East Tennessee Weather II

#201
#201
Forecasted high 38

Actual high 34 (My area)

Winds still coming out of the north. (My area & Knoxville)

Radar showing a good bit of moisture.
 
#202
#202
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
323 PM EST sun Jan 7 2018

Short term...(tonight through monday)...
cold airmass in place with weak system headed our way. Expecting
very light freezing rain in the area, but then temps in the
afternoon trying to warm up. Temperature forecast is very
challenging, with warm air advection trying to happen, but night-
time cooling and drainage fighting against the warm advection. Also,
after sunrise, northern half of the valley locations may struggle a
bit to rise above freezing. As in previous events of this nature,
the cold surface air allows the warm advection to override it.
Looked at some hi-res models and some of them show freezing temps
lingering into the afternoon Monday and very light winds in the.
Upper Valley. One other slight factor--looks like there will be
weak downsloping/warming in the eastern mountains and foothills, but
hard to determine how much of this weak flow would be able to
penetrate cold air near the surface and how much it might be able to
delay the onset of the precip. Have ended up going with a multi-
section advisory with earlier times in the west and later times in
the east with mainly patchy problems with ice for roads--think
precip will be too light while temps are below freezing for trees
and utilities to have issues. Adjusted temperature curve for faster
falling temps in the evening, then slowing later as clouds and
precip move in, and also have the temperature curve for Monday with
a very slow rise into the early afternoon, then rising faster late
in the day.
 
#203
#203
I expect more changes to come.
 

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#205
#205
Did she really say it’s not a big deal on channel 10? Wow... I just hope it does come before daybreak so the word can get out. All the models are starting to come in with more juice. Temps are already below freezing. Cloud cover is scattered. Winds still coming out of the north.
 
#206
#206
Ground temps will be below freezing for most of this as well.. so, even if it’s above 32• it’ll freeze.
 
#207
#207
rocktopper16 said:
Did she really say it’s not a big deal on channel 10? Wow... I just hope it does come before daybreak so the word can get out. All the models are starting to come in with more juice. Temps are already below freezing. Cloud cover is scattered. Winds still coming out of the north.
Click to expand...

What’s the timing of all this?
 
#209
#209
Are they thinking that the moisture will evaporate before it hits the ground? Our local weather people have become amazingly accurate, and as much as we want to pick on them, they’re rarely wrong.
 
#210
#210
davethevol said:
Are they thinking that the moisture will evaporate before it hits the ground? Our local weather people have become amazingly accurate, and as much as we want to pick on them, they’re rarely wrong.
Click to expand...

They’re expecting it to arrive later and be patchy. I’m not picking but for her to say it won’t be bad is not good. Any ice on the road is not good.
 
#225
#225
From what wbir just showed it looks like it won’t get to Knoxville until later in the morning when it’s warmer
 
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