East Tennessee Weather

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#8,627
#8,627
Vol knight said:
More like strengthened. Between Nashville and Crossville, there was no Severe T-Storm Warnings or even a Significant Weather Advisory. Once it reached the plateau, it became Severe and started to significantly increase speed. It did weaken some once it hit west Knoxville, but we're still getting slammed with very heavy rain. I expect a flood advisory or flash flood warning to be issued soon.
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There was far more red on the radar when it was still on the plateau. That seemed to exponentially deminish coming off it. I don't disagree with the system speeding up though. We definitely benefitted from it hitting at night though. If it had come in when it was 70 something degrees we'd be in a world of hurt.
 
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#8,628
#8,628
Coug said:
There was far more red on the radar when it was still on the plateau. That seemed to exponentially deminish coming off it. I don't disagree with the system speeding up though. We definitely benefitted from it hitting at night though. If it had come in when it was 70 something degrees we'd be in a world of hurt.
Click to expand...

It had nothing to do with temps. Even if it had hit us during the day, the dew point and humidity were kinda dry. We had and still have the favorable wind shear, but we never had the favorable instability (MLCAPE) at any point of time.

As a side note, the red on the radar doesn't designate the severity of storms. Red means very heavy precipitation. You can't directly see wind on a base reflectivity radar.
 
#8,629
#8,629
.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 915 AM EST

* AT 608 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING MINOR
FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...OAK RIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...CLINTON...
ALCOA...GATLINBURG...FARRAGUT...PIGEON FORGE...OLIVER SPRINGS...
LOUISVILLE...PLAINVIEW...ROCKFORD...EAGLETON VILLAGE...STRAWBERRY
PLAINS...HALLS...LAKE CITY...NORRIS...FRIENDSVILLE AND PITTMAN
CENTER.
Click to expand...


To add to this, there's a Flash Flood Warning for Loudon county.
 
#8,633
#8,633
How are the models looking? Weather Channel changed from last night 45HI/29LO 60% Snow Showers on Monday to today 39HI/26LO 80% of Wintry mix and snow accumul. of >1"
 
#8,635
#8,635
First guess.

1-3 for the valley.

Higher up you are expect greater totals.

Guess Will be subject to change.
 
#8,637
#8,637
Too early but it looks like Tuesday-Wednesday could bring snow..right now trace to an inch in the valley..up to 4 inches and higher in mountains and upper ET
gfs_asnow_us_26.png
 
#8,638
#8,638
VolnJC said:
Too early but it looks like Tuesday-Wednesday could bring snow..right now trace to an inch in the valley..up to 4 inches and higher in mountains and upper ET
gfs_asnow_us_26.png
Click to expand...

JC, I forgot to mention something to you. That GFS model from tropical tidbits won't be as good for this upcoming system. That version of the GFS assumes a 10 to 1 snow/rain ratio (1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow). The ratio for this system will likely be 20-1 for the valley, meaning you can double the amounts shown on that model.
 
#8,640
#8,640
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for all of East Tennessee. It talks about the upcoming system, but doesn't mention any snowfall amounts.

...WINTER RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BESIDES THE SNOW...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
Click to expand...
 
#8,641
#8,641
Before I post this model run, I need to add the following. This model is definitely subject to change and it should not be assumed at this time that the snowfall amounts will be accurate. We'll have to keep our eyes on this system.

Here's the 12z EPS control run for 9-10 days from today.

ZqtSMMK.png


It's showing about a foot of snow for the valley.
 
#8,642
#8,642
well this doesn't sound good,I need to be in Kingsport come Tuesday,which is around an 80 minute drive from my place and out in the sticks with no snow removal either:)

if it is less than an inch or so,I should be good to go or should I go to the grocery store,buy toilet paper and milk lol and be prepared first ?
 
#8,643
#8,643
Some interesting info on the weather models:

Each month, the models are given a verification score, which shows which models performed the best in a certain time period for the month. The following scores are for last month in a 5 day period.

1. ECMWF parallel: 0.934
2. ECMWF: 0.928
3. UKMET: 0.914
4. GFS parallel: 0.911
5. GFS: 0.909
6. CMC: 0.905
 
#8,644
#8,644
I've no idea what that means Vol knight lol all I want to know is there going to be snow on the roads from Thorn Hill to Kingsport on Tuesday ?
 
#8,646
#8,646
Vol knight said:
Before I post this model run, I need to add the following. This model is definitely subject to change and it should not be assumed at this time that the snowfall amounts will be accurate. We'll have to keep our eyes on this system.

Here's the 12z EPS control run for 9-10 days from today.

ZqtSMMK.png


It's showing about a foot of snow for the valley.
Click to expand...

Solid snow.
 
#8,650
#8,650
I'm pretty sure the control model Vol knight posted is for 9-10 days out and not for the possible snow this Monday/Tuesday.

Right now 1"in the valley for this Monday/Tuesday system is all I'm hearing right now.
 
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