Da Reds thread

#11,252
#11,252
Vols4us said:
You can quote stats and still miss when the stats are most applicable. You can have a handful of games that went very well for a particular stat and skew a whole season if you do not remove the outliers and tie the stats to winning and losing. Key hits, my man, key hits. Maybe I should have said key hits with RISP leading to RBI's that matter in my post.

Earlier ITT you said we struck out all the time w/ RISP, Byrd strikes out a ton and will be batting behind the "whiffmeister" Bruce. You continued on, saying we need contact hitters. I was simply pointing out that our K% with RISP was in the same ballpark as the highest scoring teams in MLB for 2014. I was trying to convey that our problem wasn't that we K too much w/ RISP, but that we weren't hardly getting RISP to begin with.

So to keep it simple:

In 2012: scored 669 runs, gave up 588 = 97 wins.
In 2013: scored 698 runs, gave up 589 = 90 wins.
In 2014: scored 595 runs, gave up 612 = 76 wins.

So you're saying whoever scores the most runs wins? I don't think I've ever said anything to argue that.

So the high OBP of Votto in 2013 with low RBI production in the #3 spot did not result in more wins despite scoring more runs - there were 7 less wins. Without Votto in 2012 when they got 3 months of abnormally high production from Ludwick they actual won 7 more games than 2013 despite scoring 29 fewer runs on the season. The reason was Ludwick and others were getting key hits to drive in runs when it mattered most for the win column. When the offensive spigot turned off in 2014 by over 100 runs due to injuries, 3rd base coach Smith sending runners to get thrown out at home 26 or more times, Price kept using Groover, Ondrusuk, Parra ad nauseum, etc. - it all tanked despite getting the best starting pitching in years. They were upside down in one run game losses.

IMO champy is also right on throwing out the stats at the start of each year. If you didn't start fresh you would have no reason to believe this team could contend - which is shared by 90+% of the analysts that are predicting a 4th or 5th place finish in the division. Use them as tools to work on deficiencies and spot trends of opponents, but numbers and situations change. When the season is over you will be able to tie the production of runs scored versus runs allowed to the win column. What you will have to remember, or track, is all the key hits. Game #1 Todd Frazier. Game #2 Several guys with the final key hit being Joey Votto. Game #3 Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, Marlon Byrd. The later two were winning one run games. A better start to the season.

Pretty sure I have been the optimist throughout this discussion. I don't agree with the analysts. Again, you're simply saying whoever scores the most runs wins. Whether these "key hits" come early or late in the game makes no difference. If we're winning close games then it can be attributed to many different factors besides "key hits".

At the end of the day we still have deficiencies in our offensive depth, starting rotation and middle relief. Not to mention an unproven manager. I think if Leake, Bailey and DeSclafani can give us consistent quality starts then our offense, if healthy, can score enough to win games. No worries about Chapman at the end. It's a long season, anything can happen.

And I do understand stats - all of them. I just don't worship them or base analysis totally on quantitative measures or totally subjective valuations.

I agree with you here and I don't worship them either. I was using them in this instance to make my point. But you can definitely learn a lot from analyzing the stats. I honestly had no idea how good/bad we were w/ RISP in regards to K rate. I didn't know such a high % of RBI producers struck out as much as they did. I think stats can help point to the truth, because our eyes and emotions don't tell the whole story; and neither do stats.
Click to expand...
I'm happy with the start to our season and hope we can keep it up. I also hope we can all enjoy it together ITT. Go Reds! :rock:
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#11,256
#11,256
I'm loving this start. Votto seems rejuvinated and more dialed in than ever. Hamilton is a game changer.
Marquis pitched well too after giving up 3 early.
 
#11,257
#11,257
Appalachiamuck said:
I'm happy with the start to our season and hope we can keep it up. I also hope we can all enjoy it together ITT. Go Reds! :rock:
Click to expand...

With this we can agree. Great start to the season with a tough schedule. They don't even have half the club hitting yet. Good pitching, great defense, key hitting. Would love to see a 1990 WS run again.

We all want JV to be the best he can be for his sake and the club. He needs to be at $20+ mill per season starting next year. He can still butcher a grounder with the best of them, but if he can make up for it at the plate I don't mind it as much. His attitude so far this season will win the fans and his teammates back. Love it so far.

