Da Reds thread

[Vols4us]

Same here. All the park improvements look good, but I'd rather spend my time/money on more enjoyable pursuits like golf and Hilton Head, like you will with your fishing. My grandson is too young to enjoy it anyway. Maybe by the time he is ready Jock will have retired and they will have made some of the moves they need to make.

 

[champyvol]

Same here. All the park improvements look good, but I'd rather spend my time/money on more enjoyable pursuits like golf and Hilton Head, like you will with your fishing. My grandson is too young to enjoy it anyway. Maybe by the time he is ready Jock will have retired and they will have made some of the moves they need to make.

going walleye fishing for first time this season next week. plan to be out there a lot this summer. have to take my wife to an Indians game since she likes them. maybe I'll go to the one when they play the reds.

 

[Vols4us]

going walleye fishing for first time this season next week. plan to be out there a lot this summer. have to take my wife to an Indians game since she likes them. maybe I'll go to the one when they play the reds.

Good walleye fishing near us on Norris Lake in east TN. Back in the day when I went more we used doll fiies and shiners. Later on when it warmed up would hit the weeds with crank bait. When the grandson gets old enough will hit Douglas Lake since it is within 20 minutes of home. It's more of a crappie/bass lake. Some walleye, but not near as good as Norris.

At least you have the Indians nearby. All I have is the Cubs AA affiliate. Get to see some Reds' prospects when the Wahoos are in town.

 

[Vols4us]

Got eyes on ST in AZ from a blog friend who goes to the games. Dependable source that knows baseball. Said Votto will be lucky to be the 2013 version from what he has seen so far. No push off his bad leg and his base running is even worse. Said Marlon Byrd looks like he reported at 300 lbs. - grossly overweight. Thinks the same things we do about the starting pitching situation. His words: the margin for error and injuries is razor thin.

 

[Wickman]

Cueto is a poon

 

[005]

So the lineup I see on rosterresource is...

Hamilton
Votto
Phillips
Mes
Bruce
Frazier
Byrd
Cozart

1. Is this what Reds fans expect it to be?

Follow-up: Why on earth would Phillips hit third?

 

[TBrown]

So the lineup I see on rosterresource is...

Hamilton
Votto
Phillips
Mes
Bruce
Frazier
Byrd
Cozart

1. Is this what Reds fans expect it to be?

Follow-up: Why on earth would Phillips hit third?

RBIzzzzz

 

[champyvol]

So the lineup I see on rosterresource is...

Hamilton
Votto
Phillips
Mes
Bruce
Frazier
Byrd
Cozart

1. Is this what Reds fans expect it to be?

Follow-up: Why on earth would Phillips hit third?

who knows with price. he will be looking for a new job after the season anyway. he will change the lineup at least 100 times this year

 

[Vols4us]

So the lineup I see on rosterresource is...

Hamilton
Votto
Phillips
Mes
Bruce
Frazier
Byrd
Cozart

1. Is this what Reds fans expect it to be?

Follow-up: Why on earth would Phillips hit third?

who knows with price. he will be looking for a new job after the season anyway. he will change the lineup at least 100 times this year

005 - As Champy posted it will change innumerable times. I lost count after 110 different opening line-ups last season. Injuries could explain maybe half that many. The rest were just being a doofus. They say he lets Jay Bell fill out the card. So that may be a major reason Jay Bell did not get a managerial job in the off season. Price admits to being essentially clueless about offense. BP is at best a #2 and at worst a #7. No way should he be hitting #3 or clean up. But Votto shows no signs of being a real #3 with that dead leg, with no speed to be a good #2. They are stuck as it sits now.

Which is another reason why Champy and I are so down on Jock. It all appears to be that they have set Price up as the scapegoat while they do a slow rebuild that seems to be more concerned with the ASG than with fielding a winning team. They brought Riggleman up from Louisville to take over as third base coach to get rid of the awful Smith. It stands to reason they brought him in to also shore up Price and be the manager at some point in the future when the fan base gives up. Unless there is a miracle season they will be selling Cueto and Chappy right after the ASG with Bruce and possibly Votto auctioned in the off season per several analysts.

 

[005]

Move Phillips below Byrd and everything is good to go.

