
• There are still some potential "Black Swan" events that could really help us - Michigan loses to IL (and then OSU), for example. Week 11: UCLA lost to Arizona, at home.

I think our main threat comes from 2 of USC, Oregon, or Michigan ending with one loss. Each of these could argue for a stronger recent schedule and get put at #4 with just one loss.

My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.[

Tennessee was #1 they lost by 14 on the road to Georgia (the now #1) Tennessee moved 4 spots down to 5th.

You seriously think if Michigan were to lose to OSU they don’t move at all?

If TCU loses Tennessee is 3rd.