The Billy Bashers can go pound sand. Best thing that's happened to the club in years. If he stays healthy he will have 125+ steals this season to go with that great D. He adds 1 run per game if he can get his OBP up to the .350 range. The downturn last season in run production would have been unbelievably worse without him in the line-up. They would have recorded a 60-65 win season instead of 76 IMO.

Best regards to you Appa.
 
#11,260
#11,260
zjcvols said:
Did Votto trim down? Looks like he lost some weight.
Click to expand...
I noticed that too, but haven't heard any talk about it. Trimmed down, shaved the head & mashing so far. He's swiped a couple bags too.

I'd be pretty happy with this type of production from him - .300/.400/.490, 20+ HR, 90 R, 75 RBI, 10 SB

Tough loss today with Cueto on the bump. It's frustrating when he goes 7 giving up 1 ER and we still lose. Our middle relief scares me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#11,262
#11,262
Appalachiamuck said:
I noticed that too, but haven't heard any talk about it. Trimmed down, shaved the head & mashing so far. He's swiped a couple bags too.

I'd be pretty happy with this type of production from him - .300/.400/.490, 20+ HR, 90 R, 75 RBI, 10 SB

Tough loss today with Cueto on the bump. It's frustrating when he goes 7 giving up 1 ER and we still lose. Our middle relief scares me.
Click to expand...

They said on the telecast of the first game Votto's rehab was intensive and part of it was to lose weight to reduce strain on the bad leg. The work he put in shows up big time. Bruce and BP also trimmed down. Bruce worked on his knee rehab and BP dropped 15 lbs. to increase quickness.

The club did this early on to Cueto last year as well. .064 ERA so far and a 0-1 record to show for it. Half the order is asleep at the wheel. Time to start stringing some hits together and stop depending on the long ball every game.
 
#11,264
#11,264
What did he do? I just checked in on MLB GameDay to see Frazier single and drive in two, giving us 4-3 lead!

And what did he do to cost them the game yesterday?
 
Last edited:
#11,268
#11,268
Appalachiamuck said:
What did he do? I just checked in on MLB GameDay to see Frazier single and drive in two, giving us 4-3 lead!

And what did he do to cost them the game yesterday?
Click to expand...

That's quite a stretch to say he cost them the game. Early on he had an error on a sharp grounder that ended up costing them/Cueto an unearned run. I may have missed something else, but that was all I caught.
 
#11,269
#11,269
Appalachiamuck said:
1st and 2nd with no outs and we can't manufacture a run. Wow.
Click to expand...

This is what I have been talking about with getting key hits. Maybe they will get it together at some point. Bad mojo with this team at times. Even in the 10th Billy had the full count and the ump called a strike on a pitch 6" outside the strike zone per Foxtrax for a K. So next they pitch around Votto to walk him to get the Frazier, who isn't patient and strikes out.

In the second inning Boesch clearly legs out a hit and the replay shows he is safe, yet, Price chooses not to appeal. Why - because he lost an appeal the previous game. Ridiculous. So they get a couple of runners on with a wild pitch mixed in and you would think you would get at least one run out of it all if it goes down the same way if Boesch gets the hit. But we will never know because Price didn't appeal. Just like Price going with this year's Groover and using Gregg. He has been bad each time since the season started. He might want to rethink using him when it matters.
 
#11,271
#11,271
Vols4us said:
That's quite a stretch to say he cost them the game. Early on he had an error on a sharp grounder that ended up costing them/Cueto an unearned run. I may have missed something else, but that was all I caught.
Click to expand...
I was asking champy what Price had done to cost us game(s); specifically referring to this instance when he posted it.

Vols4us said:
This is what I have been talking about with getting key hits. Maybe they will get it together at some point. Bad mojo with this team at times. Even in the 10th Billy had the full count and the ump called a strike on a pitch 6" outside the strike zone per Foxtrax for a K. So next they pitch around Votto to walk him to get the Frazier, who isn't patient and strikes out.

In the second inning Boesch clearly legs out a hit and the replay shows he is safe, yet, Price chooses not to appeal. Why - because he lost an appeal the previous game. Ridiculous. So they get a couple of runners on with a wild pitch mixed in and you would think you would get at least one run out of it all if it goes down the same way if Boesch gets the hit. But we will never know because Price didn't appeal. Just like Price going with this year's Groover and using Gregg. He has been bad each time since the season started. He might want to rethink using him when it matters.
Click to expand...
Key hits...I just can't get over you putting so much emphasis on this. It's a 9 inning game. Key hits, and plays, occur throughout. They have been pretty good so far this season about getting "key hits". I suppose you could argue that they need to be more "clutch" late in the game in high pressure situations, but we already have 2 walk offs this season, so...