 

[zjcvols]

Hamilton
Frazier
Votto
Mes
Byrd
Bruce
Phillips
Cosart

That would be mine

 

[zjcvols]

Also if everyone stays healthy that can be a top ten offense

 

[Appalachiamuck]

I hope 2014 was just an aberration because he was 40+ SO's higher than his worst season at 185. With him and Bruce folks will think they have the air conditioning on high at GABP with all the fanning going on. lol.

He will be 38. Solid pro that could help in the clubhouse. But the bat speed is slowing with that wild swing of his. Hope he will shorten up and drive it in the alleys more because the club really needs a RBI guy that can make good contact. Walter made the deal for the money and the 2 year rental. Phillies are reportedly paying $4 M of the $8 M this season.

You are nit picking his K's when he's been very good the last 2 seasons? Is there a chance his age catches up with him this year? Sure. But that isn't something we can project.

2013 - 579 PA, .291/.336/.511, 24 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI
2014 - 637 PA, .264/.312/.445, 25 HR, 71 R, 85 RBI

Everyone's K rate seems to be going up. Even with his going up last year he still produced. I don't care how much he strikes out if he hits 20+ HR and drives in 75+.

May lose him to a drug screen though, haha.

another season starts today. I predict a .500 season

I predict World Series champs. It must be miserable to always project gloom and doom.

So the lineup I see on rosterresource is...

Hamilton
Votto
Phillips
Mes
Bruce
Frazier
Byrd
Cozart

1. Is this what Reds fans expect it to be?

Follow-up: Why on earth would Phillips hit third?

I can't see BP batting 3rd, but you never know with Price. I'd probably go with this to start the season.

Hamilton
Votto
Frazier
Bruce
Mes
Byrd
BP
Cozart

Or go with something a little crazy and lead off with Votto. Make the pitcher work right off the bat, that high OBP comes in handy, less RBI whining. Bat Hamilton 9th.

Also if everyone stays healthy that can be a top ten offense

I agree with ya zjc. The offense has the potential to be very tough. I think Votto and Bruce can rebound big this year.

 

[champyvol]

You are nit picking his K's when he's been very good the last 2 seasons? Is there a chance his age catches up with him this year? Sure. But that isn't something we can project.

2013 - 579 PA, .291/.336/.511, 24 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI
2014 - 637 PA, .264/.312/.445, 25 HR, 71 R, 85 RBI

Everyone's K rate seems to be going up. Even with his going up last year he still produced. I don't care how much he strikes out if he hits 20+ HR and drives in 75+.

May lose him to a drug screen though, haha.


I predict World Series champs. It must be miserable to always project gloom and doom.



I can't see BP batting 3rd, but you never know with Price. I'd probably go with this to start the season.

Hamilton
Votto
Frazier
Bruce
Mes
Byrd
BP
Cozart

Or go with something a little crazy and lead off with Votto. Make the pitcher work right off the bat, that high OBP comes in handy, less RBI whining. Bat Hamilton 9th.



I agree with ya zjc. The offense has the potential to be very tough. I think Votto and Bruce can rebound big this year.

no doom and gloom just keeping it real. price sucks as manager and the key to the season is vottos health. I don't know if you watched any of the spring training games but votto looked terrible much like last year. no where near 100%. so once again i'll say .500 or below.

 

[Appalachiamuck]

no doom and gloom just keeping it real. price sucks as manager and the key to the season is vottos health. I don't know if you watched any of the spring training games but votto looked terrible much like last year. no where near 100%. so once again i'll say .500 or below.

This may be the only time during the season I have a chance to be this optimistic, so I'm taking it! But I think we could end up somewhere around 88 wins if we catch some breaks. If not, it could be as bad as 70. If we're out of it after the ASG then I think it'll be a fire sale and we're staring at 70-75 wins.

I didn't get to watch any spring training, but it often doesn't translate to the regular season anyway.

 

[Vols4us]

Keeping it real bugs some folks, champy. They would rather live in fantasy baseball. There are good reasons the analysts have them finishing last or next to last in the division. We know what they are even if others don't want to acknowledge them. That doesn't stop any of us from wanting them to do well regardless of reality.

Actual line-up:
Hamilton
Votto
Frazier
Mes
Byrd
Bruce
BP
Cozart

Looks about right to start the season.

