Da Reds thread

#11,226
#11,226
TBrown said:
He doesn't understand stats. Save your breath.
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i'm not a big stats guy. it really won't matter much what byrd does if votto isn't healthy. stats wise votto is the best player in baseball. when you look at him play now he looks like a 260 hitter with 8 hr's and 45 rbi's. with every new year stats are garbage in my opinion. past is the past.
 
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#11,227
#11,227
champyvol said:
i'm not a big stats guy. it really won't matter much what byrd does if votto isn't healthy. stats wise votto is the best player in baseball. when you look at him play now he looks like a 260 hitter with 8 hr's and 45 rbi's. with every new year stats are garbage in my opinion. past is the past.
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What you just said makes absolutely no sense.
 
#11,233
#11,233
161 more to go. Billy, Joey and Todd bailed Price out. I want Joey to play like this. Forget the HRs. Get hits, walks and move runners while playing good defense. Be a great teammate. Do what you need to do for the club to win. If that happens they have a puncher's chance if there are enough pitchers besides Cueto, Leake and Chappy. Cueto is a stud. He is going break the bank with his new contract if this continues. Total control of what he does.
 
#11,235
#11,235
Votto had a different attitude in his interview. He was humble. Told the story about Cairo telling him no matter who you think you are I don't care. It means nothing.

Maybe he's going to turn it around
 
#11,241
#11,241
Didn't get to keep up with the game last night, but looks like a good one. Votto driving in walk offs and stealing bases!? Boom.

edit: Billy Hamilton!!
 
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#11,243
#11,243
Appalachiamuck said:
Didn't get to keep up with the game last night, but looks like a good one. Votto driving in walk offs and stealing bases!? Boom.

edit: Billy Hamilton!!
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votto and billy did a hell of a job. worried though votto looked gimpy running the bases. welch even said something about it. hopefully nothing serious because he came though in a big way last night .
 
#11,249
#11,249
volatil said:
Votto had a different attitude in his interview. He was humble. Told the story about Cairo telling him no matter who you think you are I don't care. It means nothing.

Maybe he's going to turn it around
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Buzzed his hair for a fresh new start. Being a good teammate. There's hope for the guy after all.
 
#11,250
#11,250
Appalachiamuck said:
Found this, pretty interesting...
MLB Stats - MLB Team Runners Left in Scoring Position per Game on TeamRankings.com

Fifth best RISP LOB per game.

Some more interesting info.

All of MLB
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Reds
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I don't think K rate is a huge problem. They were a bit unlucky last year as you can see with BABIP.

We probably need to take a step back and remember we were without a healthy Votto, Bruce and BP. I think if they're healthy we'll see a much better offense this year.

EDIT: To put a nail in the coffin...
The top 5 scoring teams in MLB last year K% with RISP
Angels 25.1%
Tigers 21%
Rockies 20.7%
A's 19.3%
Blue Jays 21.4%
Reds 22.4%

The biggest difference between those teams and the Reds was having RISP at all. Reds had 1,235 AB with RISP. Those teams had a minimum of 1,350 AB with RISP.
Click to expand...

You can quote stats and still miss when the stats are most applicable. You can have a handful of games that went very well for a particular stat and skew a whole season if you do not remove the outliers and tie the stats to winning and losing. Key hits, my man, key hits. Maybe I should have said key hits with RISP leading to RBI's that matter in my post.

So to keep it simple:

In 2012: scored 669 runs, gave up 588 = 97 wins.
In 2013: scored 698 runs, gave up 589 = 90 wins.
In 2014: scored 595 runs, gave up 612 = 76 wins.

So the high OBP of Votto in 2013 with low RBI production in the #3 spot did not result in more wins despite scoring more runs - there were 7 less wins. Without Votto in 2012 when they got 3 months of abnormally high production from Ludwick they actual won 7 more games than 2013 despite scoring 29 fewer runs on the season. The reason was Ludwick and others were getting key hits to drive in runs when it mattered most for the win column. When the offensive spigot turned off in 2014 by over 100 runs due to injuries, 3rd base coach Smith sending runners to get thrown out at home 26 or more times, Price kept using Groover, Ondrusuk, Parra ad nauseum, etc. - it all tanked despite getting the best starting pitching in years. They were upside down in one run game losses.

IMO champy is also right on throwing out the stats at the start of each year. If you didn't start fresh you would have no reason to believe this team could contend - which is shared by 90+% of the analysts that are predicting a 4th or 5th place finish in the division. Use them as tools to work on deficiencies and spot trends of opponents, but numbers and situations change. When the season is over you will be able to tie the production of runs scored versus runs allowed to the win column. What you will have to remember, or track, is all the key hits. Game #1 Todd Frazier. Game #2 Several guys with the final key hit being Joey Votto. Game #3 Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, Marlon Byrd. The later two were winning one run games. A better start to the season.

And I do understand stats - all of them. I just don't worship them or base analysis totally on quantitative measures or totally subjective valuations.
 
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