If BP would have gotten the bunt down with runners @ 1st and 2nd w/ no outs
If our pen could have held onto a 2 run lead for an inning to hand the ball off to Chapman
If Price would have appealed the play w/ Boesch
If, if, if...

There are so many other factors that help determine the outcome of a game and not just these "key hits" you keep referring to. I guess I should just stop arguing this with you, we're not getting anywhere, lol.

I guess everyone has their thoughts on being aggressive or patient in at bats. But I'm of the opinion that in the 10th w/ Frazier's situation, bases loaded 2 outs, he's going to see a first pitch fastball a decent amount of the time. He's generally not an incredibly impatient hitter either. I guess you think he should have looked at a strike before even taking a hack?

I agree that Price seems to be in way over his head. Great pitching coach, poor manager. Today is a game we should have won.
 
Last edited:
#11,272
#11,272
Appalachiamuck said:
What did he do? I just checked in on MLB GameDay to see Frazier single and drive in two, giving us 4-3 lead!

And what did he do to cost them the game yesterday?
Click to expand...

he left bradenhoof or whatever his name in there to give up 3 runs. the guy needs to be in the minors. also the way he pinch hits, bunts people, and horrible line up changes. he is the worst manager in baseball he has no clue.
 
#11,275
#11,275
Appalachiamuck said:
I was asking champy what Price had done to cost us game(s); specifically referring to this instance when he posted it.

Key hits...I just can't get over you putting so much emphasis on this. It's a 9 inning game. Key hits, and plays, occur throughout. They have been pretty good so far this season about getting "key hits". I suppose you could argue that they need to be more "clutch" late in the game in high pressure situations, but we already have 2 walk offs this season, so...

If BP would have gotten the bunt down with runners @ 1st and 2nd w/ no outs
If our pen could have held onto a 2 run lead for an inning to hand the ball off to Chapman
If Price would have appealed the play w/ Boesch
If, if, if...

There are so many other factors that help determine the outcome of a game and not just these "key hits" you keep referring to. I guess I should just stop arguing this with you, we're not getting anywhere, lol.

I guess everyone has their thoughts on being aggressive or patient in at bats. But I'm of the opinion that in the 10th w/ Frazier's situation, bases loaded 2 outs, he's going to see a first pitch fastball a decent amount of the time. He's generally not an incredibly impatient hitter either. I guess you think he should have looked at a strike before even taking a hack?

I agree that Price seems to be in way over his head. Great pitching coach, poor manager. Today is a game we should have won.
Click to expand...

IMO you got overly excited about a great start. Any of those first 4 games could have easily gone the other direction based on one play or AB. Let the season play out. But as always, we can agree to disagree and still be Reds fans wanting the best for our guys.

On Frazier - he has to be patient because the bases are loaded and a walk brings in the winning run. He's the #3 hitter now. It's a defensive AB. An an example, there is no way Votto would have handled the AB the way Frazier did. Frazier did it the way Bruce would have. The pitcher has already shown in the game and throughout his career he walks guys frequently. He was in a tough spot and Todd let him out. It's OK - it happens. None of us are perfect.

I keep hoping that Price will learn from his mistakes, but him continuing to make roster composition and usage mistakes is sort of a basic requirement for a manager. We can agree and disagree on sending runners, H&R, bunting, d-shifts/placements, etc. But not knowing you have dead wood on the roster and then using same in critical situations - ridiculous. Another example was sending Iglesias back down to get him more experience as a starter when half the pen is useless. Raisel has never been anything but a reliever in Cuba. They decided that he should be a starter for whatever reason - knowing he was not ready to be one. He gives them a few really good innings in his one start then runs out of gas. So time for him to go when Homer comes back instead of making him the one thing they don't have - a long reliever. Now this is the same club that just saw in the previous season the tremendous value of having a long reliever that can one day start if needed - Alfredo Simon. Raisel is not fresh out of HS or college. The Cuban league would be at minimum AAA quality for the top players/teams. there is no way he can be worse than Gregg or Badenhop - he actually has good talent and an active fastball. Whatever - just another in a long list 25 years removed from the last WS championship.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top