 

[Vols4us]

Don't agree on Byrd's SO's, Appa. This club was filled with SO's last season and stunk at RBI/RISP. Byrd sacrificed contact for power/RBIs the last couple of years. This club needs contact hitting. 185 SO's is a lot for anybody. That was even at a higher rate than the whiffmeister Jay Bruce, who will be starting in the OF with him. Our pre-season concern was his age combined with him reporting to camp grossly overweight per a trustworthy source that lives in AZ and who attends all of the ST games. Hopefully he will be more of a contact hitter this season.

 

[champyvol]

This may be the only time during the season I have a chance to be this optimistic, so I'm taking it! But I think we could end up somewhere around 88 wins if we catch some breaks. If not, it could be as bad as 70. If we're out of it after the ASG then I think it'll be a fire sale and we're staring at 70-75 wins.

I didn't get to watch any spring training, but it often doesn't translate to the regular season anyway.

haha I see your point. like the optimism.

 

[champyvol]

who does everybody think is going to win it all. I bought into the Nats at 7 to 1. crappy odds but I think they have a real shot.

 

[Appalachiamuck]

Keeping it real bugs some folks, champy. They would rather live in fantasy baseball. There are good reasons the analysts have them finishing last or next to last in the division. We know what they are even if others don't want to acknowledge them. That doesn't stop any of us from wanting them to do well regardless of reality.

Actual line-up:
Hamilton
Votto
Frazier
Mes
Byrd
Bruce
BP
Cozart

Looks about right to start the season.

There is a difference between being realistic while expressing hope and what y'all call "keeping it real." You think you're the only ones who have concerns about the potential weaknesses of this team?

Don't agree on Byrd's SO's, Appa. This club was filled with SO's last season and stunk at RBI/RISP. Byrd sacrificed contact for power/RBIs the last couple of years. This club needs contact hitting. 185 SO's is a lot for anybody. That was even at a higher rate than the whiffmeister Jay Bruce, who will be starting in the OF with him. Our pre-season concern was his age combined with him reporting to camp grossly overweight per a trustworthy source that lives in AZ and who attends all of the ST games. Hopefully he will be more of a contact hitter this season.

I'd like to see some stats to back up what you're saying about K's and our RISP performance.

Why do we need contact hitters with RISP?
K% in 2014
Carter 32%
Byrd 29%
Desmond 28%
Bruce 27%
Upton 27%
Stanton 27%
Moss 26%
Trout 26%

As we can see, strikeouts don't necessarily mean a player isn't very productive and won't drive in runs. Fwiw, Votto is a contact hitter and y'all don't like him either.

Where has it been mentioned that Byrd showed up to ST overweight? I've only skimmed the last couple pages so maybe I missed it. I'm not saying Byrd will be a world beater, by any means. I'm just saying he's been healthy and productive the last two seasons, despite a high K rate.

 

[Appalachiamuck]

To expand on K% vs RBI
12 of the top 30 RBI producers from 2014 had higher than league average K rates; league average was 20.4%.

 

[Appalachiamuck]

who does everybody think is going to win it all. I bought into the Nats at 7 to 1. crappy odds but I think they have a real shot.

Nats have to be the favorite. Best rotation going into the season, hands down, and altogether a well rounded team. I think the Cards, Pirates, Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals, Indians and Angels all have reasonable shots depending on injuries.

 

[Appalachiamuck]

I'd like to see some stats to back up what you're saying about K's and our RISP performance.

Found this, pretty interesting...
MLB Stats - MLB Team Runners Left in Scoring Position per Game on TeamRankings.com

Fifth best RISP LOB per game.

Some more interesting info.

All of MLB

Reds

I don't think K rate is a huge problem. They were a bit unlucky last year as you can see with BABIP.

We probably need to take a step back and remember we were without a healthy Votto, Bruce and BP. I think if they're healthy we'll see a much better offense this year.

EDIT: To put a nail in the coffin...
The top 5 scoring teams in MLB last year K% with RISP
Angels 25.1%
Tigers 21%
Rockies 20.7%
A's 19.3%
Blue Jays 21.4%
Reds 22.4%

The biggest difference between those teams and the Reds was having RISP at all. Reds had 1,235 AB with RISP. Those teams had a minimum of 1,350 AB with RISP.

 

[TBrown]

He doesn't understand stats. Save your breath.

 

[champyvol]

Nats have to be the favorite. Best rotation going into the season, hands down, and altogether a well rounded team. I think the Cards, Pirates, Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals, Indians and Angels all have reasonable shots depending on injuries.

Indians were tempting at 22-1