East Tennessee Weather

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#8,651
#8,651
TechnoVol said:
I'm pretty sure the control model Vol knight posted is for 9-10 days out and not for the possible snow this Monday/Tuesday.

Right now 1"in the valley for this Monday/Tuesday system is all I'm hearing right now.
Click to expand...

I did say that the control run was for 9-10 days out. As far as this upcoming system goes, I'm leaning towards 1-3 inches.
 
#8,652
#8,652
Coug said:
Well if you live in the valley it doesn't matter how close you get to the day of a system arriving as we learned a couple weeks ago.
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You can point to that weekend storm all you want, but then I can point to the Wednesday storm that dumped 2-3 inches in the Knoxville area, which is what the models were showing.
 
#8,653
#8,653
Vol knight said:
You can point to that weekend storm all you want, but then I can point to the Wednesday storm that dumped 2-3 inches in the Knoxville area, which is what the models were showing.
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Exactly. It's almost like he just shows up in this thread just to spew his regular BS to you and the others that bring good info. Surely not.
 
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#8,654
#8,654
Right now it doesn't look like a huge snow maker..maybe an inch in the valley and more along the plateau and mountains
gfs_asnow_us_18.png
 
#8,655
#8,655
VolnJC said:
Right now it doesn't look like a huge snow maker..maybe an inch in the valley and more along the plateau and mountains
gfs_asnow_us_18.png
Click to expand...

Here's the 18z GFS with an adjusted ratio. Again, using TT's GFS model with a 10-1 ratio isn't accurate with this system.

acckucherasnowrv.png
 
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#8,657
#8,657
Vol knight said:
Here's the 18z GFS with an adjusted ratio. Again, using TT's GFS model with a 10-1 ratio isn't accurate with this system.

acckucherasnowrv.png
Click to expand...

Yeah it would be nice but in my experience these northern clipper 20 to 1 systems are moisture starved by the time they reach us..combined with it starting out as rain for most of the day is the reason why I think we don't get much...WBIR and Weather Channel saying same thing

CakVZBjUEAAKG0U.png:large
 
#8,658
#8,658
VolnJC said:
Yeah it would be nice but in my experience these northern clipper 20 to 1 systems are moisture starved by the time they reach us..combined with it starting out as rain for most of the day is the reason why I think we don't get much...WBIR and Weather Channel saying same thing

CakVZBjUEAAKG0U.png:large
Click to expand...
Yep local news sounds like bulk of the moisture will come while we're above freezing. February has been the month we get a decent snow fall the last few years though, so the next few weeks we might see something
 
#8,659
#8,659
VolnJC said:
Yeah it would be nice but in my experience these northern clipper 20 to 1 systems are moisture starved by the time they reach us..combined with it starting out as rain for most of the day is the reason why I think we don't get much...WBIR and Weather Channel saying same thing

CakVZBjUEAAKG0U.png:large
Click to expand...

With only 10% of the great lakes covered in ice, this system will be able to pull some good moisture from the lakes.

Also, I'm not quite as convinced that it will mostly be rain, as the air aloft is very cold.
 
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#8,660
#8,660
Well guys, it looks like we will be dealing with a La Nina next winter. This is when the equatorial pacific waters are much cooler than average. What that does is it pushes the southern jet stream north of us, and it typically causes us to have a drier and warmer than average winter in the South. The main concern with La Ninas is droughts.
 
#8,661
#8,661
mrorange211 said:
Exactly. It's almost like he just shows up in this thread just to spew his regular BS to you and the others that bring good info. Surely not.
Click to expand...

Yes! Tar and feather the guy who's merely attempting to bring some semblance of reality to a conversation about snow in Knoxville. How dare he try and ruin my winter wonderland dreams! He'll probably try and tell me Santa isn't real next. :mad:

Don't take it personally man. I like snow just as much as every other snow lover. What upsets me is when a meteorologist clearly sees that a storm is a bust but continues to tell the general public "it still looks like 1 to 3 inches is going to fall."
 
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#8,664
#8,664
This whole situation is just so confusing. The local news stations are essentially forecasting mostly rain on Monday with a changeover to snow on Monday night, but the temperatures on the models in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere suggest mostly frozen precipitation.
 
#8,665
#8,665
Vol knight said:
This whole situation is just so confusing. The local news stations are essentially forecasting mostly rain on Monday with a changeover to snow on Monday night, but the temperatures on the models in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere suggest mostly frozen precipitation.
Click to expand...

Why are they saying rain?
 
#8,666
#8,666
Vol knight said:
This whole situation is just so confusing. The local news stations are essentially forecasting mostly rain on Monday with a changeover to snow on Monday night, but the temperatures on the models in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere suggest mostly frozen precipitation.
Click to expand...
I noticed this as well. It looks like the rain/snow line is almost to the gulf coast way below us when the rain gets here if I'm seeing it correctly.
 
#8,670
#8,670
RockyTop411 said:
Is that saying 1-2" for Knoxville?

Thanks for posting these, VK. :hi:
Click to expand...

This particular model run is saying 1-3 for the Central Valley (Knoxville).

Just something to remember: When me, RT, JC, ect. post model runs, they are guidance, not exact forecasts or gospel. To make a forecast, you have to gather many different models, then blend the models that you think are close to the right forecast based on temperatures, amounts of moisture, ect. That's how meteorologists form a forecast.

I wish I could post the Euro, but I don't have enough money for it right now.
 
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#8,671
#8,671
Vol knight said:
This particular model run is saying 1-3 for the Central Valley (Knoxville).

Just something to remember: When me, RT, JC, ect. post model runs, they are guidance, not exact forecasts or gospel. To make a forecast, you have to gather many different models, then blend the models that you think are close to the right forecast based on temperatures, amounts of moisture, ect. That's how meteorologists form a forecast.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

I noticed it says "Valid Friday Feb 12" in the top left. What does that mean? I looked at WC and the only times that there is a possibility for snow is Monday/Tuesday.
 
#8,672
#8,672
RockyTop411 said:
Thanks.

I noticed it says "Valid Friday Feb 12" in the top left. What does that mean? I looked at WC and the only times that there is a possibility for snow is Monday/Tuesday.
Click to expand...

That means that this model run shows the total snow amounts from now until Friday.
 
#8,673
#8,673
Here's something else to consider. With the scattered nature of the snow showers, there's a chance for the sun to come out between the waves of snow. If it does come out, then it will melt some of the snow and affect snow totals.

I'll say this, this is one of the hardest storms to predict the exact amount of snowfall. Not only is there a potential sun factor, but there's also the fact that the scattered nature of the storms means that some areas in the valley might get hit with more snow than others in the valley.

For example: Corryton could see 2 inches, while Farragut sees a dusting or vise versa.
 
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